powderfreak
New member
Sorry for a late update?
Area of Focus: Upstate NY, MA, VT, NH, ME
Storm Time Frame: Monday Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon
Impacts: Moderate to Heavy Snowfall 12am Tues- 12pm Tues, Minor Upslope Snowfall in Catskills and Berkshires (Tues-Wed morning), Major Upslope Snow Event for northern Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and northern White Mountains (Tues afternoon through possibly Thursday afternoon).
Currently there is a very strong low pressure system that just crossed Florida and is now in the Atlantic Ocean just off the coasts of GA and SC. This low is trucking along right now but is also blowing guidance out of the water. All models still predict this thing to be 6-8mb weaker than it currently is. Between tomorrow morning and Tuesday morning, this low will take a track just (and I mean by only miles) off the coast of Cape Hatteras and goes negative with a track straight for the southern New England coast. During this time period, this low will undergo bombogenesis (a 24mb pressure drop in 24 hrs), which is a very rare occurrence. My storm track has the low coming ashore in southern New England in Rhode Island and riding northward from there.
While recent model guidance is still far too weak with the low, I want to discount most of the model runs. However, there is one new fact that models are throwing into the mix. For the past two days it appeared that the low would not be captured by the massive upper level trough dropping through the Great Lakes. Well, now there are hints that this storm will be captured by the upper level trough and could stall much further south than earlier thought. I?m keeping a forecast that does not have a capture until the low is north of New England because since the low is stronger than projected it means there is a much stronger subtropical jet. A stronger subtropical jet implies a faster movement of the low and that is what we are seeing. Models are too weak and up to 4 hours too slow.
What this all means for the north country of the northeast is that we will see a blast of heavy snow Monday night into Tuesday. Then precipitation will taper off to occasional light snow on Tuesday afternoon as the low slows to a crawl just north of New England and a dry slot works its way up. Once the low gets far enough north, the back edge will swing through on Tuesday evening bringing some more snow and starting the upslope snow event that could last till Thursday afternoon in the northern Green Mountains.
I?d like to leave the idea open that the models have this being so close to getting captured by the upper level trough and whenever that happens is when this storm will throw on the breaks. My thinking is this will happen just north of New England but should it cut off in New England or southern New England it could mean that the north country is stuck in a much longer dry-slot as precipitation will be much lighter under the actual low pressure system. Areas to the northwest of the low climatologically get more snowfall especially due to deformation band formation. This would then bring more significant snowfall to the Adirondacks all the way down to West Virginia. I?ll update tomorrow morning if I see this happening.
So, the forecast goes like this:
Snow breaks out from south to north starting in the Catskills by early afternoon and spreading north to the Canadian border by midnight. Snow will fall very heavily at times across most of the northeast on Monday night. I?m looking for a 4-6 hour period of snowfall moving northward through the region with average snowfall rates of 1-2? per hour. It will move through quickly but it will snow hard. Temperatures will be cold enough by far for all snow and if snow growth is maximized this will be amazing powder snow on top of our already deep bases.
Look for widespread 6-12? by Tuesday morning with the most in the south (Catskills) and less by the Canadian border (northern Greens and Whites). Snow will continue through noon on Tuesday before winding down and becoming occasional lighter snow. At this time, heavy snowfall will be coving a lot of western New York from lake enhancement and moist cyclonic flow around the low pressure system. This heavy snowfall will stretch down the Apps into West Virginia. The low will very slow drift NNE and its only a matter of time before the upslope snow hits the Green Mountains. I?ve seen some pretty spectacular orographic snowfall events along the Green Mountain spine and this will not disappoint.
By now, we are out to Tuesday night and its still snowing across western NY, the Adirondacks, and the Appalachian spine down into WV. On a side note, WV higher terrain and west facing slopes could see up to two feet out of this. After this, it is only timing and a wait until the snows fill back in across the Green and White Mountains. I believe the Green Mountain spine will see the most significant upslope snowfall. A 24 hour moist, cyclonic flow out of the NW accompanied by lots of upper level dynamics and vort maxes have me baffled on just how much snow will fall in the northern Green Mountains and northern Adirondacks. Updates will be needed during this long duration event but I will give forecasted amounts from 6pm Monday through 6pm Tuesday and then throw out some guesses on the upslope snowfall.
Snowfall Amounts Monday 6pm ? Tuesday 6pm:
Catskills?.8-14?
Berkshires?8-14?
Green Mountains south of Rutland/Killington?8-14?
Green Mountains north of Rutland/Killington?6-12?
Adirondacks?8-14?
Southern Whites south of Conway-Lincoln line?8-14?
Northern Whites?.6-12?
Potential Storm Totals Come Thursday 4pm.:
Catskills (Snow shuts off Wed afternoon)?.12-20?
Berkshires (Snow shuts off Wed afternoon)?12-20?
Green Mountains south of Rutland/Killington?15-25?
Green Mountains north of Rutland/Killington?24-36?
Adirondacks?15-30?
Southern White Mountains?12-20?
Northern White Mountains?.15-25?
As a final note, I?m not sure I?ve heard of this before, but due to the poor model initializations with regards to pressures as well as much needed data, the government is now sending recon flights into the center of the storm. Recon flights will continue during this developing storm and the government has gone into critical weather mode due to the storm.
I will update tomorrow, before noon, with some new thoughts.
