What Happened to the Season Recap Thread?

admin wrote.....how about Bobby, do you think that you know more about why Bobby does something than himself ..... some of the finest minds in the country have been trying for years to answer the question.... WHY.... the jurys still out on the very question admin has posed , but the only real thing that matters is the fact that summers almost done and it's almost time to start living again..... been a miserably hot summer so far
 
As I’ve done before, I’m passing along part of our J&E Productions 2012-2013 Ski Season Summary, which focuses on the Northern Greens. Long story short, it was a subpar season, but not horribly so. Powder outings still comprised ~77% of the total as detailed in the list of reports below, which is essentially that same as it was for the previous couple of seasons. After tabulating that number across three seasons representing above average, below average, and well below average snowfall, it’s interesting how invariant that number has been; more details are included in the Snow Quality section in this post or the full report.

Snowfall: Compared to the snowfall-deficient 2011-2012 Ski Season, the 2012-2013 Ski Season was certainly a step up, but it was still generally below average for snowfall in the mountains of Northern Vermont. It was Bolton Valley that seemed to fare the worst of the northern resorts along the spine of the Green Mountains, perhaps due to their west slope location and this season’s dearth of upslope snow; they reported just 78.5% of their average snowfall. Heading northward, Stowe and Smugg’s fared a bit better at around 85% of average, and Jay Peak reported roughly average snowfall. Down at our house in the Winooski Valley, snowfall was 88.6% of average, so not too shabby by most accounts, but a bit below the mean like some of the local mountains. These past two seasons have actually been the first pair delivering back-to-back below average snowfall in our area since we started keeping track in 2006. Those numbers can be seen in both our Waterbury Winter Weather Summary Table, and the table of Bolton Valley annual snowfall below; this past season’s snowfall is highlighted in blue:

BVsnowfalltable0607-1213.jpg


One item of note this season was the lack of big storms targeting Northern New England – two of the largest storms to hit the Northeast dropped the bulk of their payloads south of Vermont while exiting stage right toward the Atlantic. The first of those, nicknamed “Nemo”, hit in the second week of February, and pounded Southern New England with up to 40 inches of snow. The Green Mountains were on the northern fringe of that storm, but still wound up with 1 to 1.5 feet of snow up and down the spine. The other storm of note was during the March 5th – 8th period, and it dropped another 30 inches on some Southern New England locations, but nothing way up north. There were some periods of snowfall to highlight up in Northern Vermont however. The second half of December alone dropped almost 50” of snow down at our house, significantly more in the mountains, and produced some fantastic skiing for the holidays and into early January. Another period of note was the second half of March into April. Cold temperatures in the latter part of the season helped preserve wintry conditions on the slopes, and we received some decent snowfall as well – the largest storm for the season in my valley records hit the area near the end of March, with 21.3” of snow down at the house, and multiple feet for the mountains. The mountain snowpack finally responded during that late season stretch as well, and that’s detailed a bit more in the snowpack section below. Snowfall continued right into mid April, and the season was capped off with almost two feet of fresh snow on Mt. Mansfield for Memorial Day weekend. That was a sweet way to end the powder skiing for the season.

Snowpack: Aside from the spikes associated with a couple of early season storms, the mountain snowpack was below average going into mid December. That changed quickly though, with the onset of all that new snow during the second half of the month. The above average snowpack achieved during the holidays didn’t actually stay that way during January’s warmth and lack of storms. After consolidation, the snowpack generally trundled along at or below average through February’s continuation of relatively low snowfall. From mid February to mid March, the snowpack sat there essentially stagnant for an entire month; to wit, on February 21st, the snowpack was at 65”, and roughly a month later on March 18th, it was still at 65”, without any notable consolidation of more than a few inches. The late season stretch from mid March to mid April represented a nice rebound for the mountains however, with some quick gains from the big Northern New England March storm getting it above average, and the snow depth staying at least modestly above during the period.

