ChrisC
Well-known member
Watch for storms and 100 cm bases.....
Not an optimistic forecast for SA:
Not an optimistic forecast for SA:
South America 2025
- Thread starter ChrisC
- Start date
Those seasonal forecasts can be done as accurately by monkeys throwing darts, especially when there is no El Nino or La Nina.
Regardless of the forecasts, do not commit $$$ until adequate snow is on the ground. AFAIK Portillo has not had a season since 2009 that exceeded its 1971-2007 average.
Regardless of the forecasts, do not commit $$$ until adequate snow is on the ground. AFAIK Portillo has not had a season since 2009 that exceeded its 1971-2007 average.
That's sobering. Is that an anomaly or true for South America in general?
It is likely true for the latitude 33-35 areas Portillo, Valle Nevado and Las Lenas. Farther south the climate is different. It's a wetter and less boom or bust climate, but altitude is much lower so you have to worry about the rain/snow line.
ChrisC
Well-known member
LOL
Portillo is bringing its average snowfall down to 200" or so at the resort level. You have to commend them for honest reporting.
But where did 100" disappear to? Global Warming is changing weather patterns?
Ski slopes in Chile for beginners to expert skiers & snowboarders
Ski slopes with some of the best skiing in South America are to be found at the Portillo ski resort in Chile, for skiing and snowboarding
skiportillo.com
ChrisC
Well-known member
My previous two trips to South America were more at the last minute, and I paid a bit more in airfare, but that's okay with me. Lodging and skiing are the same price.
I paid $1k instead of $700 for a round trip, which made the difference between exceptional snow and average snow.
I believe the climate models forecast drying out in some places at those latitudes. Portillo, despite its altitude, is an outlier in latitude at 32.8. Compare to lowest latitude ski areas in North America, Ski Apache NM at 33.4 and the rarely open Mt. Lemmon AZ at 32.4. Valle Nevado is 33.4. Las Lenas latitude is 35.1, similar to Arizona Snowbowl at 35.3.
I have high skepticism of climate models' regional predictions even though the big picture projections of overall world temperatures have been in the ballpark long term. We have covered this ground before. Since 2021:
Portillo had another lean year in 2022, 163 inches
256 inches in 2023 was about average but with only 72 inches by Aug. 13 it was not a good season overall.
261 inches in 2024 was also close to average but qualitatively better since 223 inches had fallen by June 25.
Some other updates to that post from 2021:
1) Alyeska had another excessively rainy season in 2024-25. The ratio of mid to upper snowfall was 52%, fifth lowest since 1979 and all of the other four were since 2015.
2) L.A. rain and SoCal snow were high in 2022-23 and 2023-24, but neither season met the standards of 2010 and prior excellent seasons since there was not much natural snow before February. 2024-25 in SoCal was only marginally better than the abysmal 2013-14 and 2017-18 seasons.
3) Taos had average seasons in 2022-23 and 2023-24 but its second driest ever season in 2024-25.
4) Utah has rebounded impressively. After one more below average season in 2021-22, it had record high snowfall in 2022-23 and the past two seasons were above average.
Last edited:
ChrisC
Well-known member
A decent start
www.facebook.com
PowderQuest
PowderQuest. 5,527 likes · 85 talking about this. Elevated Adventures For Passionate Skiers And Snowboarders. Japan, South America, Norway and Beyond since 1999.
www.facebook.com
ChrisC
Well-known member
You can see why you want to wait until there is snow on the ground in South America. Sometimes these mega-storms do not come to fruition, and it can be an abysmal season (many in the 2010s and 2020s).
When your average snowfall is 200-300 inches and you miss a 50-80" storm, that's a significant % of your overall snowfall for the season.
Same in California's Sierra, but most mountains receive more snow than the Andes, and Tony calculates less volatility.
When your average snowfall is 200-300 inches and you miss a 50-80" storm, that's a significant % of your overall snowfall for the season.
Same in California's Sierra, but most mountains receive more snow than the Andes, and Tony calculates less volatility.
Latitude explains a lot of this. Santiago is the same latitude 34 as L.A. and SoCal snow volatility is almost as high as Portillo's. Portillo gets more snow with altitude range 8,300 - 10,800 so minimal rain vs. SoCal ski elevation range 6,500 - 8,800.
Move to a more consistent storm track 37 latitude and the relationship above and rain incidence is the opposite. Chillan is 5,200 - 8,200 while Mammoth is 8,000 - 11,053.
ChrisC
Well-known member
If this storms cycle continues, it might be a good season for South America - at least Chile and Las Lenas.
www.facebook.com
11 reactions | Jesus effing Christ it just nuked 4 feet (1.2 m) in 24 hours @nevadosdechillan in Chile! Around @skilaparva and @valle_nevado it left 20 - 24 in (50 - 60 cm) and 17 in (45 cm) @skiportillo. This storm delivered big time and an even big
Jesus effing Christ it just nuked 4 feet (1.2 m) in 24 hours @nevadosdechillan in Chile! Around @skilaparva and @valle_nevado it left 20 - 24 in (50 - 60 cm) and 17 in (45 cm) @skiportillo. This...
www.facebook.com
Last edited: