NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby jamesdeluxe » Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:10 am

flyover wrote:If it would raise her standing within the Republican Party, and it were within her power, Kristi Noem would make stopping at stop signs, or stopping in the presence of a school bus with its lights flashing, optional.

I'd argue that Americans in general are uncomfortable with government overreach; however, there's a point where libertarianism becomes formalized selfishness. During recent flights, I appreciated that everyone kept their masks on even though it's no fun to wear those things for four straight hours.
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:46 am

Tony Crocker wrote:Number of states over 3,000 new cases in past 1/2 month per million and worst state on earlier dates:
11/15: 41 states, North Dakota 24,874
10/31: 31 states, North Dakota 17,583
10/03: 17 states, North Dakota 8,413
9/01: 9 states, North Dakota 4,425
7/31: 17 states, Florida 8,323; FYI this was California's high point at 3,935
6/30: 5 states, Arizona 5,840


For 11/30: 49 states (out of 52 including DC and PR), North Dakota 20,715
The 3 exceptions are Maine 2,102, Vermont 2,105 and Hawaii 933. I'll hazard a guess those are record highs for Maine and Vermont.

California at 4,881 and 6.2% positivity rate now exceeds its summer peak of 3,935, ranks #40.
Florida at 5,474 and 8.1% positivity rate is below its summer peak of 8,323, ranks #37.
New Jersey at 6,802 and 8.2% positivity rate ranks #30.
Colorado at 12,075 and 23.0% positivity rate ranks #14.
Utah at 13,309 and 13.5% positivity rate ranks #10.
Minnesota at 17,170 and 11.2% positivity rate ranks #4.
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Marc_C » Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:37 am

Tony Crocker wrote:
Tony Crocker wrote:Number of states over 3,000 new cases in past 1/2 month per million and worst state on earlier dates:
11/15: 41 states, North Dakota 24,874
10/31: 31 states, North Dakota 17,583
10/03: 17 states, North Dakota 8,413
9/01: 9 states, North Dakota 4,425
7/31: 17 states, Florida 8,323; FYI this was California's high point at 3,935
6/30: 5 states, Arizona 5,840


For 11/30: 49 states (out of 52 including DC and PR), North Dakota 20,715
The 3 exceptions are Maine 2,102, Vermont 2,105 and Hawaii 933. I'll hazard a guess those are record highs for Maine and Vermont.

California at 4,881 and 6.2% positivity rate now exceeds its summer peak of 3,935, ranks #40.
Florida at 5,474 and 8.1% positivity rate is below its summer peak of 8,323, ranks #37.
New Jersey at 6,802 and 8.2% positivity rate ranks #30.
Colorado at 12,075 and 23.0% positivity rate ranks #14.
Utah at 13,309 and 13.5% positivity rate ranks #10.
Minnesota at 17,170 and 11.2% positivity rate ranks #4.


What point are you trying to make?
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:18 pm

On 11/15 I listed all states; this time just the home states of the regular users here.

The current surge is far beyond those of spring and summer, aside from the Northeast in spring, which was probably more intense but case count data was woefully inadequate.

Overall the recent surge is widespread but much worse in colder states with more people indoors. Not so different than when June heat drove Arizonans and Floridians indoors.

The states with lax governors do worse, but that's secondary to the inside vs. outside factor IMHO. See Minnesota and Illinois as examples.
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:39 am

Tony Crocker wrote:Number of states over 3,000 new cases in past 1/2 month per million and worst state on earlier dates:
11/30: 49 states, North Dakota 20,715
11/15: 41 states, North Dakota 24,874
10/31: 31 states, North Dakota 17,583
10/03: 17 states, North Dakota 8,413
9/01: 9 states, North Dakota 4,425
7/31: 17 states, Florida 8,323; FYI this was California's high point at 3,935
6/30: 5 states, Arizona 5,840


For 12/16: 50 states (out of 52 including DC and PR), Rhode Island 20,090
The exceptions are Vermont 2,921 and Hawaii 1,158.

