New England/Northeast Foliage Reports?

[berkshireskier]

Yes, it has been a disappointing "leaf peeping" season (in terms of color) throughout almost all of New England this year. Some people are blaming the prolonged drought afflicting almost all of the Northeast., plus we had a very mild September. The colors, especially on the Sugar Maples, are very drab, mostly turning a brownish-yellow and then dropping to the ground. My wife and I drove up to Montreal two days ago on the Northway from Albany straight up through the Adirondacks and the colors were still fairly good at the lower elevations in the 'Daks", with the poplars (I think) having the brightest yellow color. Peak has passed in the higher elevations. Even in Montreal, the colors weren't that great and it's been a late Fall up there.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Yes, it has been a disappointing "leaf peeping" season (in terms of color) throughout almost all of New England this year. Some people are blaming the prolonged drought afflicting almost all of the Northeast., plus we had a very mild September.

This is a key quote from the snowmaking thread:

like warming winters, recurring late-summer droughts are part of a larger climate change-driven pattern

Our Septembers and Octobers across the past two decades have been glorious from a sunshine perspective (virtually nonstop blue skies); however, they're increasingly bone dry -- more like what I experienced living in Albuquerque and Denver/Boulder than the northeast.

 

[berkshireskier]

This is a key quote from the snowmaking thread:

Our Septembers and Octobers across the past two decades have been glorious from a sunshine perspective (virtually nonstop blue skies); however, they're increasingly bone dry -- more like what I experienced living in Albuquerque and Denver/Boulder than the northeast.

Yes, so true, and, hence, the numerous forest fires throughout the Northeast last Fall. I never remember forest fires being an issue in New England before.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I never remember forest fires being an issue in New England before.

Right and we had fires in northern NJ, which is bonkers.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Our Septembers and Octobers across the past two decades have been glorious from a sunshine perspective (virtually nonstop blue skies); however, they're increasingly bone dry -

Recency bias from the past two years. I downloaded this file of NYC monthly precipitation since 1869.

2021​

2.31​

5.13​

3.41​

2.69​

4.36​

2.62​

11.09​

10.32​

10.03​

5.26​

1.12​

1.39​

59.73​

2022​

4.29​

3.23​

2.39​

4.53​

4.52​

2.92​

4.55​

1.71​

4.10​

5.08​

3.15​

5.83​

46.30​

2023​

4.38​

1.28​

3.32​

7.70​

1.28​

1.62​

5.34​

6.56​

14.25​

3.90​

2.95​

6.71​

59.29​

2024​

5.28​

2.05​

9.06​

3.47​

4.11​

1.71​

4.20​

7.02​

1.58​

0.01​

3.35​

4.53​

46.37​

YEAR

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

ANNUAL

average

3.51​

3.32​

4.01​

3.74​

3.70​

3.63​

4.39​

4.45​

3.92​

3.72​

3.53​

3.69​

45.64​

stdev

1.62​

1.45​

1.88​

1.95​

1.97​

1.99​

2.28​

2.72​

2.78​

2.51​

2.07​

1.77​

8.33​

since

3.44​

3.19​

4.22​

4.34​

4.03​

4.60​

5.07​

5.16​

4.79​

4.54​

3.47​

4.60​

51.45​

2000

1.14​

1.68​

2.36​

2.46​

1.74​

2.63​

2.26​

3.60​

3.45​

3.26​

1.69​

1.64​

8.87​

​

​

difference

1.16​

1.22​

1.22​

​

​

​

1.32​

1.24​

1.30​

September/October 2024 were unusually dry. This year June-August were 36% below average though September had 4.15 inches.

But note that August-October from 2000-2024 were 20% rainier than the long term average since 1869, and the standard deviations rose in reasonable proportion to the averages. Therefore the narrative

recurring late-summer droughts are part of a larger climate change-driven pattern

is false for NYC and safe to say for James' region. I'm not going to round up any more data but if anyone in New England wants to make this assertion, they need to provide some data to back it up.

From James' go-to source, the NY Post on Sept. 5:

Despite the dryness, the city’s six reservoirs have been staying steady, falling just 2% below their storage capacities. “There is no concern about drought at this time,” a spokesperson for the city Department of Environmental Protection told The Post.

The link is current and shows reservoirs at 93% of normal today. Rainfall numbers in that link differ from NYC Central Park and are probably from the watershed region.

 

[berkshireskier]

This is my memory, too, Tony, backed up by your stats above. Last Fall was dry and this year too (so far) but I don't remember it being unusually dry in previous years in the Fall. This just proves my thesis that the weather in New England can be extremely variable (hence, the famous quote from Mark Twain, about "if you don't like the weather, just wait a minute"). I do think there is some longer term evidence (going back to 1970 or so) that the Winters have been getting warmer and wetter over the last 50 plus years.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Winters have been getting warmer and wetter

Not more precipitation, but some rain that used to be snow. I still believe that issue in the Northeast is more acute in the shoulder seasons though.

 

[EMSC]

Yes, so true, and, hence, the numerous forest fires throughout the Northeast last Fall. I never remember forest fires being an issue in New England before.

As backed up by Tony's data, why do you think there are/were fire lookout towers built in the various mountain ranges in the Northeast?

Primarily due to the inconsistent but occasional very dry summers/falls.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

While we're 7-10 days from our usual peak period here in northern New Jersey, I can confirm that the foliage is mezzo-mezzo at best. The drought has definitely done a number on the autumn scenery with mostly dull yellows and golds and very little of the dazzling oranges, reds, and purples that we NEers normally enjoy. My father-in-law just returned from two weeks in Maine and New Hampshire and said that it was likewise OK but not fabulous up there.

From today's MTB ride:

The dreaded dry creek effect:

In the following shots, you can see that the overstory has already lost most of its leaves:

Oh well, it was a nice day and at least the dry conditions haven't affected the intoxicating (to me) fall fragrance. Post pix if you got 'em!

 

[Sbooker]

While we're 7-10 days from our usual peak period here in northern New Jersey, I can confirm that the foliage is mezzo-mezzo at best. The drought has definitely done a number on the autumn scenery with mostly dull yellows and golds and very little of the dazzling oranges, reds, and purples that we NEers normally enjoy. My father-in-law just returned from two weeks in Maine and New Hampshire and said that it was likewise OK but not fabulous up there.

From today's MTB ride:
View attachment 47817

The dreaded dry creek effect:
View attachment 47816

In the following shots, you can see that the overstory has already lost most of its leaves:
View attachment 47815

View attachment 47819

View attachment 47820

View attachment 47821

Oh well, it was a nice day and at least the dry conditions haven't affected the intoxicating (to me) fall fragrance. Post pix if you got 'em!

If that is disappointing I’ll be impressed if I go in a disappointing year. It looks lovely to me.

I had planned to visit this year but those plans were stymied by my dad having some medical issues. Won’t get there next year either as we’re going to Slovenia/Dolomites in late September for hiking.
Might have to be 2027.