-Scott
Area of Focus: Upstate NY, MA, VT, NH, ME
Storm Time Frame: Monday Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon
Impacts: Moderate to Heavy Snowfall 12am Tues- 12pm Tues, Minor Upslope Snowfall in Catskills and Berkshires (Tues-Wed morning), Major Upslope Snow Event for northern Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and northern White Mountains (Tues afternoon through possibly Thursday afternoon).
Currently there is a very strong low pressure system that just crossed Florida and is now in the Atlantic Ocean just off the coasts of GA and SC. This low is trucking along right now but is also blowing guidance out of the water. All models still predict this thing to be 6-8mb weaker than it currently is. Between tomorrow morning and Tuesday morning, this low will take a track just (and I mean by only miles) off the coast of Cape Hatteras and goes negative with a track straight for the southern New England coast. During this time period, this low will undergo bombogenesis (a 24mb pressure drop in 24 hrs), which is a very rare occurrence. My storm track has the low coming ashore in southern New England in Rhode Island and riding northward from there.
While recent model guidance is still far too weak with the low, I want to discount most of the model runs. However, there is one new fact that models are throwing into the mix. For the past two days it appeared that the low would not be captured by the massive upper level trough dropping through the Great Lakes. Well, now there are hints that this storm will be captured by the upper level trough and could stall much further south than earlier thought. I?m keeping a forecast that does not have a capture until the low is north of New England because since the low is stronger than projected it means there is a much stronger subtropical jet. A stronger subtropical jet implies a faster movement of the low and that is what we are seeing. Models are too weak and up to 4 hours too slow.
What this all means for the north country of the northeast is that we will see a blast of heavy snow Monday night into Tuesday. Then precipitation will taper off to occasional light snow on Tuesday afternoon as the low slows to a crawl just north of New England and a dry slot works its way up. Once the low gets far enough north, the back edge will swing through on Tuesday evening bringing some more snow and starting the upslope snow event that could last till Thursday afternoon in the northern Green Mountains.
I?d like to leave the idea open that the models have this being so close to getting captured by the upper level trough and whenever that happens is when this storm will throw on the breaks. My thinking is this will happen just north of New England but should it cut off in New England or southern New England it could mean that the north country is stuck in a much longer dry-slot as precipitation will be much lighter under the actual low pressure system. Areas to the northwest of the low climatologically get more snowfall especially due to deformation band formation. This would then bring more significant snowfall to the Adirondacks all the way down to West Virginia. I?ll update tomorrow morning if I see this happening.
So, the forecast goes like this:
Snow breaks out from south to north starting in the Catskills by early afternoon and spreading north to the Canadian border by midnight. Snow will fall very heavily at times across most of the northeast on Monday night. I?m looking for a 4-6 hour period of snowfall moving northward through the region with average snowfall rates of 1-2? per hour. It will move through quickly but it will snow hard. Temperatures will be cold enough by far for all snow and if snow growth is maximized this will be amazing powder snow on top of our already deep bases.
Look for widespread 6-12? by Tuesday morning with the most in the south (Catskills) and less by the Canadian border (northern Greens and Whites). Snow will continue through noon on Tuesday before winding down and becoming occasional lighter snow. At this time, heavy snowfall will be coving a lot of western New York from lake enhancement and moist cyclonic flow around the low pressure system. This heavy snowfall will stretch down the Apps into West Virginia. The low will very slow drift NNE and its only a matter of time before the upslope snow hits the Green Mountains. I?ve seen some pretty spectacular orographic snowfall events along the Green Mountain spine and this will not disappoint.
By now, we are out to Tuesday night and its still snowing across western NY, the Adirondacks, and the Appalachian spine down into WV. On a side note, WV higher terrain and west facing slopes could see up to two feet out of this. After this, it is only timing and a wait until the snows fill back in across the Green and White Mountains. I believe the Green Mountain spine will see the most significant upslope snowfall. A 24 hour moist, cyclonic flow out of the NW accompanied by lots of upper level dynamics and vort maxes have me baffled on just how much snow will fall in the northern Green Mountains and northern Adirondacks. Updates will be needed during this long duration event but I will give forecasted amounts from 6pm Monday through 6pm Tuesday and then throw out some guesses on the upslope snowfall.
Snowfall Amounts Monday 6pm ? Tuesday 6pm:
Catskills?.8-14?
Berkshires?8-14?
Green Mountains south of Rutland/Killington?8-14?
Green Mountains north of Rutland/Killington?6-12?
Adirondacks?8-14?
Southern Whites south of Conway-Lincoln line?8-14?
Northern Whites?.6-12?
Potential Storm Totals Come Thursday 4pm.:
Catskills (Snow shuts off Wed afternoon)?.12-20?
Berkshires (Snow shuts off Wed afternoon)?12-20?
Green Mountains south of Rutland/Killington?15-25?
Green Mountains north of Rutland/Killington?24-36?
Adirondacks?15-30?
Southern White Mountains?12-20?
Northern White Mountains?.15-25?
As a final note, I?m not sure I?ve heard of this before, but due to the poor model initializations with regards to pressures as well as much needed data, the government is now sending recon flights into the center of the storm. Recon flights will continue during this developing storm and the government has gone into critical weather mode due to the storm.
I will update tomorrow, before noon, with some new thoughts.
-Scott
