Snow Snorkels for New Jersey this winter?

I'm skeptical. I know Tony and most are skeptical of long range stuff in general, but that's not what I'm saying right now. ( I actually think that Joe B's long range was reasonable last season - more on that another time.)

AccuWeather or at least Joe B has been consistent with that call since he first made it in July. It may just be terminology...I mean if NJ got 20" of snow that would be huge. But IF his scenario plays out, or if it's 90% accurate, my guess is that the eastern mountains will have a very good year.

To me that map implies that there would be enough cold air to push the storm track SOUTH of the mountains...I ain't buyin it. As always - if stays cold for a significant part of the winter, we'll be just fine on this side.
 
I have no clue about this Inaccuweather guy's past record... the only thing that can't be argued is: he's good at getting people's attention. I like the "Wishcasting" term used in the other thread.
 
Tony Crocker":1fffe1ck said:
It's like herding cats with these :bs: weather predictions.
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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

This made me chuckle Tony. Hey if we get really cranky with the constant moderator poo-pooing of eastern skiing, we can have an organized grass-roots revolt, starting a new long range thread each day for a month. Or...you could do a pre-emptive strike and post "The Eastern Long Range Thread" in July when Bastardi comes out with his...and move every new thread into that thread. That would be comedy...a long range thread with 1000 posts - authored by Tony Crocker.

Just to be a troublemaker...my two cents on last years long range call ...Joe B and Henry Nutter both called for a "bookend" winter in the East. Coldest weather of the season was in December, a significant warm up in January and a return to seasonable cold in Feb. Considering how far out they made that call, it wasn't too bad. December was really cold. We never got the big one at Gore, but we did get some good December action. The warm up in Jan was shorter than predicted (maybe 10-15 days?) and then it returned to more seasonable levels. Could be coincidence. Definitely affected me. I skied 5 out of the first 6 weekends and Christmas week. For me that turned out to be the right move for a variety of reasons. Cause and effect - maybe not, but hey I'll take it.
 
You might as well say: It is going to snow everyday this season in the North East, and that on Dec. 17th this season it will snow 23" at Jay.

PSHAW, these early season predictions are pretty ridiculous... I've found that even NOAA does a poor job in it's seasonal prediction, even just a month ahead!

I can promise everyone this: It will snow this winter, and it will rain, and it will be sunny, and there will be some epic days, and some not so epic days. I think that is far more accurate than anything else you will read about this upcoming winter in the NE.
 
Harvey44":1swhqval said:
Hey if we get really cranky with the constant moderator poo-pooing of eastern skiing
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In reality, the biggest turn-off for me for skiing in the mid-Atlantic in the past 10 years has been the change in demographics and not the conditions. I can get to the Poconos from my house in 60 minutes, so even I can storm chase a little from NJ. The thing that bothers me about skiing in the Poconos (especially) is the abundance of snowboarders sitting in the middle of a trail catching a smoke, or lighting up in the lift line. Call me old-fashion....
 
Bluebird Day":2qqv00po said:
The thing that bothers me about skiing in the Poconos (especially) is the abundance of snowboarders sitting in the middle of a trail catching a smoke, or lighting up in the lift line.
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I agree, but without the boarders, the ski areas would have a tough time surviving.

I've skied two evenings at Camelback with a foot of mostly untracked powder and, go figure, it wasn't bad at all.
 
Doesn't exactly match his map but Joe B could be off to a good start:

Picture 3.jpg
 
Forecast for Highmount:

Picture 12.png


I predict 10-12 at the Belleayre summit by noon on Saturday.

With the right boards and some hiking to gain elevation that is TOTALLY doable.

Time for a deluxe audible?...I'll check in Sat eve for the TR.

:-o

SoVT could be the place....Mt Snow?
 
rfarren":w8hz0y11 said:
on Dec. 17th this season it will snow 23" at Jay.
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I am totally in with you on that prediction. Last winter in New England, we got big storms on the Dec 19 and the 21. No reason we can't push that sched up 2 days.

Book your plans now. The wknd preceding Xmas is usually a great one to ski/ride, while most folks torture themselves at malls.
 
sszycher":2v6eqh1n said:
rfarren":2v6eqh1n said:
on Dec. 17th this season it will snow 23" at Jay.
Click to expand...

I am totally in with you on that prediction. Last winter in New England, we got big storms on the Dec 19 and the 21. No reason we can't push that sched up 2 days.
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That storm is going to be farther south than last year - Jay is only getting 10-12. Sugarbush is in the wheelhouse this year.

sszycher":2v6eqh1n said:
Book your plans now. The wknd preceding Xmas is usually a great one to ski/ride, while most folks torture themselves at malls.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much the reason I got the goods last year on 12/19 and 12/21. Definitely always a great weekend to ski.
 
It is cold! It's snowing at Mountain Creek. To think that the baseball season hasn't even ended yet!
 
The October link to Accuweather's winter forecast was spectacularly wrong for the West.
Extremes10509.jpg


They called for severe drought in the Southwest with "very little snow in the mountains." Results? :oops: :bs: :^o #-o
Mammoth 148%
SoCal 123%
Arizona 139%
Brian Head 137%
Taos 122%
Best region in North America this season.

The most favorable part of the October map was Montana/Wyoming/far northern Colorado. Results? :oops: :bs: :^o #-o
Whitefish 60% when it closed April 4
Bridger 92% when it closed April 4
Targhee 90%
Jackson 76% when it closed April 4
Steamboat 77%
Worst region in North America this season.

Before you say, "Well, maybe he just knows what he's doing in the East," both the Eastern and Western forecasts are necessarily based upon global weather activity, in this case:
Accuweather":2b42f8j4 said:
July, Joe was the first to talk about how the fading El Niño will play a role in the winter forecast.
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El Nino in fact strengthened, peaking midwinter (1.502) at nearly double the strength of its October condition (0.754). 2009-10 is sure to be at least the 7th highest El Nino since 1950 and may come in as high as 5th.

As for the East, I wonder what Patrick's opinion is of the Eastern Canadian forecast on that map: "Average snowfall but with below average temperatures?" :rotfl:
 
Long range forecasting is little better than a guess. you might as well buy the farmers almanac and do rain dances.
 
I couldn't find the October link you were referring to. The links upthread looked dead?

So what happened out west so far? Looks like Joe was saying wet southwest and dry northwest. The map was pubbed in July.

I'm not defending long range. I don't even understand it.

James and I have asked Jason WHERE exactly that stuff comes from - with no response yet (Jason?)

It does seem odd to me that all three predictions - 3 month T2M, El Nino Map and JB's pie in the sky map all agreed with EACH OTHER. Makes me think they are accessing the same data.

It may or may not be total BS. Certainly anything with a 50/50 record at best has zero predictive value. And it's funny - even if I did buy it and Joe said winter was cancelled, I wouldn't change a single thing I do.

I guess I'll just read ICE's TRs until they stop in July and then pack it in until Thanksgiving.

BTW Tony - love this: :oops: :bs: :^o #-o
 
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