Winter Weather Moving West???

[berkshireskier]

Not sure where to put this and, mods, feel free to move to another thread; but an interesting study on changes in the Winter polar vortex and how that has affected Winter weather in the US. It does explain the lack of any real snow storms in the Northeast for the past few Winters.

Winter Weather Is Moving West: How The Polar Vortex Is Rewriting America's Cold Map

Severe winter storms are moving west: Research explains how changing polar vortex patterns are rewriting America’s cold map

studyfinds.org

 

[Tony Crocker]

My gut reaction is to at articles like this.

The first point is nearly all generic weather articles are focused on where people live, not where they ski.

2024/2025,” demonstrating these new patterns in action across different regions.

I have Northeast ski area snowfall in 2024-25 at 110%, highest since 2016-17. The PNW is in a run of unusually consistent seasons of ski area snowfall close to average. Every season since 2017-18 has been between 89% and 105%, 4 of them above 100% and 4 below 100%. US Northern Rockies are similar overall but more variation: Those same 8 years have 2 seasons over 110% (max 116%) and three under 90% (min 84%).

La Nina and the polar vortex are a chicken and egg situation. But El Nino/La Nina is persistent during our winter months, so thus the only medium term predictor worth anything.

There are decades with more La Ninas than EL Ninos and vice versa. From 2015 through 2024 there were 5 La Ninas and 4 El Ninos (varying strength and 2024-25 was not La Nina despite much premature hype). The prior stretch from 2006-2012 was more lopsided with 5 La Ninas and one El Nino. None of the above observations, nor the article's, have any predictive value for upcoming winters IMHO.