Interesting article:
http://www.sltrib.com/wintersports/ci_13834685
http://www.sltrib.com/wintersports/ci_13834685
Utah snow quality
- Thread starter Admin
- Start date
Admin, didn't you detect a few of my fingerprints on that article? :lol:
Jim Steenburgh consulted me a couple of times this summer while he was doing that study. Naturally it was while I was using the molasses-like internet connection on Costa Classica.
Jim Steenburgh consulted me a couple of times this summer while he was doing that study. Naturally it was while I was using the molasses-like internet connection on Costa Classica.
Really? I was sure that the Salt Lake Tourism Center ghost wrote it.Tony Crocker":w3se0i88 said:
Good article! In my book Utah has the best snow I have ever been on. I will nitpick about one small thing, winter park co get way more then 230 inchs of snow(maybe downtown in town. Here is a link to the website, they used to have far more info going back alot longer but then they got bought out and I havn't seen it.
http://www.skiwinterpark.com/mountain/s ... istory.htm
http://www.skiwinterpark.com/mountain/s ... istory.htm
They did not use my site for the snowfall averages:
My numbers:
Alta » 530 inches over 42 years vs. probably 28 on Alta website when the article was being prepared
Mt. Baker, Wash. » 637 inches ; The ski area quotes a number I gave them a few years ago. Last couple of years lowered their average a bit.
Arapahoe Basin, Colo. » 319 inches @ 10,820
Breckenridge, Colo. » 288 inches @ 11,100
Steamboat Springs, Colo. » 379 inches @ 9,200
Telluride, Colo. » 277 inches @ 11,170
Winter Park, Colo. » 357 inches @ 10,800, 218 at the base
Squaw Valley, Calif. » 448 inches @ 8,000, 272 at the base
I agree, not fair to use a base number for Winter Park and high up the mountain for most CO areas. That's why I always try to use the elevation numbers in conjunction with any snowfall quotes. The print media usually disdains the extra 5-6 characters of space per area that would be needed to provide that info to their readers.
My numbers:
Alta » 530 inches over 42 years vs. probably 28 on Alta website when the article was being prepared
Mt. Baker, Wash. » 637 inches ; The ski area quotes a number I gave them a few years ago. Last couple of years lowered their average a bit.
Arapahoe Basin, Colo. » 319 inches @ 10,820
Breckenridge, Colo. » 288 inches @ 11,100
Steamboat Springs, Colo. » 379 inches @ 9,200
Telluride, Colo. » 277 inches @ 11,170
Winter Park, Colo. » 357 inches @ 10,800, 218 at the base
Squaw Valley, Calif. » 448 inches @ 8,000, 272 at the base
I agree, not fair to use a base number for Winter Park and high up the mountain for most CO areas. That's why I always try to use the elevation numbers in conjunction with any snowfall quotes. The print media usually disdains the extra 5-6 characters of space per area that would be needed to provide that info to their readers.
If November stays relatively dry, which looks possible, would this be the worst ever November for Alta and Utah at large? I thought '07/'08 was the worst (and it seems this year is still below that year's total), though I'm not sure about '76/'77... I remember years growing up when the PC slopes were completely brown for Thanksgiving, but the October storm this year and snowmaking are deceiving (from a webcam point-of-view) as to where we're really at for Christmas.
As Admin has said before, things can turn around real fast. Still patiently holding the trigger on buying airfare...
Also, I think I read once where Tony said there wasn't a significant difference between snow totals from the base to the upper elevations at Alta. Is this really true? Orographics should still be at work, right? Is there a snow stake higher up at Alta? Seems possible that the Grizzly Gulch and Supreme areas (near the crest of LCC) should push near 600". If Alta were like most ski resorts they would gleefully report the higher total, but since they're not marketing-driven it makes me wonder what the true totals at 10,500' feet really are...
I know the article is focused on specific physical snow qualities, but to me there's a lot more involved in the hunt for powder. Tony, I think the next step for your bestsnow site is to quantify actual # of high-quality powder days, not just snow totals (though I imagine that's impossible)... I know you tried with the % odds of 6+" powder days, but I still don't think that quite gets to the truth.
