Weather Thoughts

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powderfreak

New member
Still looking like a one two shot of snowfall with this upcoming clipper.
I still think the NWS isn't hitting the upslope snow in VT as hard as they
should. 12z NAM on the 5km grid pummels Mansfield to Jay Peak for 6-9hrs
on Thursday night. Total precipitation along the Green Mountain spine for
the event from tonight into thursday morning is .25-.5" with .5-.75" from
I-89 northward to Jay Peak. Snow will probably start off with a 10 to 1
ratio but by the time temps crash into the lower teens in the mountains by
midnight Thursday snow ratios should increase towards 20 to 1. Looks like
good dendrite growth later on in the event too.

I'll go with 1-3" in Champlain Valley (BTV/PLB) and White River Valley
(Lebanon, White River Junction), 2-5" southern VT and southern Adirondacks
(Mt Snow to Gore), 4-8" northern Adirondacks and central Greens
(Whiteface, Killington, MRG), and 6-12" northern Greens (Bolton, Smuggs,
Stowe, Jay). In town near each of these ski resorts, amounts will likely
be less as those are for the ski resorts/mtns at say 2,000ft. If you're
down around 1,000ft take it down a notch and if you are down at 300-500ft
like the major valleys then drop it down to 1-3".

This will be fluffy stuff.

Now something bigger and way mo' betta is showing up around January 31st
or in the 6-8 day range. The models have surprisingly good consistency
with this one over the past 24-48hrs. Past three runs of the GFS, Euro,
and UKMET would have most of the northeast north of I-90 measuring
snowfall in...well, I won't get into any model interpretation as its too
far away and even good model agreement means that Armageddon is still
unlikely. Lets just say ski season would be taken up a notch or three.
By far the strongest signalled event of the season so far and I'll keep an
eye on it. BTV's morning discussion mentioned it:

RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE
CWA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG
AS IT MVS E ACROSS THE SE/OHIO VALLEY...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
INTO CWA BY MON MORN. W/ SFC HIGH TO NORTH OF FA MON...SFC SYSTEM
FLATTENS OUT OVER MID-ATLANTIC REGION...TRANSFERRING TO COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY. CURRENT MENTION OF CHANCE SNOW LOOKS GD ATTM...BUT
MDLS HAVE ABUNDANT QPF W/ LOW AND COULD BE BIG EVENT...BUT IS DAY 7
AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT IF SUBSEQUENT MDLS RUNS KEEP SAME TRACK FOR
THIS LOW.

Knock on wood...

-Scott
 
Most NH and ME ski resorts (Bretton Woods, Wildcat, Cannon, Sunday River, Sugarloaf) should recieve 6-12" with most in the north. It'll be an interesting set up in Maine and eastern NH as the coastal low takes over...it could do some funny stuff and might allow for that 6-12" zone to extend into southern NH and even coastal Maine.

I see the NWS has snow advisories and Heavy Snow Warnings up for that region...its nice to have winter back though, isn't it?
 
powderfreak":2ec5hidj said:
Most NH and ME ski resorts (Bretton Woods, Wildcat, Cannon, Sunday River, Sugarloaf) should recieve 6-12" with most in the north. It'll be an interesting set up in Maine and eastern NH as the coastal low takes over...it could do some funny stuff and might allow for that 6-12" zone to extend into southern NH and even coastal Maine.

I see the NWS has snow advisories and Heavy Snow Warnings up for that region...its nice to have winter back though, isn't it?
Click to expand...


hmmm wildcat orcannon for tomorrow, most forcasts I saw said a lot more at wildcat, why because of that norland(sp?) trough or something like that.
 
awf170":18i8uhma said:
powderfreak":18i8uhma said:
Most NH and ME ski resorts (Bretton Woods, Wildcat, Cannon, Sunday River, Sugarloaf) should recieve 6-12" with most in the north. It'll be an interesting set up in Maine and eastern NH as the coastal low takes over...it could do some funny stuff and might allow for that 6-12" zone to extend into southern NH and even coastal Maine.

