It's as if i heard my name being called...
I was just checking around to see how you all are doing waiting for winter to start.
For bestskiweather.com and Jim, I'm probably not going to touch that subject much. However, one good thing is that I have a friend who's a great guy and is very knowledgeable, new prof at Lyndon State, Jay Shafer. I think he said he and (mainly) his students would be helping Jim out with his site some this year. I think making posts to the blog.
For weather, and learning about weather, discussions are excellent. Utahskiweather.com i obviously endorse
, but the NWS are also excellent, ..and a very helpful tool is the glossary http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
It translates many of the terms and abbreviations.
For forecasts, the 2 best options by far are the NWS's cottonwood forecast and utahskiweather.com. When I check the NWS forecast, they're usually in pretty good agreement with ours, sometimes they tend to forecast a bit more snow. Check out both, ...a consensus forecast is usually the best forecast. The NWS digital forecasts, found here http://www.avalanche.org/~uac/weather.html
in the 3 and 7-day tables in my experience are quite bad. As are most other snow forecast sites, some of which just directly dump out computer model output for that grid point in the model. Computer models do pretty well in areas of non-complex terrain in most cases these days, however, over complex terrain a lot of human input is still needed.
Latest GFS run still shows the mon/tues trough as a lot of cold air, but not much moisture. I guess at least the air will be plenty cold for last minute snowmaking..
If you want to check out some of the model graphics we use to forecast, they're here:
http://www.met.utah.edu/cgi-bin/jimstee ... ainGFS.cgi
http://www.met.utah.edu/cgi-bin/jimstee ... ainNAM.cgi
Next to 'synoptic 4-panel' select 180hr loop (for GFS) 84hr loop (for NAM) (if the whole model run has come in). the bottom 2 panels are good to look at. the bottom left shows you RH through the averaged over the lower half of the atmosphere, and 10,000ft winds, the bottom right shows you precip. The models dont "see" the mountains that well, so you have to do some interpretting yourself, but that's where the some of the human part comes in. the top 2 panels show upper level troughs/ridges and jet stream. Those are a little more difficult to explain in plain english. The model runs come in 4 times a day. The model times at the bottom are a little tough to decode. There's the date (YYMMDD), then the 2 numbers before 'F' tell you when the model was started in UTC time (00=5pm, 06=11pm, 12=5am, 18=11am), and the numbers after 'F' tell you how many hours out from then the forecast is for. Anyway, if you have questions, let me know. We're also always please to get feedback/questions at utahskiweather.