One thing the article misses is consistency of storms which snow enough, but not too much (say 8"-30") to qualify for true 'bottomless' powder days. I think that is where Utah truly shines. Some California resorts get similar total snow (and IMHO snow density is not as big a factor as it used to be given wide parabolic skis and snowboards), but in my experience the snow tends to come in a handful of very large storms which essentially shut down access - and by the time the steeper slopes are avalanched controlled (and potentially significantly wind damaged) days potentially have gone by. Plus, the heavier snow does set up much faster than in Utah, so it's tough to get good, soft snow several days after a storm. On a side-note I do think in general the term 'Sierra Cement' is simply not warranted - I've had too many good days that compare to 'nearly' the best Utah has to offer at Kirkwood, Squaw, Alpine and even Heavenly to know the area doesn't deserve the poor reputation it has for snow. It's just tougher to get those days in Tahoe vs. Utah... I can't speak much on Canadian resorts since I've only been lucky enough to go to Whistler for a few trips, but the travel involved to any Canadian resort means powder is difficult for me to time. Colorado/New Mexico resorts do get drier snow, but dumps of 8" or more are rare, as Tony has written. It's not a guarantee by any stretch, but on any given week-long trip the odds of a true powder day at Utah must be several times that of any other area (taking into account not only snow totals but all other variables as well). The only area I would imagine comes close is the combination of Jackson Hole/Targhee (but there you have exposure issues and I doubt you get the April powder days like you can in LCC). And the article mentions Niseko, but, again, trying to time that powder from the U.S. West Coast has got to bring the odds down quite a bit. I've certainly found that if I watch the long-term forecasts for significant snow patterns and buy airfare even 2 weeks in advance (which sometimes saves $$$) I get more powder days in Utah than I can in Tahoe, even though I'm within driving distance to Tahoe resorts. And, to drive the nail in further, in most cases I can actually be on snow in Utah faster (~90 minute flight) than my drive to Tahoe...
Yet another advantage of Utah when it comes to finding good snow conditions not mentioned in the article is the incredible proximity of resorts and the fact that there's a wide variation of exposure/elevation/trees vs. alpine/snow totals between each. If the open slopes of Snowbird or Snowbasin are wind-scoured or low visibility, odds are that there's still some great skiing in the trees at Powder Mountain or Solitude (I've skied excellent 5-day-old untracked snow at PM a day after horrendous conditions at Snowbasin and felt like I must have been on a different continent - certainly not within eyeshot). Likewise, if LCC/BCC are shut down due to avalanche control then somewhere like Sundance or one the PC resorts is having an epic day. Even if a storm is forecast for a few inches, lake effect may dump 10" more at the Ogden or Cottonwood resorts (but probably not both). And of course, Alta is in a league of it's own, even compared to it's neighbors a few feet away... One of the funnest/most aggravating things for me when visiting Utah is scouring the web and phone snow reports each night/morning trying to decide where we'll get the best conditions given a million variables. It's a good problem to have...
As Admin has said before, things can turn around real fast. Still patiently holding the trigger on buying airfare...
Also, I think I read once where Tony said there wasn't a significant difference between snow totals from the base to the upper elevations at Alta. Is this really true? Orographics should still be at work, right? Is there a snow stake higher up at Alta? Seems possible that the Grizzly Gulch and Supreme areas (near the crest of LCC) should push near 600". If Alta were like most ski resorts they would gleefully report the higher total, but since they're not marketing-driven it makes me wonder what the true totals at 10,500' feet really are...
I know the article is focused on specific physical snow qualities, but to me there's a lot more involved in the hunt for powder. Tony, I think the next step for your bestsnow site is to quantify actual # of high-quality powder days, not just snow totals (though I imagine that's impossible)... I know you tried with the % odds of 6+" powder days, but I still don't think that quite gets to the truth.
One thing the article misses is consistency of storms which snow enough, but not too much (say 8"-30") to qualify for true 'bottomless' powder days. I think that is where Utah truly shines. Some California resorts get similar total snow (and IMHO snow density is not as big a factor as it used to be given wide parabolic skis and snowboards), but in my experience the snow tends to come in a handful of very large storms which essentially shut down access - and by the time the steeper slopes are avalanched controlled (and potentially significantly wind damaged) days potentially have gone by. Plus, the heavier snow does set up much faster than in Utah, so it's tough to get good, soft snow several days after a storm. On a side-note I do think in general the term 'Sierra Cement' is simply not warranted - I've had too many good days that compare to 'nearly' the best Utah has to offer at Kirkwood, Squaw, Alpine and even Heavenly to know the area doesn't deserve the poor reputation it has for snow. It's just tougher to get those days in Tahoe vs. Utah... I can't speak much on Canadian resorts since I've only been lucky enough to go to Whistler for a few trips, but the travel involved to any Canadian resort means powder is difficult for me to time. Colorado/New Mexico resorts do get drier snow, but dumps of 8" or more are rare, as Tony has written. It's not a guarantee by any stretch, but on any given week-long trip the odds of a true powder day at Utah must be several times that of any other area (taking into account not only snow totals but all other variables as well). The only area I would imagine comes close is the combination of Jackson Hole/Targhee (but there you have exposure issues and I doubt you get the April powder days like you can in LCC). And the article mentions Niseko, but, again, trying to time that powder from the U.S. West Coast has got to bring the odds down quite a bit. I've certainly found that if I watch the long-term forecasts for significant snow patterns and buy airfare even 2 weeks in advance (which sometimes saves $$$) I get more powder days in Utah than I can in Tahoe, even though I'm within driving distance to Tahoe resorts. And, to drive the nail in further, in most cases I can actually be on snow in Utah faster (~90 minute flight) than my drive to Tahoe...
