powderfreak
New member
Everything looks good to go. I'm trying to find out what can go wrong instead of
what can go right. My thoughts have shifted though on the development of
the storm and snowfall. The real deal is not the actual storm coming up
the coast although that could drop some widespread 6-12" snowfalls across
NY, VT, NH as the low bombs out and passes by to the east. Personally, I
think the upslope snowfall, after the low moves north of the area, will be
the big ticket item. There is some very strong upstream blocking and as
this storm (a powerful low) moves up into the Canadian Maritimes it is
going to run into a brick wall. The initial storm brings a slug of snow
in on Monday night, then it tapers off as New England gets dryslotted,
then upslope snows move back in Tuesday afternoon and goes bonkers through
Wednesday.
Storm track should be just off shore and might clip extreme southern New
England/Cape Cod while moving into the Gulf of Maine. Negative tilt takes
this thing almost due north from Cape Cod. I know the past few days BTV
has been talking about this and this track is climatologically one of the
best for significant North Country snows. Even if we only get 3-6" while
the storm passes by, that block is still up there and the storm has to
slow to a crawl. Upslope snowfall will be big by Wednesday.
I've seen the numbers from Romer, Hydro Prediction Center, NWS and
others. If I was pressed to give a preliminary number...
15-30" across the Green Mountain Spine from Killington north to Jay as
well as in the northern Adirondacks and Whites.
I'll be out of town tonight and will have a full forecast out tomorrow
night with the chance for one last hedging on Monday.
-Scott
what can go right. My thoughts have shifted though on the development of
the storm and snowfall. The real deal is not the actual storm coming up
the coast although that could drop some widespread 6-12" snowfalls across
NY, VT, NH as the low bombs out and passes by to the east. Personally, I
think the upslope snowfall, after the low moves north of the area, will be
the big ticket item. There is some very strong upstream blocking and as
this storm (a powerful low) moves up into the Canadian Maritimes it is
going to run into a brick wall. The initial storm brings a slug of snow
in on Monday night, then it tapers off as New England gets dryslotted,
then upslope snows move back in Tuesday afternoon and goes bonkers through
Wednesday.
Storm track should be just off shore and might clip extreme southern New
England/Cape Cod while moving into the Gulf of Maine. Negative tilt takes
this thing almost due north from Cape Cod. I know the past few days BTV
has been talking about this and this track is climatologically one of the
best for significant North Country snows. Even if we only get 3-6" while
the storm passes by, that block is still up there and the storm has to
slow to a crawl. Upslope snowfall will be big by Wednesday.
I've seen the numbers from Romer, Hydro Prediction Center, NWS and
others. If I was pressed to give a preliminary number...
15-30" across the Green Mountain Spine from Killington north to Jay as
well as in the northern Adirondacks and Whites.
I'll be out of town tonight and will have a full forecast out tomorrow
night with the chance for one last hedging on Monday.
-Scott