I see the NWS has snow advisories and Heavy Snow Warnings up for that region...its nice to have winter back though, isn't it?
Click to expand...


hmmm wildcat orcannon for tomorrow, most forcasts I saw said a lot more at wildcat, why because of that norland(sp?) trough or something like that.
Click to expand...

Just in time for my trip to Cannon Feb 10.
 
The NAM... That model has been a bust all winter long.. Not that the GFS has been any better. The FOUS for BTV is nothing to have a party about.. I guess you would wring out .30 over a 30hr period.. That said, what about the warm up for this weekend.. The 850 line north of Caraboo..
 
jasoncapecod":1rlilns2 said:
The NAM... That model has been a bust all winter long.. Not that the GFS has been any better. The FOUS for BTV is nothing to have a party about.. I guess you would wring out .30 over a 30hr period.. That said, what about the warm up for this weekend.. The 850 line north of Caraboo..
Click to expand...

GFS has been very good this winter. I've actually regained respect for it this winter and prefer it over the European as that is usually the model that tells all. The problem is not in the details but in the larger scale spatial ideas...and the GFS has been very, very good this winter. It might not be easily apparent but I see every model run (4 a day) of the GFS and NAM as well as two a day from the EURO, UKMET, Canadian and Navy Nogaps. GFS out to day 7 has been the best and all models have been horrendous past day 7 but when each model is corrected for whatever bias they have, you can get a general idea of what will happen.

The warm up this weekend will not be very pronounced at all. Temps in the mountains will be in the 30's but no snowpack ruining temps or rain will occur. The 2 meter temps show cold air sticking around in the lower levels so I'd expect some inversions this weekend in the northeast as usual in the mornings and possibly in the afternoons as well. No blowtorch.

Here are some last thoughts on tonight and on the column coming out tomorrow evening:

I'm still very impressed with whatever happens early next week. It does look like a slow mover with multiple days of light to moderate snow vs. a 24hr blitz. All models I have seen (American and Global) show some sort of definitive low pressure and/or upper level cut off low sitting somewhere in New England on Monday. I have not seen one solution that would yeild anything other than snow early next week.

On another note with this ongoing system...

1) Still going with 6-12" total from Killington northward and now southern VT will get in on that as Woodford, VT (Mount Snow region) has 8" of snow already as of 6pm...while only 3" has fallen in Danby (Rutland County at 1,500ft). All short term models and current trends support the NWS's 4-8" overnight accumulations from Sugarbush through Jay Peak with isolated higher amounts. I think 8-12 overnight could fall in some locations that see consistent heavier showers.

CXX (BTV) radar is lighting up like a Christmas Tree from Montreal to Plattsburgh to Burlington and Middlebury. Composite radar and VAD wind profile show nearly perfect NW flow for VT side of Champlain Valley and western slopes of the Green Mountains. Composite radar showing organized snowfall from Jay Peak to Camels Hump currently in the process of working southward. I expect rounds of snow to occur at least through 1am with light snow likely lasting through morning along the Green Mountain Spine.

Look for thoughts on the Sun-Tue time frame in my Firsttracksonline.com column tomorrow evening. I'll post a link on the list. I like having the ability to post it either late on Wednesday or on Thursday. In this case, the extra day for seeing what the model ensembles are forecasting for early next week will give me a better forecast for the week. Plus, this event will have ended and I won't have to issue a "short term" type of thing through tomorrow morning when most won't read it till its over anyway.

Enjoy any snow you get. More details tomorrow on why February and March will be snow filled.

-Scott
 
I am mildly excited about the event for Mon and Tues of next week.. Trying not to get my hopes up .. The 12z Canadian is looking sooo sweet.
The 12z GFS needs to be a little more south and east to hook me up.(just north of NYC) The run to run inconsistencies of the GFS has been killing me. As long as we can get a strong and stable North Atlantic block life is good...
Cheers Jason
 
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