Yet another advantage of Utah when it comes to finding good snow conditions not mentioned in the article is the incredible proximity of resorts and the fact that there's a wide variation of exposure/elevation/trees vs. alpine/snow totals between each. If the open slopes of Snowbird or Snowbasin are wind-scoured or low visibility, odds are that there's still some great skiing in the trees at Powder Mountain or Solitude (I've skied excellent 5-day-old untracked snow at PM a day after horrendous conditions at Snowbasin and felt like I must have been on a different continent - certainly not within eyeshot). Likewise, if LCC/BCC are shut down due to avalanche control then somewhere like Sundance or one the PC resorts is having an epic day. Even if a storm is forecast for a few inches, lake effect may dump 10" more at the Ogden or Cottonwood resorts (but probably not both). And of course, Alta is in a league of it's own, even compared to it's neighbors a few feet away... One of the funnest/most aggravating things for me when visiting Utah is scouring the web and phone snow reports each night/morning trying to decide where we'll get the best conditions given a million variables. It's a good problem to have...
No, especially since some of October's snow is still around, as salida et al remind me.
1976: 13.5 inches
2007: 21.5 inches. Very similar to this year as Alta had 53 inches in October and a 21-inch base on 11/16 vs. 20 now.
1974: 25 inches
1999: 31 inches. Worse than this year since 11/16 total including October was only 8 inches.
1980: 34 inches
1987: 34.5 inches
1976 (Alta 17 inches December) and 1980 (Alta 34 inches December) were certainly worse as drought was widespread in the West past Christmas. Interesting the 2 worst Decembers followed the worst and 5th worst Novembers. With October average of 28 the other 2 years 1974 and 1987 rate to be similar to this year and 2007. All of this assumes Utah is done with snow for November.
That was the point of that exercise. The 6" odds are quite stable for both volatile and consistent resorts. I tested 12" also. A good rule of thumb is that probability of 12+ = .5 x (probability of 6+) - 3%. For California that multiplier is more like .6, for the most consistent places like Targhee or Steamboat probably .4.
Avalanche control once a storm is over is a function of area topography plus how much the area's patrol has its act together. Alta/Snowbird are good at post-storm control, but Squaw/Alpine/Mammoth are too. I think what rsmith sees here has a different explanation. If you get 12+ inches several days in a row at an area with lots of avy terrain the middle days are going to be severely terrain restricted. Correlation of day-to-next-day snowfall is 38% at Mammoth vs. 27% at Steamboat. So the Sierra is more likely to have those "lost" middle days during sustained storms. Alta volatility measures are much closer to Steamboat than Mammoth.
I think a big powder advantage of Alta/Snowbird over Squaw/Alpine/Mammoth is the chronic high winds at the latter that tend to pack the powder. But Kirkwood does better there and is surely the closest Sierra rival to Alta/Snowbird in terms of powder.
Correct, pretty close midwinter, but LCC advantage grows starting mid-February or so.
Agree, though Tahoe has the diversity also. I've had great storm days in the trees at Northstar/Heavenly/June when Squaw/Alpine/Mammoth would have had a tiny fraction of terrain open. I also had powder all day long in the Mt. Rose Chutes during President's weekend, an "under the radar" experience like Snowbasin/Powder Mt.
At 150 inches/month in Dec/Jan the odds are pretty good. I do read that skier traffic is increasing, though supposedly most of the increase starts at the Australian national holiday of Jan. 26.
Agree, but average 8% vs. 13% still counts for something.
The point in the article I found most interesting was the tendency within Alta's storms for the snow to start out denser and gradually get lighter. There is no question IMHO this the optimal pattern for good powder skiing. I see this to some degree at Mammoth, though Mammoth overall does not rate that high for powder due to chronic wind on its best terrain. But in the PNW the snow levels tend to bounce around within storms and there are occasions when the storms end warm, degrading the powder (very rare at Alta/Snowbird). The Whistler alpine does seem to me to be a cut above the rest of the PNW. Altitude/latitude keep it out of the rain most of the time, and the powder may not be Utah density but it's not 13% either by my experience.