16JUL13A.jpg


Tree Skiing: One metric used as a rough guide for the start of off piste skiing in the Northern Green Mountains is the point at which the snow depth reaches 24” at the Mt. Mansfield stake. For those unfamiliar with how this metric was established, it’s described in some detail in the 2011-2012 ski season summary. With the incorporation of this season’s data, the mean date remains at December 12th ± 19 days, with an average depth at the stake of 25.9 ± 2.7 inches. After the very slow start in 2011-2012, in which the 24” depth wasn’t attained until January 3rd (more than a standard deviation later than the mean), this past season was notably earlier. The plot below shows the date at which 24” was obtained for each season since 1954, with 2011-2012 shown in red, and 2012-2013 shown in green:

1213-24-inchstakeplot.jpg


This past season, the date (December 22nd, Depth=28”, Green Star) was still later than average due in part to the slow first half of December, but unlike last season it was well within the 1 S.D. bars (thin vertical black lines). Note that the 24” mark is being used as an indicator of when the first forays into appropriate off piste/tree skiing terrain typically start in the Central and Northern Greens. In terms of empirical tree skiing observations, personal experience again lends some support to the use of 24” mark this season, as we began venturing into the trees the very next day on December 23rd at Bolton Valley. It should be noted though, that while the 24” mark was attained on December 22nd this season, the 40” mark was attained the very next day on December 23rd. The 40-inch rule (i.e. reaching a depth of 40” at the stake), is used as an indicator of when most off piste/tree skiing around here is ready to go. Although I haven’t looked into the data, this season has got to represent one of the quickest ascents from 24” to 40” – it’s interesting to note however that after rising to 42” of depth on December 23rd and 24th, the snowpack settled back to 36” for a couple of days before rebounding to 45” on the 27th.

Snow Quality: As an monitor of snow quality for the season, the chronological list of our ski outings has once again been compiled, with those days in which we were skiing powder indicated by a P, and those days in which powder skiing wasn’t available indicated by an X. The availability of powder suggests a fairly high level of snow quality, and the absence of powder generally indicates that temperatures rose above freezing at all elevations. Each listing below represents a link to the full report where images and more information from the outing can be obtained. Outings with an X may still be providing decent skiing such as wet snow, corn, etc. (or else skiing was typically avoided) but aside from the spring period, there’s going to be a price to pay in terms of snow quality associated with these episodes when temperatures eventually cool back down. The pattern of snow conditions in the Northern Green Mountains was fairly typical this past winter, with those days lacking powder skiing showing up in three distinct periods: 1) the early season with its usual temperature fluctuations, up through mid December before the weather pattern changed and the cold weather stabilized, 2) a thaw period in mid January, and 3) the period starting in mid March where spring weather began to make inroads. However, with the way the weather patterns this past spring continued to provide cool temperatures and snowfall, powder skiing generally dominated until mid April. Having analyzed the skiing in this way for the past three seasons, a surprising level of consistency is noted, with an overall average of close to four out of five days providing powder, despite notable differences in the demeanor of these recent ski seasons. The 2010-2011 season, which was above average in snowfall, provided powder on 78% of outings, the 2011-2012 season, which was well below average in many ways, revealed the same 78%, and most recently the 2012-2013 season, which was slightly below average in this area, produced a very similar 77% of outings with powder. The percentages don’t take into account differences in the number of outings each season, but with all three seasons falling into the range of 50 to 60 ski outings, differences in the sample sizes aren’t huge. The list of categorized ski outings with links to their full reports follows below:

