powderfreak
New member
Here's the deal:
Precipitation will spread over NY-VT-NH throughout the night...starting
off as rain everywhere except far NW NY and the higher elevations in the
Adirondacks. By 6am, its raining everywhere with snow confined to the
Adirondacks and NW NY...and starting to transition to snow above 3,000ft
in the Green Mtns. The change over will occur from NW to SE as the low
wraps in colder air. It will also occur in the higher elevations before
the valley. I expect the CT River Valley in southern VT will be the last
to change over, along with Champlain Valley regions on the eastern side of
the lake. This final transition doesn't look to occur until 4pm. Rain
might begin mixing with large wet snowflakes in the Champlain Valley as
early as noon but I dont expect a change over till 4pm. So full change to
snow times: 6am Adirondacks, NW NY; 10am 3,000ft Elevations of the Greens
from NW to SE; 12am 1,000ft elevations of the Greens; 4pm Champlain Valley
and CT River Valley.
For Albany on southward: Change to snow occurs around noon in the
Catskills westward through Binghamton above 1,500ft and everywhere west of
Albany by 4pm. It may come down heavy for an hour or two even as far
south as Albany in the valleys, Catskills and Berkshires in the slightly
higher terrain either side of the Hudson River Valley. For Randy,
depending on your time, if you are going to be after 4pm, expect a good
chance of some snow right into the Hudson River Valley near Albany. South
of ALB on I-87 I wouldn't expect any problems, however, if you head off on
any side roads into the Catskills or towards Binghamton, you'll likely hit
snow on the order of 1-4".
Appears precip will be further west than the eastward NAM and more in line
with the GFS. Maximum convergence, lift, and snow growth in the
deformation band which should move from the Catskills NNE through VT.
This deformation band has been looking stronger and stronger on the models
since noon today. The low pressure system is much lower than models have
predicted already and a stronger system will make it easier for a strong
cold conveyor belt to develop on the backside. After the change to snow
in Vermont, it should come down heavily before tapering off around
midnight. The column will be isothermal for most locations of VT and NY,
and so it will be a wet snow to start off with...but strong lift and best
snowgrowth in the max omega lift area should ensure some 2" per hour
banded snowfall. Don't tell anyone I said this, but maybe even some
thunder snow if it all comes together as there appears to be a slight
unstable layer in the BTV sounding for tomorrow afternoon. All of this
will happen really fast tomorrow afternoon and evening that could make the
evening commute tough around upstate NY and Vermont. 6pm drive on I-89
tomorrow could be messy. All precipitation except higher elevation snow
showers should be done by around midnight tomorrow. Snow should continue
in the higher peaks and north facing slopes of the Adirondacks and the NW
facing slopes of the Greens through Wednesday morning...before stopping
until Thursday morning and continuing off and on till the weekend.
Needless to say, some ski areas in New England, especially Vermont, could
make out like bandits (18"+) by Saturday afternoon.
Total Amounts by Wednesday Morning:
Albany area, hills of northern MA and extreme southern NH: Coating-2" with
isolated 3" amounts in highest terrain.
Catskills, Berkshires, and hills across central New York: 2-4" isolated 5"
Adirondacks: 4" lower elevations in southern Adirondacks to 9" highest
elevation towns and in far northern areas.
Green Mountains south of Killington: 4-8"
Green Mountains north of Killington: 8-12" with maybe 15" up towards Jay
from longer, steadier wrap around snow.
Immediate Champlain Valley: 2-5"
White Mountains: 2-5" in the far north and above 1,500ft. Any elevation
below 1,500ft and south of a Rumford, ME to Conway, NH to Lebanon, NH
won't see any real accumulation.
After these accumulations...look for another 4-8" mountain snowfall on
Thursday and Friday in the 'Dacks, Greens, and Whites. Should be a
general 6" spread across interior New England, but isolated 12" amounts in
colder, higher elevation spots. Moist upslope snowfall should add on a
few inches in the northern Green Mountains by Saturday. That's a whole
other system but should provide snow cover to a lot of people on Thursday
even if tomorrow doesn't pan out as it'll be much colder meaning no precip
type problems.
Much colder weather (temperatures should not go above freezing in the
mountains from tomorrow night till at least early next week) through the
weekend will ensure that the snowguns are blasting away across the
northeast and the snow stays on the ground. Happy Thanksgiving.
