powderfreak
New member
Models continue the threat of a heavy snowfall across the higher elevations of parts of ME, NH, VT, NY, and adjacent southen Quebec.
Latitude and Elevation will play a key role in what type and amount of precipitation you see with this event. The NWS in Burlington issued Winter Storm Watches last night as expected for their mountain zones. A long duration, heavy precipitation event that begins as heavy rain and changes to a prolonged period of heavy wet snow will begin tonight and not completely end until Wednesday night.
Total precipitation amounts (rain and snow) look to be in the 1.5-3.0" range which is a lot of freakin' water equivilant.
Full forecast will be out tonight but look for rain to develop tonight before changing to snow from the top down (higher elevations first) during the day tomorrow. Precipitation could become all snow everywhere straight down to the lowest valleys (St. Lawerence/Champlain Valley/CT River Valley) tomorrow night and continue into Wednesday. Tomorrow night will generally be favorable for snowfall accumulations without a strong April sun.
Strong H85 lower level jet inflow of Atlantic moisture will pummel someone... and intense frontogenic forcing over the White Mountains means I'm leaning towards that region. Presidential Range could get clobbered and looking at possible moisture feet straight out of the Gulf into the higher summits region, a significant amount of snowpack could be gained up there. Mount Washington could make up for some snowfall deficit. Southern Quebec also stands to get blasted.
Right now, I'm going basic with these sort of accums:
This will be a significant snowfall (6-12") for elevations above 2,000ft
and a moderate snowfall (4-8") for elevations between 1K-2K feet and a
light snowfall (1-4") below 1,000ft...across the Adirondacks, Greens and
White Mtns. The mountain summits and highest elevations of the Whites,
Greens, and eastern Adirondacks could easily see one to one and a half feet of
dense snow. Three to six inches may also fall across the Berkshires above
1,500ft, mostly in the Mt. Graylock/RT 2/North Adams area as well as in the northern and eastern Catskills.
More details later and snowfall accums will likely need tweaking. Maybe raise some snowfall somewhere and lower it elsewhere.
Latitude and Elevation will play a key role in what type and amount of precipitation you see with this event. The NWS in Burlington issued Winter Storm Watches last night as expected for their mountain zones. A long duration, heavy precipitation event that begins as heavy rain and changes to a prolonged period of heavy wet snow will begin tonight and not completely end until Wednesday night.
Total precipitation amounts (rain and snow) look to be in the 1.5-3.0" range which is a lot of freakin' water equivilant.
Full forecast will be out tonight but look for rain to develop tonight before changing to snow from the top down (higher elevations first) during the day tomorrow. Precipitation could become all snow everywhere straight down to the lowest valleys (St. Lawerence/Champlain Valley/CT River Valley) tomorrow night and continue into Wednesday. Tomorrow night will generally be favorable for snowfall accumulations without a strong April sun.
Strong H85 lower level jet inflow of Atlantic moisture will pummel someone... and intense frontogenic forcing over the White Mountains means I'm leaning towards that region. Presidential Range could get clobbered and looking at possible moisture feet straight out of the Gulf into the higher summits region, a significant amount of snowpack could be gained up there. Mount Washington could make up for some snowfall deficit. Southern Quebec also stands to get blasted.
Right now, I'm going basic with these sort of accums:
This will be a significant snowfall (6-12") for elevations above 2,000ft
and a moderate snowfall (4-8") for elevations between 1K-2K feet and a
light snowfall (1-4") below 1,000ft...across the Adirondacks, Greens and
White Mtns. The mountain summits and highest elevations of the Whites,
Greens, and eastern Adirondacks could easily see one to one and a half feet of
dense snow. Three to six inches may also fall across the Berkshires above
1,500ft, mostly in the Mt. Graylock/RT 2/North Adams area as well as in the northern and eastern Catskills.
More details later and snowfall accums will likely need tweaking. Maybe raise some snowfall somewhere and lower it elsewhere.