P Stowe, VT, Sunday 04NOV2012
X Stowe, VT, Sunday 11NOV2012
X Stowe, VT, Thursday 15NOV2012
P Stowe, VT, Friday 30NOV2012
P Stowe, VT, Saturday, 01DEC2012
X Stowe, VT, Saturday, 15DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Friday 21DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 22DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Sunday 23DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Thursday 27DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Friday 28DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 29DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 29DEC2012 (Night)
P Bolton Valley, VT, Sunday 30DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Monday 31DEC2012
P Bolton Valley, VT, Tuesday 01JAN2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 05JAN2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 06JAN2013
X Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 12JAN2013
X Stowe, VT, Sunday 13JAN2013
P Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry, VT, Saturday 19JAN2013
P Stowe Sidecountry & Bruce Trail, VT, Monday 21JAN2013
P Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry, VT, Sunday 27JAN2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Tuesday 29JAN2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 03FEB2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 09FEB2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 10FEB2013
P Stowe, VT, Thursday 14FEB2013
P Bolton Valley & Backcountry, VT, Saturday 16FEB2013
P Bolton Valley & Backcountry, VT, Monday 18FEB2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Thursday, 21FEB2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 23FEB2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 24FEB2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Tuesday 26FEB2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Thursday 28FEB2013
P Bolton Valley & Backcountry, VT, Saturday 02MAR2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 03MAR2013
P Bolton Valley & Backcountry, VT, Saturday 09MAR2013
X Stowe, VT, Sunday 10MAR2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 16MAR2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 17MAR2013
P Stowe, VT, Tuesday 19MAR2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Thursday 21MAR2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Thursday 21MAR2013 (Evening)
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 23MAR2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 24MAR2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Saturday 30MAR2013
X Stowe, VT, Sunday 31MAR2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Tuesday 02APR2013
P Stowe & Mt. Mansfield Chin, VT, Saturday 06APR2013
X Stowe & Mt. Mansfield Chin, VT, Sunday 07APR2013
P Stowe, VT, Saturday 13APR2013
P Bolton Valley, VT, Sunday 14APR2013
X Stowe, VT, Saturday 20APR2013
X Stowe, VT, Sunday 21APR2013
X Bolton Valley, VT, Sunday 28APR2013
X Sugarbush, VT, Saturday 04MAY2013
X Stowe, VT, Sunday, 05MAY2013
X Mt. Washington, NH, Saturday 18MAY2013
P Stowe, VT, Sunday 26MAY2013

Below I’m adding the monthly images used in the detailed month-by-month section of the summary. The detailed monthly text can be found along with some closing thoughts in the full report:

http://jandeproductions.com/2013/10/13/2012-2013-ski-season-summary/

October
12OCT12B.jpg


November
30NOV12D.jpg


December
28DEC12N.jpg


January
01JAN13C.jpg


February
09FEB13A.jpg


March
19MAR13G.jpg


April
07APR13B.jpg


May
26MAY13A.jpg
 
J.Spin":2ef1vit2 said:
I think a lot of it is simply because we get the best snow; when you get it in quantity and quality that’s matching or exceeding many places in the Western U.S., it sort of makes it easy.

:popcorn:
 
I have based my http://50.87.144.177/~bestsnow/vrmthist.htm charts in part upon JSpin's reports. However, he is zealous about seeking out the best conditions, from time to time in the backcountry. Thus they occasionally look better than the overall condition of northern Vermont resort skiing. I have not yet refreshed that chart for 2013, but there are many weekends where JSpin finds powder that I do not give an "A" grade. Most of those are due to my requiring at least one area with 90+% of terrain open, which cuts out most of the early season. I also require 50+% powder/packed powder surfaces, so a day with 3 inches new over what is clearly a hard frozen base from prior weather; I don't believe there's a lot of even packed powder skiing on conventional eastern trails in that scenario even though JSpin is getting some soft turns in the trees or backcountry.

Nonetheless reading reports for over a decade has only reinforced my view that Vermont north of I-89 has the best snow of the Northeast more often than not. Geoff took me to task a couple of years ago for some high grades on March/April weekends when Killington was nearly all refrozen hardpack. I reread all of JSpin's reports from that timeframe and concluded my grades were correct for northern Vermont.
 
Tony Crocker":3ukc19gk said:
I have based my http://50.87.144.177/~bestsnow/vrmthist.htm charts in part upon JSpin's reports. However, he is zealous about seeking out the best conditions, from time to time in the backcountry. Thus they occasionally look better than the overall condition of northern Vermont resort skiing. I have not yet refreshed that chart for 2013, but there are many weekends where JSpin finds powder that I do not give an "A" grade. Most of those are due to my requiring at least one area with 90+% of terrain open, which cuts out most of the early season. I also require 50+% powder/packed powder surfaces, so a day with 3 inches new over what is clearly a hard frozen base from prior weather; I don't believe there's a lot of even packed powder skiing on conventional eastern trails in that scenario even though JSpin is getting some soft turns in the trees or backcountry.
I think Tony’s approach is a very reasonable way to get an objective assessment of what the typical resort visitor is going to encounter with respect to lift-served skiing; realistically, since avalanche control issues are minimal in bounds at resorts in the Northeast, if a ski area is keeping significant amounts of terrain closed, it’s most likely due to poor coverage or overly firm surfaces. Either of those issues will detract from the overall ski experience and bring it below an “A”. Tony’s charts may not always reflect the quality of conditions that “in the know” locals or sidecountry/backcountry folks are skiing, but even for them, I think it can serve as at least a baseline level of quality. For a knowledgeable local, if they see a “B” on Tony’s chart, they can probably assume B conditions at a minimum, but likely something better because of what they know about the recent weather, skier traffic, freezing levels, etc.
 