-Scott
Precipitation will spread over NY-VT-NH throughout the night...starting
off as rain everywhere except far NW NY and the higher elevations in the
Adirondacks. By 6am, its raining everywhere with snow confined to the
Adirondacks and NW NY...and starting to transition to snow above 3,000ft
in the Green Mtns. The change over will occur from NW to SE as the low
wraps in colder air. It will also occur in the higher elevations before
the valley. I expect the CT River Valley in southern VT will be the last
to change over, along with Champlain Valley regions on the eastern side of
the lake. This final transition doesn't look to occur until 4pm. Rain
might begin mixing with large wet snowflakes in the Champlain Valley as
early as noon but I dont expect a change over till 4pm. So full change to
snow times: 6am Adirondacks, NW NY; 10am 3,000ft Elevations of the Greens
from NW to SE; 12am 1,000ft elevations of the Greens; 4pm Champlain Valley
and CT River Valley.
For Albany on southward: Change to snow occurs around noon in the
Catskills westward through Binghamton above 1,500ft and everywhere west of
Albany by 4pm. It may come down heavy for an hour or two even as far
south as Albany in the valleys, Catskills and Berkshires in the slightly
higher terrain either side of the Hudson River Valley. For Randy,
depending on your time, if you are going to be after 4pm, expect a good
chance of some snow right into the Hudson River Valley near Albany. South
of ALB on I-87 I wouldn't expect any problems, however, if you head off on
any side roads into the Catskills or towards Binghamton, you'll likely hit
snow on the order of 1-4".
Appears precip will be further west than the eastward NAM and more in line
with the GFS. Maximum convergence, lift, and snow growth in the
deformation band which should move from the Catskills NNE through VT.
This deformation band has been looking stronger and stronger on the models
since noon today. The low pressure system is much lower than models have
predicted already and a stronger system will make it easier for a strong
cold conveyor belt to develop on the backside. After the change to snow
in Vermont, it should come down heavily before tapering off around
midnight. The column will be isothermal for most locations of VT and NY,
and so it will be a wet snow to start off with...but strong lift and best
snowgrowth in the max omega lift area should ensure some 2" per hour
banded snowfall. Don't tell anyone I said this, but maybe even some
thunder snow if it all comes together as there appears to be a slight
unstable layer in the BTV sounding for tomorrow afternoon. All of this
will happen really fast tomorrow afternoon and evening that could make the
evening commute tough around upstate NY and Vermont. 6pm drive on I-89
tomorrow could be messy. All precipitation except higher elevation snow
showers should be done by around midnight tomorrow. Snow should continue
in the higher peaks and north facing slopes of the Adirondacks and the NW
facing slopes of the Greens through Wednesday morning...before stopping
until Thursday morning and continuing off and on till the weekend.
Needless to say, some ski areas in New England, especially Vermont, could
make out like bandits (18"+) by Saturday afternoon.
Total Amounts by Wednesday Morning:
Albany area, hills of northern MA and extreme southern NH: Coating-2" with
isolated 3" amounts in highest terrain.
Catskills, Berkshires, and hills across central New York: 2-4" isolated 5"
Adirondacks: 4" lower elevations in southern Adirondacks to 9" highest
elevation towns and in far northern areas.
Green Mountains south of Killington: 4-8"
Green Mountains north of Killington: 8-12" with maybe 15" up towards Jay
from longer, steadier wrap around snow.
Immediate Champlain Valley: 2-5"
White Mountains: 2-5" in the far north and above 1,500ft. Any elevation
below 1,500ft and south of a Rumford, ME to Conway, NH to Lebanon, NH
won't see any real accumulation.
After these accumulations...look for another 4-8" mountain snowfall on
Thursday and Friday in the 'Dacks, Greens, and Whites. Should be a
general 6" spread across interior New England, but isolated 12" amounts in
colder, higher elevation spots. Moist upslope snowfall should add on a
few inches in the northern Green Mountains by Saturday. That's a whole
other system but should provide snow cover to a lot of people on Thursday
even if tomorrow doesn't pan out as it'll be much colder meaning no precip
type problems.
Much colder weather (temperatures should not go above freezing in the
mountains from tomorrow night till at least early next week) through the
weekend will ensure that the snowguns are blasting away across the
northeast and the snow stays on the ground. Happy Thanksgiving.
-Scott
