powderfreak
New member
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/news/s ... 90114.shtm
Final forecast tomorrow evening to be posted in this thread.
Final forecast tomorrow evening to be posted in this thread.
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Significant EC snowstorm this weekend...Who and Where?
- Thread starter powderfreak
- Start date
powderfreak
New member
At this time, it does not appear the two streams are going to phase in
time for truely heavy snowfall to make it even as far northwest as the
Catskills, southern Vermont, or Berkshires (except maybe the southern
1/3rd). The time frame we are looking at is tomorrow for the central
Appalachians and mid-Atlantic...and tomorrow night and Sunday as you head
up the northeast coast.
Mountainous regions that will recieve heavy snow include the southern to
central Appalachians with the WV highlands, Blue Ridge area, and higher
terrain of Kentucky likely seeing the heaviest snowfall. In this region,
a general 6-12" will fall with some of the highest ridges along the
Appalachian spine seeing up to 15".
This axis of heavy snow will then run ENE to I-95 and then follow I-95
from Washington D.C. to Boston and possibly Portland, ME, including all
the major metro areas inbetween there. The Washington D.C. to Philly zone
will see 5-10" while north of Philly (most of NJ) through NYC (including
Long Island), Hartford (and all of CT), Providence (and all of RI) and
Boston sees 8-14" with locally up to 18". The low pressure will track off
the coast near Virginia Beach and continue trucking to just southeast of
Cape Cod where it will slow as it deepens. This deepening will bring high
winds to the area between NYC and Boston, especially on more exposed areas
like Long Island and Cape Cod. High winds will likely extend inland at
times but constant blizzard conditions and heavy drifting of snow can be
expected in coastal communities. Rapid deepening, high winds, and
snowfall rates of up to 3" per hour in banding will make Sunday morning
through early afternoon a fairly rough time in southern New England as far
as travel goes.
As far as snowfall totals in the interior go, the Worcester Hills back
through the southern third of the Berkshires (I-90, I495, I290) sees 6-12"
with blowing and drifting likely...once you get back towards NY state,
this band of 6-12" will include the southeast slopes of the Catskills like
Slide Mountain (Ulster County). North of that line, the rest of the
Catskills will see 3-6" of fluffy snow. Northern Berkshires and
Bennington and Windham Counties in VT will see the sharp drop in snowfall
from 7" along the MA/VT border to 3" across the northern portions of those
counties. In southern NH...same thing. 7" along the NH/MA border will
quickly taper to 3-4" near Concord...with the 3-4" line running up through
Augusta, ME from Concord.
Anywhere north of these areas, a general dusting to 3" can be anticipated
especially along the Green Mountain spine and in upslope areas favored by
an onshore flow of the White Mountains in NH and southeast facing slopes
in ME.
Ski areas that might be fun on Sunday afternoon...anything in WV, western
Maryland, Mountain Creek in NJ, maybe Jiminy Peak in MA, and Wachusett in
MA.
Now, there is still time for a NW shift and some models extend heavy
snowfall further into the Catskills, southern VT, NH, and ME. I'm not
buying into those as I do not like the model spread that is still a decent
distance out to sea. In order for further NW areas to see significant
snowfall, the upper level low needs to close off quickly over the northern
Mid-Atlantic region. Right now, I believe the upper low will close off
when it is already ENE of Cape Cod which would be too late for interior
regions. There will be a very sharp NW end to the snowfall where dry air
eats into precipitation amounts. This is another reason why I am going a
little lower across the interior than some models have. However, that is
also a good thing going for this storm...the cold temperatures across all
regions, especially the interior. Ratios could be up to 20 to 1 in the
interior with temperatures in the 15-20F range. Thus, any precipitation
that does fall will be maximized in terms of snowfall totals.
I will continue to monitor the situation but this is the final forecast
and we'll let it ride from here. Any large changes will be addressed.
-Scott
time for truely heavy snowfall to make it even as far northwest as the
Catskills, southern Vermont, or Berkshires (except maybe the southern
1/3rd). The time frame we are looking at is tomorrow for the central
Appalachians and mid-Atlantic...and tomorrow night and Sunday as you head
up the northeast coast.
Mountainous regions that will recieve heavy snow include the southern to
central Appalachians with the WV highlands, Blue Ridge area, and higher
terrain of Kentucky likely seeing the heaviest snowfall. In this region,
a general 6-12" will fall with some of the highest ridges along the
Appalachian spine seeing up to 15".
This axis of heavy snow will then run ENE to I-95 and then follow I-95
from Washington D.C. to Boston and possibly Portland, ME, including all
the major metro areas inbetween there. The Washington D.C. to Philly zone
will see 5-10" while north of Philly (most of NJ) through NYC (including
Long Island), Hartford (and all of CT), Providence (and all of RI) and
Boston sees 8-14" with locally up to 18". The low pressure will track off
the coast near Virginia Beach and continue trucking to just southeast of
Cape Cod where it will slow as it deepens. This deepening will bring high
winds to the area between NYC and Boston, especially on more exposed areas
like Long Island and Cape Cod. High winds will likely extend inland at
times but constant blizzard conditions and heavy drifting of snow can be
expected in coastal communities. Rapid deepening, high winds, and
snowfall rates of up to 3" per hour in banding will make Sunday morning
through early afternoon a fairly rough time in southern New England as far
as travel goes.
As far as snowfall totals in the interior go, the Worcester Hills back
through the southern third of the Berkshires (I-90, I495, I290) sees 6-12"
with blowing and drifting likely...once you get back towards NY state,
this band of 6-12" will include the southeast slopes of the Catskills like
Slide Mountain (Ulster County). North of that line, the rest of the
Catskills will see 3-6" of fluffy snow. Northern Berkshires and
Bennington and Windham Counties in VT will see the sharp drop in snowfall
from 7" along the MA/VT border to 3" across the northern portions of those
counties. In southern NH...same thing. 7" along the NH/MA border will
quickly taper to 3-4" near Concord...with the 3-4" line running up through
Augusta, ME from Concord.
Anywhere north of these areas, a general dusting to 3" can be anticipated
especially along the Green Mountain spine and in upslope areas favored by
an onshore flow of the White Mountains in NH and southeast facing slopes
in ME.
Ski areas that might be fun on Sunday afternoon...anything in WV, western
Maryland, Mountain Creek in NJ, maybe Jiminy Peak in MA, and Wachusett in
MA.
Now, there is still time for a NW shift and some models extend heavy
snowfall further into the Catskills, southern VT, NH, and ME. I'm not
buying into those as I do not like the model spread that is still a decent
distance out to sea. In order for further NW areas to see significant
snowfall, the upper level low needs to close off quickly over the northern
Mid-Atlantic region. Right now, I believe the upper low will close off
when it is already ENE of Cape Cod which would be too late for interior
regions. There will be a very sharp NW end to the snowfall where dry air
eats into precipitation amounts. This is another reason why I am going a
little lower across the interior than some models have. However, that is
also a good thing going for this storm...the cold temperatures across all
regions, especially the interior. Ratios could be up to 20 to 1 in the
interior with temperatures in the 15-20F range. Thus, any precipitation
that does fall will be maximized in terms of snowfall totals.
I will continue to monitor the situation but this is the final forecast
and we'll let it ride from here. Any large changes will be addressed.
-Scott