coldsmoke":18mtsl7q said:
J.Spin":18mtsl7q said:
I think a lot of it is simply because we get the best snow; when you get it in quantity and quality that’s matching or exceeding many places in the Western U.S., it sort of makes it easy.

:popcorn:
Pulling up a seat next to you with my own box of :popcorn: and a beverage.
 
MarcC":1725b7ic said:
Pulling up a seat next to you with my own box of :popcorn: and a beverage.
Ski conditions should be viewed as a distribution range. Most of us put the powder days in the upper range of that distribution. Since those are mostly a function of snowfall the upper reaches of the distribution range in northern Vermont have similar frequency (10-15%) to the upper range in western areas that get similar snowfall in the 300 inch range. It's the mid and lower ends of the distribution range where the East falls short of most western areas. It is almost unheard of for western areas once fully covered to lose terrain mid-season, yet it occurs routinely in the East after rain and thaw events. The worst third of northern Vermont's distribution is probably comparable to the worst 5% at well preserved western areas in Utah and Colorado. A mid-range scenario of 3 days to a week since the last snowfall is typically packed powder in most western resorts through February, in many through March and a few into April. In the East you're usually on a hardpack snowmaking subsurface after a few days with no snow and I've knocked the grade down to a "B."
 
As always, good assessment of the snow conditions and weather for Northern Vermont . For north east skiing , would agree probably the best place to camp out waiting for powder days as you have to be there when it happens and chances are it will happen more often than not in this area but don't wait ( speaking from our own experience of over 30 years of driving down just ahead of a storm ) as the rain /snow cycles are brutal .
 
No more trip reports -- looks like everyone's thrown in the towel... I might as well post the new season recap thread.
:p
 
I know at least Bobby Danger and Amy are still skiing, ;). Cheater Baldy was skiing pretty well when I saw them on Saturday.
 
Most weather forecasters are calling for an ongoing rapid warmup. However, I expect that last Saturday was still majority winter conditions in LCC, so I'm surprised to have seen no TR's.

The upcoming weekend might be difficult, but the odds are high LCC has more powder days coming over the next month. My season here in CA may end earlier than normal but I still expect at least one May trip.
 
BobMc":1dk36sq5 said:
I know at least Bobby Danger and Amy are still skiing, ;). Cheater Baldy was skiing pretty well when I saw them on Saturday.

James goes fishing and lands a big one.

gone%20fishing%208-8-08%20by%20EHaskell.jpg


Tony Crocker":1dk36sq5 said:
I expect that last Saturday was still majority winter conditions in LCC, so I'm surprised to have seen no TR's.

It's coming. I was out both Saturday and Sunday, and Sunday absolutely rocked.
 
Admin":175ozqmd said:
James goes fishing and lands a big one.

I'm pretty familiar with the trolling technique of James, ;). I only saw them with one other person, were you eating high on the hog at the Rustler at that time? Oh, and I said hi this time, lol.
 
BobMc":2pfw7x2o said:
I only saw them with one other person, were you eating high on the hog at the Rustler at that time? Oh, and I said hi this time, lol.

Sorry that I missed meeting you. On Saturday I bagged out early because I was uninspired and had some other stuff to attend to, although I understand that it got better in the afternoon. On Sunday I went bell to bell -- most of the a.m. at Alta, and the rest of the day at the Bird until a last run at 4:20 back at Alta. Sunday was just one of those days that gets better and better as the day wears on.
 
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