The Uncertainty With the Storm is Reaching New Levels
- Thread starter JimG.
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JimG.
New member
Aackkkkkkkkkkkkk!
So, Catamount and Jiminy might get pounded while northern NE might get bypassed. And who knows about the Catskills, they're kind of stuck in the middle and may or may not get dumped on.
I've avoided getting frustrated trying to plan several trips north with the family, but I'm starting to get antsy. MRG for a week from 2/28 to 3/5 is already planned, but I'm actually starting to wonder if there will be good snow to ski on.
F-it! I'll ski on rocks and branches if I have to!
So, Catamount and Jiminy might get pounded while northern NE might get bypassed. And who knows about the Catskills, they're kind of stuck in the middle and may or may not get dumped on.
I've avoided getting frustrated trying to plan several trips north with the family, but I'm starting to get antsy. MRG for a week from 2/28 to 3/5 is already planned, but I'm actually starting to wonder if there will be good snow to ski on.
F-it! I'll ski on rocks and branches if I have to!
powderfreak
New member
Yes, look for my thoughts about the situation later tonight in my column. This should be the main focus for anything in the east through mid-next week. I'm still digesting information and forming ideas. I'll try to have it out by 10 tonight.
Chromer
New member
Hmmm... The 18Z ETA at 0Z Sunday is about 100 miles north and 4mb stronger than the 12Z GFS for the same time period. Good news for southern Vermont. Unclear how northern VT, NH and ME will be affected yet, though it should bring "useful" snow at least 50 miles further north than the 12Z GFS indicated. Means it could "bomb out" more once it gets over water too, meaning a larger precipitation shield.
Sharon
New member
powderfreak
New member
I'll post a full update with new snow thoughts sometime this evening.
Basically, everything still looks similar to my earlier thinking except I might have to shift the axis of heaviest snow about 50-75 miles north.
-Scott
Basically, everything still looks similar to my earlier thinking except I might have to shift the axis of heaviest snow about 50-75 miles north.
-Scott
A
Anonymous
Guest
So where do you think the place to go this weekend will be? My current plan is to head up to Cannon for the telemark festival on Saturday, then check out somewhere else near by or possibly ski the Sherburne trail. However, looks like the snow is gonna be mostly to the south...think that will make Hunter or Belleayre a better option?
powderfreak
New member
I would have thought that the models would have come into better agreement today. No such luck. We are now only 60 hours out from when this thing reaches the east coast and I have never seen this type of model uncertainty. So as far as a forecast goes, I will not be making major changes from my earlier thinking which was the heaviest snowfall is in the central Appalachians of extreme northern WV through PA and then spreading towards the urban corridor from Baltimore to Philly and NYC. In this area I expect 6-12" with locally higher amounts if any meso-scale banding sets up. The fluff factor will be moderate in this area of the northern Mid-Atlantic and I expect snow ratios to be around 14 or 15 to 1.
All in all this system looks to be a fast mover as there is nothing in its path to slow it down. I'm basically looking for a quick 12 hour snowfall for the areas outlined above. With the fluff factor and good warm air advection ahead of the low, snowfall could start fast and will pile up quickly with rates of 1-2" per hour for a time and then taper off to quarter inch or half inch per hour rates. Snow will reach eastern PA and then the coast by Saturday evening. It'll snow heavy at times, especially in the Philly and NYC area Saturday night. This I am pretty certain of. I do think those areas get a good snowfall. Just how far north and south of NYC or Philly, I dont know.
I'll give you some food for thought:
Since this is a ski forum, I'm going to focus on the northward extend of significant snowfall. The ETA model would dump up to a foot in the Catskills, Berkshires, and even into extreme southern Vermont with snow ratios of 20 to 1. Temps would be in the upper single digits or low teens. That's fluffy snow. Ratios could be even higher if snow growth is maximized. Big flakes accumulate fast. ETA would even push 6" as far north as I-89 in Vermont....but I'm not really worried about that...I'm more worried with the spread in the ETA and GFS.
