Most Significant Winter Storm of the Season, MLK Day

powderfreak

New member
Just as a heads up...do not under-estimate the arctic air. I believe
someone sees a significant icing event, and someone sees a significant snow
event...while its likely just rain south of the NY/PA border or MA/CT border.

I'm going to try and write something up tonight or even tomorrow once I feel
a little more comfortable with zones of different precip type, but this is
going to be dependent on latitude, not necessarily elevation. The fact that
its 16F in Burlington for the 6pm news for the first time this season,
should show that the cold air is becoming available for a significant winter
storm. There really is cold air in Canada, too.

So we'll have pieces of energy and warm air advection for Fri/Sat/Sun with
the potential for light snowfall amounts of up to 2" per day. Not much more
than flurries or maybe a burst of snow each day. And this is in the
mountains. Nothing more than light flurries and no accums in the valleys.
Then, low pressure gets organized in the southern Plains, cold high pressure
drills low level cold air, sub-freezing, down to I-90...and we see what
happens. At some point during the storm, which would occur on Monday right
now, enough warm air will likely work in aloft to change precip to sleet to
the international border. With that said, the GFS has printed out 6-11" of
snow for BTV during its past three runs, and personally I like the idea of a
band of 6-12" in the far north (BTV or Montreal, not sure) with a zone of up
to 6" but also with significant freezing rain. Then a zone of all freezing
rain which could be a major problem for some locations from southern VT,
southern NH, back through Albany and the Catskills.

Bottom line is, with total liquid amounts ranging from .5" to nearly 2" for
the three day holiday weekend...this will be a major precip producer.
Travel will be impacted across the north country on Monday. Plan on it.

-Scott
 

Ryan

New member
Well it looks like it is going to be a not so fun ride for the weekend. I'm in the very NW tip of Pennsylvania and just south of I-80. I really hope that this coming pressure has just a little more southerly oomph than it looks like as of now. Maybe we will get lucky and it will take a turn.
 

Harvey

Administrator
Staff member
Can you smell the smoke? It's the gears turning in Scott's brain, synthesizing the most recent models input. I think it's going to be GOOD. This from the NWS boys and girls in Albany:

HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE? BASED ON 06Z GUIDANCE...THE ELEMENTS WERE TRENDING COLDER...LOOKING LIKE THE ONLY LIQUID RAIN WOULD FALL WELL SOUTH...WHILE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD FALL IN OUR IMMEDIATE REGION...AND MOSTLY SNOW NORTH. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUED THE COLDER TREND...WITH THE ICING THREAT WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...SLEET AND SNOW AROUND OUR REGION...AND ALL SNOW NORTH. THE BEST UPPER AIR SUPPORT STILL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE SOUTH OF US. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND THE 12Z EUROPEAN STILL INDICATES A WARMER SCENARIO FAVORING MORE RAIN SOUTH. FOR NOW...BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER.
 
Top