powderfreak
New member
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone. Santa must have missed my memo about a snowstorm because this one is going to be rain. I've been holding out hope that it'll change and if the low tracked even 50 miles south then northern NY and northern New England would get slammed. As it stands, heaviest snow threat is in far northern Maine where accumulations will likely be in the 12-24" range up near Fort Kent. There'll be two parts to this system tomorrow evening and into the morning on Monday...then Monday afternoon. The best moisture, lift, and dynamics will be on the front end with strong warm air advection and Atlantic moisture being thrown over the cold dome that is in the north country and eastern Canada. This will produce a good amount of precipitation with liquid amounts ranging from .75-1.5" across most of Upstate NY, VT, NH, and ME. The only problem is, the cold dome looks like it'll only be able to support significant snowfall in a definitive East-West line that looks like it'll set up within 15 miles of the US/Canadian border in NY, VT, and NH. Then continue that line into Rangeley, ME and then NEward to Millinocket, ME. North of that line will see significant snowfall. The only major U.S. ski resorts on the line between heavy snow and heavy 34F rain are Jay Peak and Sugarloaf. I think both of those areas could go either way. South of that, its going to be a cold rain or freezing rain as both the GFS and NAM have some scattered pockets of subfreezing air across the Adirondacks and northern Greens and Whites. 5000ft temps look to go up into the mid 30's and the atmosphere will be fairly isothermal except a few valleys that might stay right around freezing and could have some ice problems. This storm could be huge for our southern Canada friends...
Then, as the upper level low (which is currently closed over the Ohio Valley but will open up and then close off again in the northern Gulf of Maine) moves across southern New England on Monday morning we'll start to see a change to snow across northern NY first then moving into VT. After that, pretty much all areas should change over quickly across the rest of upstate NY, all of VT, NH and ME...as the low will strengthen and cold air advection will happen rapidly.
As far as snowfall I'm going with a general 3-6" wet snowfall on Monday afternoon into the nighttime hours across the Adirondacks, central and northern Green Mountains, and Whites. Most snow to the north, less to the south. This will be elevation dependent as valleys might not see enough precip to get much more than a slushy inch or two. Once the change to snow occurs, precipitation will likely be less stratiform and more broken/showery in nature. The high relative humidity air will be slammed into the higher terrain on the backside and forced to lift and precipitate. So I expect precip will continue in the mountains on Monday afternoon and into the night while the valleys become more like scattered wet snow showers.
Should the low close off further south or track a little further to the south, the heavy snow line could shift into northern NY/VT/NH and further south in Maine. However, with models initializing well on their 12z runs and no changes on the 18z runs, I'm thinking this one is pretty much a done deal (famous last words). I've been watching the western ridge as if for some reason it amplified a little higher than progged, it would force this system to dig a little deeper (southward). Doesn't appear to be happening. The western ridge and undercutting energy is our key to the next storm, as well.
After that, the storm system that is going to pummel the Sierra with a couple feet and high winds is cutting under the western ridge...it will traverse the country on the southern stream and looks like it'll take a track that is classic for a significant snowstorm across the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains on Thursday. The energy will be moving ashore in the next 24-48hrs and models will get a real good handle on it but if anyone read my Firsttracksonline.com column this system I mentioned was one worth watching. I should've hit this storm harder in the column as again it looks like the Sierras will be getting a relatively unmodeled hit. The split flow pattern looks like it could be very good for us back east, though, as anything that enters under the western ridge will roll across the southern portion of the nation before taking a northward turn somewhere along the east coast...gonna have to watch for possible phasing with this one. Rain on Monday could quickly be forgotten by Thursday.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. No matter what happens, enjoy skiing out there this week and be happy for what we've got!
-Scott
Then, as the upper level low (which is currently closed over the Ohio Valley but will open up and then close off again in the northern Gulf of Maine) moves across southern New England on Monday morning we'll start to see a change to snow across northern NY first then moving into VT. After that, pretty much all areas should change over quickly across the rest of upstate NY, all of VT, NH and ME...as the low will strengthen and cold air advection will happen rapidly.
As far as snowfall I'm going with a general 3-6" wet snowfall on Monday afternoon into the nighttime hours across the Adirondacks, central and northern Green Mountains, and Whites. Most snow to the north, less to the south. This will be elevation dependent as valleys might not see enough precip to get much more than a slushy inch or two. Once the change to snow occurs, precipitation will likely be less stratiform and more broken/showery in nature. The high relative humidity air will be slammed into the higher terrain on the backside and forced to lift and precipitate. So I expect precip will continue in the mountains on Monday afternoon and into the night while the valleys become more like scattered wet snow showers.
Should the low close off further south or track a little further to the south, the heavy snow line could shift into northern NY/VT/NH and further south in Maine. However, with models initializing well on their 12z runs and no changes on the 18z runs, I'm thinking this one is pretty much a done deal (famous last words). I've been watching the western ridge as if for some reason it amplified a little higher than progged, it would force this system to dig a little deeper (southward). Doesn't appear to be happening. The western ridge and undercutting energy is our key to the next storm, as well.
After that, the storm system that is going to pummel the Sierra with a couple feet and high winds is cutting under the western ridge...it will traverse the country on the southern stream and looks like it'll take a track that is classic for a significant snowstorm across the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains on Thursday. The energy will be moving ashore in the next 24-48hrs and models will get a real good handle on it but if anyone read my Firsttracksonline.com column this system I mentioned was one worth watching. I should've hit this storm harder in the column as again it looks like the Sierras will be getting a relatively unmodeled hit. The split flow pattern looks like it could be very good for us back east, though, as anything that enters under the western ridge will roll across the southern portion of the nation before taking a northward turn somewhere along the east coast...gonna have to watch for possible phasing with this one. Rain on Monday could quickly be forgotten by Thursday.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. No matter what happens, enjoy skiing out there this week and be happy for what we've got!
-Scott