Patrick's Eastern Closing Thread

[Tony Crocker]

Eastern Closing Thread - Part 1

Here Comes the Rain - Eastern Closing Thread - Part 2

I disagree with Patrick's comment

This ski season was great for snow conservation (ie. cold and less thaws).

So far I have the Vermont ski season at 25 by the standards of this chart and it's likely to stay that way.

Patrick might disagree with my criteria that an area has to be at least half open to be worth skiing and merit a C grade and any points on that chart. However that criteria has been applied consistently over the past 20 years so this season stacks up poorly compared to most eastern seasons.

No New England area being half open until after the first weekend in January has only occurred 5x since 2000. Unfortunately both last season and this one had that dubious honor. In fairness to Patrick I'll note that on Jan. 1, 2022 Tremblant was 68% open and Le Massif 60%.

January and February were average in 2022 by the standards of the chart though there was an ill timed rain event going into President's weekend. March was below average due to more rain.

Ongoing rain has made this a poor spring in New England. Here what was open second weekend of April vs. average: Stowe 31% vs. 56%, Sugarbush 20% vs. 42%, Whiteface 38% vs. 54%, Sunday River 44% vs. 63%, Sugarloaf 35% vs. 71%.

Eastern Canada must have escaped some of the adverse weather because Trmeblant was 90% open last weekend and Mt. St. Anne 100%. Nonetheless Patrick chose this week to cross the border for his first time since the pandemic. Why? He has an Indy Pass. The Indy Pass has some interesting places as I visited 5 of them last season. But it's a bad idea for someone who has a job during most of the ski season and can only utilize it during shoulder seasons.

FYI Le Massif may nose out Jay Peak for most snowfall in the East in 2021-22.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I disagree with Patrick's comment

I believe that most of the people on Harv's forum would disagree also; however, Patrick may be taking a more Quebec-centric view, which did better than south of the border, especially north of Quebec City.

 

[Harvey]

Tony's right, objectively it was a pretty bad year. Sure it was probably better in Canada.

I started tracking Gore snowfall (but not rain) in 2008 because they were so bad at it. They are somewhat better now but I continue tracking because I feel like I can look back at good and bad years. I use it to draw conclusions about snowfall statewide.

Gore Mountain Annual Snowfall

A definitive summary since 2008.

nyskiblog.com

Worst was clearly 15-16 at Gore and I'm sure that was probably true in all of NY and even VT

This year, I had a great season, but my goals might be different than yours. I care mostly about new snow, terrain is somewhat secondary, as long as I ca move forward and float.

I gave the season an "8" out of 10. Objectively I know that is ridiculous, but it was a good time in my world.

What makes a great season?

For me, it's all about the feeling I have at the end of the day.

nyskiblog.com

 

[Harvey]

this chart

That thing is awesome and insane at the same time Tony!

It's also conclusive proof that you are more insane than I am.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

It's also conclusive proof that you are more insane than I am.

He's a west-coast version of you in certain ways but seeks out different types of ski experiences.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Harv shows both last season and this one at under 100 inches of Gore snowfall, with only 2012 and 2016 being worse, which is in line with my chart for Vermont.

What are the dates during which snowfall is measured at Gore? I try to standardize on a November 1 to April 30 basis to make comparisons between areas valid. If snowfall is measured from opening to closing when those dates are variable, the results can be misleading. If Harv can provide month by month, I can use all the complete months to project a November 1 to April 30 average and add Gore to bestsnow.net.

I will agree with Harv than one's personal ski season may not correlate well to overall snowfall. My best powder season by far was 2011-12, a poor season for most regions of North America. But it was good in western Canada and I had 12 days of cat skiing up there plus I modified my schedule to score more powder than usual in Utah.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

If Harv can provide month by month, I can use all the complete months to project a November 1 to April 30 average and add Gore to bestsnow.net.

If you click on the hyperlinks for each season in Harv's chart, isn't that what you're looking for?

 

[Tony Crocker]

If you click on the hyperlinks for each season in Harv's chart, isn't that what you're looking for?

It's a list of daily new snows. Harv, can I assume that December and March are complete months?

 

[EMSC]

Based on the below on his page for gore data, they 'should be', but might be a bit fuzzy math with other local data sources used at times, though Harvey does tend to note if/when the source is not official Gore mtn data. Make of it what you will.

At times we’ve take some liberties with reporting. If we have a reporter in the area (we often do) and official mountain totals in our estimation under- or over-report those totals, we’ll record a modified amount. It’s important to note that from NYSB headquarters 4 miles to the northwest, Gore’s reporting looks to be accurate, in terms of amounts that fall at the base. Often we’ll measure 5 inches on our porch at 1900 feet and Gore will report four inches at 1500.

We also include reports from “Centerville” which is about two miles south of Gore at 1380 feet. We’ve also used reports from Garnet Hill Lodge, which is at 2000 feet, about 4 miles northwest of the mountain. All supplement reports are used to compensate for the fact that the mountain doesn’t seem take snow reporting, often reporting nothing, when there is clearly new snow.

Our season total may be a bit higher than Gore’s as we report any measurable amount that falls from July 1 to June 30 regardless of whether or not lifts are spinning. It’s our opinion that decisions to spin lifts are independent of the natural phenomena of snowfall.

