Storm Prediction High/Low

[Bluebird Day]

Just for fun... no money. Predict the date of the first significant snow storm for the East Coast.

"Significant Snow Storm" is defined as 12 inches or more of snow on top of the picnic table at the base of any resort on the East Coast.

I'll start with December 9th..... :snowball fight:

 

[icelanticskier]

january 8th.

rog

 

[riverc0il]

january 8th.

rog

Rog is showing his anti-VT leanings here...

 

[icelanticskier]

january 8th.

rog

Rog is showing his anti-VT leanings here...

vermont, bleh. jan 8th is my b-day. it sometimes snows on my b-day. not expecting much but cold/dry, warm/wet b4 that. the only ski area open in the east will be good tomorrow. thursday even bettah.

rog

 

[jamesdeluxe]

December 8

 

[riverc0il]

vermont, bleh. jan 8th is my b-day. it sometimes snows on my b-day. not expecting much but cold/dry, warm/wet b4 that. the only ski area open in the east will be good tomorrow. thursday even bettah.

rog

If I don't get at least one foot of fresh before the Solstice, I become grumpy. Or at least, I think I would become grumpy because I think it has snowed at least a foot somewhere in New England before the Solstice every year since I have been taking this activity seriously.

 

[Tony Crocker]

7 sample years of first day 12+ inches at the base of Jay Peak:
11/30, 12/3, 12/3, 12/7, 12/27, 12/31, 1/14. 2006-07 was the year of the 1/14, so River was grumpy for quite a while before that season became epic.

 

[riverc0il]

7 sample years of first day 12+ inches at the base of Jay Peak:
11/30, 12/3, 12/3, 12/7, 12/27, 12/31, 1/14. 2006-07 was the year of the 1/14, so River was grumpy for quite a while before that season became epic.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I was a VERY happy man early season of 2006-2007. That was the year I skied Valhalla and Power Line at Jay in friggin October.

http://www.thesnowway.com/category/trip ... son/page/4

It all melted before base building so it is probably not in the official Jay numbers.

Of course, that also was the year I skied Jay on December 3rd and they only had The Jet open.

 

[riverc0il]

Man, I love my TR archive. When Ma Nature is less than bountiful in her offerings, I can at least pass the time debunking Tony's stats and enjoying a trip down memory lane. :lol: :mrgreen:

My Cannon report from December 9th of 2006 says boot to knee deep in places. Perhaps some blow around but damn it definitely does not look like I am very grumpy!!!

 

[jasoncapecod]

my tea leaves say


dec3-5

 

[Harvey]

Man, I love my TR archive.

One of the best things about blogging is going through the TRs in the off season or the JONES season (now).

This is a great photo. Artistic, hilarious and tragic all at once:

Every year at this time I remember that Ice and I have the same birthday. Last year was my 50th - you can count the candles. Because that was practically the end of my season last year, I'm not going to go with Jan 8.

I'm going to take December 15th. I have it on good authority* (Powderfreak link below) that December will be a roller coaster. I figure that leaves enough time for 2 full cycles of cold and warm...with the big one coming on the third cold blast...

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showpost.p ... stcount=57

 

[Tony Crocker]

Man, I love my TR archive.

Me too. Since the most detailed version of mine is here on FTO that's why I if the archives are threatened or degraded by software upgrades(?).

 

[J.Spin]

7 sample years of first day 12+ inches at the base of Jay Peak:
11/30, 12/3, 12/3, 12/7, 12/27, 12/31, 1/14. 2006-07 was the year of the 1/14...

I’ve only got three years worth of data to provide at this point, but here are the dates for the first 1+ foot storms of each season at our house (Waterbury/Bolton line – elevation 495’):

’06-’07|Jan 19|12.8”
’07-’08|Dec 3|19.2”
’08-’09|Nov 20|14.2”

Note that these are storm totals (6+ hour collection intervals), not necessarily overnight totals, but the original question didn’t seem to be too specific in that regard. Of the three, the Jan 19th, 2007 is by far the latest, and is coincident with the late number for Jay Peak. Even with that late one, the average date of the first 1+ foot event in our valley comes in at Dec 14th, so for the mountains it should be at least that early. If Tony has the data, it would be interesting to know which Jay Peak values correspond to ’07-’08 and ’08-’09. There isn’t a date listed there that’s as early as Nov 20th, but that could also be a function of the difference between overnight/24-hour totals vs. storm totals.

November 20th is only a couple of days away, although our first 1+ foot storm certainly isn’t going to come that early this season due to the current pattern. However, with regard to this season’s snowfall, the pattern change for our area looks to be coming in around Thanksgiving (lots of great discussion about this on Easternuswx.com over the past week for those that are interested). The first foot may not happen right then, but in the Northern Greens it’s generally just a matter of time once the cold air is in place.

-J

 

[Marc_C]

This is a great photo. Artistic, hilarious and tragic all at once:

[.img]http://www.thesnowway.com/gallery/d/287-1/20061203jay05.jpg[/img]

Scary. You forgot scary. And depressing, too.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Jay dates: 11/30/00, 12/3/07, 12/3/05, 12/7/03, 12/27/04, 12/31/01, 1/14/06. They have not been consistent in publishing a daily archive. Missing seasons including last year I only got monthly info at the end of the season.

 

[rfarren]

Jay dates: 11/30/00, 12/3/07, 12/3/05, 12/7/03, 12/27/04, 12/31/01, 1/14/06. They have not been consistent in publishing a daily archive. Missing seasons including last year I only got monthly info at the end of the season.

Based on those numbers my guess for the first large snow storm will be 12.16

 

[rfarren]

Can we put a pool down and the closest person gets all the money.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Based on those numbers my guess for the first large snow storm will be 12.16

Expectation is probably earlier than that. Jay may be the snowiest area in the East but the probability someone else will get 12 inches first is not zero. Actually hasn't Le Massif already had a bigger storm? Patrick?

 

[jamesdeluxe]

hasn't Le Massif already had a bigger storm? Patrick?

Le Massif's website shows two feet of accumulation so far... I'm almost positive that they got at least a foot in one of the storms.

BTW, along with Whiteface, I wonder if this is becoming a trend on ski area homepages: a panoramic view of the mountain. I like it (although Le Massif loses points for using Flash, ugh). If you click on the different links, they've got photos and videos to underscore its main market differentiator -- the one about the train is very cool. I wonder what their marketing budget is... just between the website and that magazine I posted earlier, they've dropped a nice piece of change. Oh well, when the owner has Cirque du Soleil money coming in, I guess anything's possible.
http://www.lemassif.com/fr/accueil

 

[rfarren]

Whiteface's new page is substantially better than their old one. Not only is it faster, but it's laid out much better.