Here is some Model Output Statistics from the ETA and GFS for the most recent runs (note this will change around 11pm tonight):
For Newark, NJ:
GFS: 50% chance of precip with snowfall up to 2"
ETA: 80% chance of precip with 6" of snowfall
For Binghamton, NY:
GFS: around 60% chance of measurable precip with snowfall up to 2"
ETA: 80% chance of precip with snowfall up to 8"
For Albany, NY:
GFS: near 30% chance of precip with snowfall up to 1"
ETA: 70% chance of precip with snowfall up to 8"
For Burlington, VT:
GFS: Forget it...10% chance of anything.
ETA: 70% chance of precip with snowfall up to 6"
For Boston, MA:
GFS: 30% chance with up to 1" of snowfall.
ETA: 80% chance of precip with snowfall up to 8"
So you can see there are some large differences in the models right now. Throw in the UKMET, EURO, NOGAPS, GGEM and we've got solutions all over the place. NOGAPS is now the most agressive model with a closed low over the mid-Atlantic when this model is usually the least agressive. We are only 2 days away from the event!!
I'm going with a mix of all senarios and keeping heavy snow from Binghamton to Boston and southward. This area could see 6-12" of no buff fluff. Northward I think the precip will taper off quickly with up to 6" in southern VT and flurries for the Adirondacks and northern VT. South of the BGM-BOS line, I think its 6-12" with locally higher amounts down towards southeastern PA and southern NJ. Amounts will be highest closer to the coast with another maximum over the Appalachian spine. Precip might jump over areas just downwind of the Apps then strengthen closer to the coast with the low.
I'll throw out some more numbers by early tomorrow afternoon or maybe even in the morning if I get the time. By then, hopefully, the models will be in agreement. I keep thinking that and then another 12-24 hrs goes by and still nothing. The ETA slams southern New England while the GFS has it partly cloudy....and the other models are everywhere inbetween which is why I'm going middle of the road right now.
-Scott
All in all this system looks to be a fast mover as there is nothing in its path to slow it down. I'm basically looking for a quick 12 hour snowfall for the areas outlined above. With the fluff factor and good warm air advection ahead of the low, snowfall could start fast and will pile up quickly with rates of 1-2" per hour for a time and then taper off to quarter inch or half inch per hour rates. Snow will reach eastern PA and then the coast by Saturday evening. It'll snow heavy at times, especially in the Philly and NYC area Saturday night. This I am pretty certain of. I do think those areas get a good snowfall. Just how far north and south of NYC or Philly, I dont know.
I'll give you some food for thought:
Since this is a ski forum, I'm going to focus on the northward extend of significant snowfall. The ETA model would dump up to a foot in the Catskills, Berkshires, and even into extreme southern Vermont with snow ratios of 20 to 1. Temps would be in the upper single digits or low teens. That's fluffy snow. Ratios could be even higher if snow growth is maximized. Big flakes accumulate fast. ETA would even push 6" as far north as I-89 in Vermont....but I'm not really worried about that...I'm more worried with the spread in the ETA and GFS.
Here is some Model Output Statistics from the ETA and GFS for the most recent runs (note this will change around 11pm tonight):
For Newark, NJ:
GFS: 50% chance of precip with snowfall up to 2"
ETA: 80% chance of precip with 6" of snowfall
For Binghamton, NY:
GFS: around 60% chance of measurable precip with snowfall up to 2"
ETA: 80% chance of precip with snowfall up to 8"
For Albany, NY:
GFS: near 30% chance of precip with snowfall up to 1"
ETA: 70% chance of precip with snowfall up to 8"
For Burlington, VT:
GFS: Forget it...10% chance of anything.
ETA: 70% chance of precip with snowfall up to 6"
For Boston, MA:
GFS: 30% chance with up to 1" of snowfall.
ETA: 80% chance of precip with snowfall up to 8"
So you can see there are some large differences in the models right now. Throw in the UKMET, EURO, NOGAPS, GGEM and we've got solutions all over the place. NOGAPS is now the most agressive model with a closed low over the mid-Atlantic when this model is usually the least agressive. We are only 2 days away from the event!!
