powderfreak
New member
Winter *is* here for at least a 10 day visit. Hopefully this is the
period of beginning of a period I've been waiting for at the end of Feb
and early March. Last week's column was pretty down and I can't denie the
fact that even when it looks good or has been cold and somewhat
snowy...nature still threw us Friday's curveball of thaw then deep
freeze. Besides that episode, the past two weeks haven't been bad at
all. I've had several powder days, a 10-incher, an 8-incher, and a few
little 3-4" ones at Stowe and in the Mansfield backcountry.
That looks to continue through early March, we just don't need any more
hiccups.
Again, we find ourselves recovering...some areas should recover quite well
over the next week with a shot at gold next week. The pattern is ripe,
its a split flow with moisture moving along the southern branch. The flow
is very zonal right now but will begin to amplify later this week in the
Thurs-Fri time frame and then could go to town in the Sun-Tue time frame.
TEMPERATURES:
Temperatures should will be near seasonal averages through Saturday with
lows in the 5-15F range and highs in the 25-35F range...rising only above
freezing in the larger valleys. Weather highlights will be light snowfall
tomorrow/tomorrow night...moderate snowfall on Thurs-Friday...and then
something Sun-Tues. All precip next 10 days will be frozen.
WIND:
Wind strong enough to affect lift operations and/or any other recreational
interests are not expected until early next week (Mon or Tues).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY WEATHER:
Tomorrow, clipper approaches and light snow showers will overspread the
north country, mainly over the higher terrain. This system does not have
a lot of moisture to work with at all, however, an upper level vort max
tracks right over the northern Adirondacks, Burlington, and northern
Greens. This will enhance snowfall dynamically across the northern tier
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Snowfall accumulations should be anywhere
from only a trace to 2" everywhere except up to 3" across the northern
slopes of the Adirondacks and the spine from Jay to Mansfield.
Moisture exits the region but only breifly on Wednesday morning. Mountain
snow showers should begin to build again by Wednesday evening with an area
of light snow moving across the region on Wednesday night with no more
than an inch or so by Thursday morning. Light snow continues during the
day on Thursday but with little, if any, accumulation, as a slow moving
clipper pushes in on Thursday night. This thing looks like it has some
juice and may also tap some Atlantic moisture. Again, heaviest snowfall
looks to be across the north with snowfall amounts tapering as you head
southward from the Canadian border. This looks be a fluffy, 3-7" snowfall
from Killington northward on the Spine and in the Adirondacks from south
to north by Friday morning. This will be an interesting system to watch
for me as it'll give clues to what happens over the weekend and into early
next week.
NEXT WEEKEND/EARL NEXT WEEK:
Another area of energy moves across the US/CA border in the northern
stream that is quickly amplifying. Energy in the southwest/four corners
region gets ejected in the southern stream...where do they meet? All
model guidence is showing that they do not phase until off the New England
coast where the energy cuts off and deepens rapidly. It will bring
another very cold shot of air but this time upslope snow looks to be a
good possibility. So without going into much more detail, this time
period looks ripe for snowfall, likely significant somewhere in New
England with a classic "Miller B" type east coast storm (clipper dives
southeastward out of SE Canada or the Great Lakes, phases with southern
jet energy and quickly closes off near the coast, drags cold air down and
continues to throw back moisture over the region as winds increase). Even
if it occurs too late and too far northward, significant upslope snowfall
would occur.
Enjoy what this winter has to offer us.
-Scott
period of beginning of a period I've been waiting for at the end of Feb
and early March. Last week's column was pretty down and I can't denie the
fact that even when it looks good or has been cold and somewhat
snowy...nature still threw us Friday's curveball of thaw then deep
freeze. Besides that episode, the past two weeks haven't been bad at
all. I've had several powder days, a 10-incher, an 8-incher, and a few
little 3-4" ones at Stowe and in the Mansfield backcountry.
That looks to continue through early March, we just don't need any more
hiccups.
Again, we find ourselves recovering...some areas should recover quite well
over the next week with a shot at gold next week. The pattern is ripe,
its a split flow with moisture moving along the southern branch. The flow
is very zonal right now but will begin to amplify later this week in the
Thurs-Fri time frame and then could go to town in the Sun-Tue time frame.
TEMPERATURES:
Temperatures should will be near seasonal averages through Saturday with
lows in the 5-15F range and highs in the 25-35F range...rising only above
freezing in the larger valleys. Weather highlights will be light snowfall
tomorrow/tomorrow night...moderate snowfall on Thurs-Friday...and then
something Sun-Tues. All precip next 10 days will be frozen.
WIND:
Wind strong enough to affect lift operations and/or any other recreational
interests are not expected until early next week (Mon or Tues).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY WEATHER:
Tomorrow, clipper approaches and light snow showers will overspread the
north country, mainly over the higher terrain. This system does not have
a lot of moisture to work with at all, however, an upper level vort max
tracks right over the northern Adirondacks, Burlington, and northern
Greens. This will enhance snowfall dynamically across the northern tier
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Snowfall accumulations should be anywhere
from only a trace to 2" everywhere except up to 3" across the northern
slopes of the Adirondacks and the spine from Jay to Mansfield.
Moisture exits the region but only breifly on Wednesday morning. Mountain
snow showers should begin to build again by Wednesday evening with an area
of light snow moving across the region on Wednesday night with no more
than an inch or so by Thursday morning. Light snow continues during the
day on Thursday but with little, if any, accumulation, as a slow moving
clipper pushes in on Thursday night. This thing looks like it has some
juice and may also tap some Atlantic moisture. Again, heaviest snowfall
looks to be across the north with snowfall amounts tapering as you head
southward from the Canadian border. This looks be a fluffy, 3-7" snowfall
from Killington northward on the Spine and in the Adirondacks from south
to north by Friday morning. This will be an interesting system to watch
for me as it'll give clues to what happens over the weekend and into early
next week.
NEXT WEEKEND/EARL NEXT WEEK:
Another area of energy moves across the US/CA border in the northern
stream that is quickly amplifying. Energy in the southwest/four corners
region gets ejected in the southern stream...where do they meet? All
model guidence is showing that they do not phase until off the New England
coast where the energy cuts off and deepens rapidly. It will bring
another very cold shot of air but this time upslope snow looks to be a
good possibility. So without going into much more detail, this time
period looks ripe for snowfall, likely significant somewhere in New
England with a classic "Miller B" type east coast storm (clipper dives
southeastward out of SE Canada or the Great Lakes, phases with southern
jet energy and quickly closes off near the coast, drags cold air down and
continues to throw back moisture over the region as winds increase). Even
if it occurs too late and too far northward, significant upslope snowfall
would occur.
Enjoy what this winter has to offer us.
-Scott
