powderfreak
New member
Man oh man is it looking like we could have one heck of an October storm on our hands this week. At the very least, it appears as though someone in the northeast will experience strong winds and heavy precipitation. I think windy conditions are almost a given although no storm track is etched in stone. Where Wilma's energy tracks will decide exactly who gets the big snows.
I'm agreeing with almost all model data of taking Wilma and transforming her into a non-tropical storm with more of a frontal structure of a true nor'easter as she moves up the east coast. I believe this storm will still be quite strong and energy moving in from the Ohio River Valley around the base of the trough will phase together off-shore far enough to keep interior New England in the cold sector. The progged 700mb and 850mb lows track in a favorable path for significant snowfall from the Catskills north through the Adirondacks and through the Greens and northern White mtns. However, being that it is still October, the atmosphere will be marginal just about everywhere with the column right around freezing for a long ways up. Precipitation and melting of snow through warmer layers should cool that column to support snow down to at least 2000ft starting Tuesday afternoon in the Adirondacks and Greens...after probably some decent rainfall.
Tuesday night, colder air gets dragged down and all models show significant amounts of moisture being thrown back in interior New England through Wednesday morning. Some areas could see 2-4" of QPF before all is said and done.
Ok what I'm thinking now is that the heaviest snowfall will be in the SE Adirondacks, Green Mountains from Killington northward, and the northern White Mountains...I'm concerned that the White Mountain region might not cool fast enough or have enough wrap around precipitation to warrent heavy snow, but with the high elevation, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt...and hope that cold air from the north can actively displace the maritime air that the slowing storm might send in from the Atlantic.
Anyway, eastern Adirondacks (by that I mean region east of a Gore Mtn-Whiteface line, higher spots of the I87 corridor, etc) and Green Mtns from Killington northward could see in excess of a foot of snow as low as 1500ft. Even a few inches all the way down to the Champlain Valley floor is not out of the question. Today's 12z GFS sounding for Vermont's capital, MPV in the Green Mtns, showed over 1" of precip as rain, then some mix and 1.2" liquid equiv. in the form of snow. Total precip up and down the Green Mtn spine could exceed 3" with half of that in the form of snow even down in inhabited regions. BTV had over 1" liquid but then over an inch L.E. in the form of frozen precip as well based on the 12z GFS sounding.
Needless to say, I'm just rambling on but I do feel 12" or more is certainly possible at least above 2,000ft (Killington Base Lodge, Bolton base area, just for an idea).
NWS offices at Albany and Burlington are quite interested in this situation and so if you want to stay up to date, read their discussions...kind of confusing, but you can get the idea.
Burlington's:
http://www.weather.gov/view/productview ... &version=0
Albany's:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =ALBAFDALY
I'm agreeing with almost all model data of taking Wilma and transforming her into a non-tropical storm with more of a frontal structure of a true nor'easter as she moves up the east coast. I believe this storm will still be quite strong and energy moving in from the Ohio River Valley around the base of the trough will phase together off-shore far enough to keep interior New England in the cold sector. The progged 700mb and 850mb lows track in a favorable path for significant snowfall from the Catskills north through the Adirondacks and through the Greens and northern White mtns. However, being that it is still October, the atmosphere will be marginal just about everywhere with the column right around freezing for a long ways up. Precipitation and melting of snow through warmer layers should cool that column to support snow down to at least 2000ft starting Tuesday afternoon in the Adirondacks and Greens...after probably some decent rainfall.
Tuesday night, colder air gets dragged down and all models show significant amounts of moisture being thrown back in interior New England through Wednesday morning. Some areas could see 2-4" of QPF before all is said and done.
Ok what I'm thinking now is that the heaviest snowfall will be in the SE Adirondacks, Green Mountains from Killington northward, and the northern White Mountains...I'm concerned that the White Mountain region might not cool fast enough or have enough wrap around precipitation to warrent heavy snow, but with the high elevation, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt...and hope that cold air from the north can actively displace the maritime air that the slowing storm might send in from the Atlantic.
Anyway, eastern Adirondacks (by that I mean region east of a Gore Mtn-Whiteface line, higher spots of the I87 corridor, etc) and Green Mtns from Killington northward could see in excess of a foot of snow as low as 1500ft. Even a few inches all the way down to the Champlain Valley floor is not out of the question. Today's 12z GFS sounding for Vermont's capital, MPV in the Green Mtns, showed over 1" of precip as rain, then some mix and 1.2" liquid equiv. in the form of snow. Total precip up and down the Green Mtn spine could exceed 3" with half of that in the form of snow even down in inhabited regions. BTV had over 1" liquid but then over an inch L.E. in the form of frozen precip as well based on the 12z GFS sounding.
Needless to say, I'm just rambling on but I do feel 12" or more is certainly possible at least above 2,000ft (Killington Base Lodge, Bolton base area, just for an idea).
NWS offices at Albany and Burlington are quite interested in this situation and so if you want to stay up to date, read their discussions...kind of confusing, but you can get the idea.
Burlington's:
http://www.weather.gov/view/productview ... &version=0
Albany's:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =ALBAFDALY