 

[Harvey]

I start recording the numbers because Gore's numbers were such a shit show.

Originally I just used Gore numbers to compensate for the fact that you could never tell when the snow report was done or when the snow fell. There was never any cumulative data for the season either.

I started to adjust the numbers when I noticed some really bad reporting. One day this year we got 5 inches and Gore reported zero.

Every month is as complete as I can make it. I report any snow that falls between July 1 and June 30. I know James disagrees. To me it all counts whether lifts spin or not. If Hickory doesn't open for five years should they add 5 zeros into their long term average? During Winter Storm Riley only Plattekill spun lifts. So they get to add 50 inches but Hunter, Windham and Belle should report zero?

 

[Harvey]

I will agree with Harv than one's personal ski season may not correlate well to overall snowfall.

The conclusion I've come to is that if you are local (and retired) ie ski every day, your season will reflect the season as a whole. If you get 25-35 days like me, you've got a good chance to beat the average, if you pay attention, and have an understanding wife.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I report any snow that falls between July 1 and June 30. I know James disagrees. (...) During Winter Storm Riley only Plattekill spun lifts. So they get to add 50 inches but Hunter, Windham and Belle should report zero?

It's your site; you can report snow however you want but for lift-served skiing purposes I think it makes sense not to count pre-season snow (i.e. September or October) if it melts out before opening day.

Your Windham/Belle analogy is silly -- both reopened a few days after Riley and the accumulation was part of their skiable base for the season; therefore, it counts.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Every month is as complete as I can make it. I report any snow that falls between July 1 and June 30. I know James disagrees. To me it all counts whether lifts spin or not. If Hickory doesn't open for five years should they add 5 zeros into their long term average? During Winter Storm Riley only Plattekill spun lifts. So they get to add 50 inches but Hunter, Windham and Belle should report zero?

Two issues here:
1) The snow being relevant to skiing. That's why I agree with James that October and earlier should be ignored since it melts out in most cases. I count October natural snow when lifts run because of it, Mammoth this season being an example. The technical answer here would be to count snowfall from the first day of a nonzero snowpack, but that's nearly impossible to determine so Nov. 1 is a reasonable approximation and probably on the generous side for the Northeast.
2) Standardization of results to compare areas on a consistent basis. Closing dates are usually in April but still vary. So I try to count all of April for everyone or project it based on a closely correlated area in the region with complete data. This is how I'll get November and April averages for Gore. I count May snow for areas that stay open for most of the month consistently.

If some area isn't open or reporting, obviously you don't count them as zero for those years; it's just missing data. The indexing technique to an area with complete data solves the problem of whether an area with spotty data is only reporting its good months/seasons.

have an understanding wife.

Better to have a wife who shares your addiction. I'm at 49 days this season and Liz has been with me for 47 of them.

 

[Harvey]

You make me laugh Tony. I'm sticking with my own wife.

The question I am trying to answer is how much snow fell in 20XX. What are the chances for snow?

So if it snows 6 inches on a Tuesday at Plattekill, and then rains on Thursday and washed it all away, we don't count it? What if there was a private mountain rental on Wednesday, do we count it then? What if the rain washes some but not all away? Do you count some of it?

What if Plattekill gets 18" in October and we ski half a day, like 20 of us, and then the mountain doesn't open for another month, and all the snow is gone? Do we count that? What if we earned those turns, no lifts, do we count that?

This is why I'm just a little bit less insane than you.

Plattekill Mtn, NY: October Pow

The first ski area to spin lifts in NY's 2011-2012 season.

nyskiblog.com

 

[jamesdeluxe]

The question I am trying to answer is how much snow fell in 20XX. What are the chances for snow? So if it snows 6 inches on a Tuesday at Plattekill, and then rains on Thursday and washed it all away, we don't count it?

Harv does make a point about how we're comparing apples and bowling balls in that base-killing gully washers in the northeast are a variable that doesn't really exist out west (or to a far lesser extent). You've heard my anecdote about being at Snowbird in late January 2003 during a major rain event; however, the liquid precip didn't wash away the big base; it just turned everything to ice -- then they got a foot of snow the next evening which covered it up.

 

[Harvey]

This year Plattekill reported 82 inches (I think) and I have Gore at 99. The difference was actually much bigger than the 15% difference, as Plattekill had even more rain. Gore did have a lot of rain, but there were 2 or 3 storms that were snow at Gore and rain in Roxbury.

To me it just seems simplest to count any snow that falls.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Harv is Exhibit A in Tony's longtime point about how being opportunistic in the northeast -- having the freedom to drive to whereever the snow is falling -- is the only strategy that works.

 

[Harvey]

Check this out. Holiday Valley and Holimont are like 4 miles apart, at the same elevation.

 

[Harvey]

having the freedom to drive to whereever the snow is falling

That's an generous interpretation of my situation.

More like "having the sense to save driving for days when there is a reasonable chance for soft snow."

The reason my days are down the last two years (25 vs 35 long term average) is that I've essentially cut Nov/Dec days from 15 to 5.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Based on that Vermont chart there are not a lot of seasons where I’d be interested in skiing more than 5 days in the Northeast before January.