Significant Late Season Snowstorm

powderfreak

New member
Models continue the threat of a heavy snowfall across the higher elevations of parts of ME, NH, VT, NY, and adjacent southen Quebec.

Latitude and Elevation will play a key role in what type and amount of precipitation you see with this event. The NWS in Burlington issued Winter Storm Watches last night as expected for their mountain zones. A long duration, heavy precipitation event that begins as heavy rain and changes to a prolonged period of heavy wet snow will begin tonight and not completely end until Wednesday night.

Total precipitation amounts (rain and snow) look to be in the 1.5-3.0" range which is a lot of freakin' water equivilant.

Full forecast will be out tonight but look for rain to develop tonight before changing to snow from the top down (higher elevations first) during the day tomorrow. Precipitation could become all snow everywhere straight down to the lowest valleys (St. Lawerence/Champlain Valley/CT River Valley) tomorrow night and continue into Wednesday. Tomorrow night will generally be favorable for snowfall accumulations without a strong April sun.

Strong H85 lower level jet inflow of Atlantic moisture will pummel someone... and intense frontogenic forcing over the White Mountains means I'm leaning towards that region. Presidential Range could get clobbered and looking at possible moisture feet straight out of the Gulf into the higher summits region, a significant amount of snowpack could be gained up there. Mount Washington could make up for some snowfall deficit. Southern Quebec also stands to get blasted.

Right now, I'm going basic with these sort of accums:
This will be a significant snowfall (6-12") for elevations above 2,000ft
and a moderate snowfall (4-8") for elevations between 1K-2K feet and a
light snowfall (1-4") below 1,000ft...across the Adirondacks, Greens and
White Mtns. The mountain summits and highest elevations of the Whites,
Greens, and eastern Adirondacks could easily see one to one and a half feet of
dense snow. Three to six inches may also fall across the Berkshires above
1,500ft, mostly in the Mt. Graylock/RT 2/North Adams area as well as in the northern and eastern Catskills.

More details later and snowfall accums will likely need tweaking. Maybe raise some snowfall somewhere and lower it elsewhere.
 
Winter Storm Warnings for Northern NY and Northern VT:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...A HEAVY WET SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND STALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION...RAIN WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW
SHOWERS.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED HEAVY AND WET NATURE OF THE
SNOW...AN ELEVATED RISK OF TREE AND ASSOCIATED POWERLINE DAMAGE
ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

VTZ003-006-008-016-017-040600-
/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0004.060404T2000Z-060406T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0002.060404T1500Z-060406T0000Z/
ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...
MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
440 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.

RAIN TONIGHT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

$$
 
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