I'm going with a mix of all senarios and keeping heavy snow from Binghamton to Boston and southward. This area could see 6-12" of no buff fluff. Northward I think the precip will taper off quickly with up to 6" in southern VT and flurries for the Adirondacks and northern VT. South of the BGM-BOS line, I think its 6-12" with locally higher amounts down towards southeastern PA and southern NJ. Amounts will be highest closer to the coast with another maximum over the Appalachian spine. Precip might jump over areas just downwind of the Apps then strengthen closer to the coast with the low.
I'll throw out some more numbers by early tomorrow afternoon or maybe even in the morning if I get the time. By then, hopefully, the models will be in agreement. I keep thinking that and then another 12-24 hrs goes by and still nothing. The ETA slams southern New England while the GFS has it partly cloudy....and the other models are everywhere inbetween which is why I'm going middle of the road right now.
-Scott
powderfreak
New member
Anonymous":2abwfr9e said:
Or even Mountain Creek, NJ.
Hunter and Belleayre stand a significantly better shot at snow than Cannon...but will it be enough to make a difference? I dont know at this point. I'd say that 5-6" is a good bet right now with a chance at a foot of the fluffiest snow you've ever skied in those locations. Cannon will be lucky if it gathers more than 3-4" of snowfall. Weirder things have happened though....
-Scott
powderfreak
New member
I like my forecast from last night. Heavy snow will not make it north of a BGM-BOS line (6-12") with the bullseye falling on Long Island, NYC, Philly, and the rest of NJ. 12-18" of windblown powder should fall in those areas.
-Scott
-Scott
powderfreak
New member
Please Stay Tuned to your local National Weather Service Office or local news station if you live anywhere from Boston to Washington D.C. Current indications are now showing this low will strengthen quickly just off the coast by Sunday morning and it might move slower than previously expected. As the low strengthens, winds will increase and we could be seeing 30-50mph winds with some very light and fluffy snow. This will create blizzard conditions, especially in southeastern New England, Long Island, and northern New Jersey.
I would discourage travel up and down the Eastern Seaboard from Boston to Washington D.C. from Saturday afternoon until Sunday evening.
This will be a quick mover and generally in and out of any certain area in 16 hours but snow and wind maybe prolonged from NYC to Hartford to Providence to Boston as the low deepens and slows down. I still think 6-12" from D.C. northward to Binghamton then over to the VT/MA border and then over to the north coast of MA. Jackpot will be 12-18 with locally higher amounts from Philly to NYC to Hartford to Providence to Boston. Anywhere from those locations towards the southeastern New England coast stand to see true Blizzard conditions on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snowfall rates in these areas should be in the 2-4" per hour zone for a time Saturday evening and night. Models indicate 6-10" of snow in 6hr periods starting in NJ tomorrow afternoon and evening then moving to southeastern New England by Sunday morning.
Further north...expect 4-8" in Albany and southern VT up to Rutland and then over to Lebanon, NH with 1-4" north of that up to a Watertown-Burlington-Barre-Pinkham Notch line. There will be a sharp cut off in significant snowfall with lighter snowfall more widespread across the north.
-Scott
I would discourage travel up and down the Eastern Seaboard from Boston to Washington D.C. from Saturday afternoon until Sunday evening.
This will be a quick mover and generally in and out of any certain area in 16 hours but snow and wind maybe prolonged from NYC to Hartford to Providence to Boston as the low deepens and slows down. I still think 6-12" from D.C. northward to Binghamton then over to the VT/MA border and then over to the north coast of MA. Jackpot will be 12-18 with locally higher amounts from Philly to NYC to Hartford to Providence to Boston. Anywhere from those locations towards the southeastern New England coast stand to see true Blizzard conditions on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snowfall rates in these areas should be in the 2-4" per hour zone for a time Saturday evening and night. Models indicate 6-10" of snow in 6hr periods starting in NJ tomorrow afternoon and evening then moving to southeastern New England by Sunday morning.
Further north...expect 4-8" in Albany and southern VT up to Rutland and then over to Lebanon, NH with 1-4" north of that up to a Watertown-Burlington-Barre-Pinkham Notch line. There will be a sharp cut off in significant snowfall with lighter snowfall more widespread across the north.
-Scott