Florida at 7,037 and 9.1% positivity rate is still below its summer peak of 8,323. Florida ranking #44 with its anything-goes governor, is surely due to being a comfortable outdoor state in December.
New Jersey at 8,843 and 8.5% positivity rate ranks #37.
California at 11,021 and 10.8% positivity rate is now worse than any state was in summer, ranks #26.
Colorado at 11,220 and 27.2% positivity rate ranks #24.
Minnesota at 12,624 and 9.5% positivity rate ranks #15.
Utah at 13,717 and 13.3% positivity rate ranks #5.
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:27 pm

I updated the bimonthly coronavirus spreadsheet. For the past few weeks we get nonstop stories about how bad it is here in L.A. County. Here are two week new case counts per million for Florida, L.A. County, Colorado. Rank is shown for any number over 3,000 and where LA County (population 10 million) would rank if it were a state:
Summer peak 7/31: FL(#1) 8,323, LA(#12) 4,631, CO 1,584
9/1: FL 2,507, LA 2,092, CO 797
10/3: FL 1,868, LA 1,630, CO 1,634
10/17: FL 1,576, LA 1,291, CO 1,626
10/31: FL 2,519, LA 2,135, CO(#23) 4,416
October was the month the Upper Midwest exploded. 4 states were over 10,000 on 10/31 for the first time, though I'm sure Northeastern states were far over that in the spring but unreported due to lack of testing.

11/15: FL 3,378(#40), LA 2,882, CO(#16) 9,010.
11 states were over 10,000 on 11/15 and Colorado seems to have caught the Midwest spike. Nothing out of the ordinary is happening in Florida or California yet, and any socializing, celebrating related to the Lakers win 10/11 and the Dodgers win 10/27 has had little effect on LA's numbers.

11/30: FL 5,471(#37), LA 5,906(#34), CO(#14) 12,075.
22 states are over 10,000 and this is the peak for Colorado. LA has doubled in the past two weeks and is now over its summer peak but still below average for the USA. Did anything unusual happen in the first half of November? Perhaps the election affected some states, but California has had a high level of mail-in voting for decades, so I don't think that's a factor here at all.

12/16: FL 7,037(#44), LA 14,734(#4), CO(#24) 11,020.
32 states are over 10,000, including California 11,021(#26) in total. LA County has about 1/4 of the state population. This is the Thanksgiving spike, though there are many states like Colorado that were already high and didn't go higher.

12/31: FL 7,558(#32), LA 21,150(#1), CO(#39) 6,507.
14 states are over 10,000 including California 15,542(#2) in total. Florida and Colorado are better than most places but still about as bad as the worst states during the summer peak. USA overall is 9,377, down a little from the 10,211 peak two weeks earlier.

Stats in format of prior reports:
Minnesota at 5,132 and 5.2% positivity rate ranks #46.
Colorado at 6,507 and 24.8% positivity rate ranks #39. I think there's a problem with the way tests in Colorado are being reported to Worldometers.
New Jersey at 7,147 and 7.7% positivity rate ranks #34.
Florida at 7,558 and 10.4% positivity rate ranks #32.
Utah at 10.643 and 12.3% positivity rate ranks #11.
California at 15,542 and 12.9% positivity rate ranks #2.
Tennessee is #1 with 15,805 and 22.0% positivity rate.

With all the news reports I still don't see a good explanation for LA County's current situation. LA leads US metro areas in percent of overcrowded housing (11% vs. 6% in NY and SF). I knew about that problem in March and yet nothing out of the ordinary happened here until maybe 6 weeks ago. And the rest of the state is in the same pattern. LA's numbers run 25-35% over the statewide average in both high and low periods, and even now 3 other counties (Riverside, San Bernardino and Fresno) are higher than LA.
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:27 pm

In other unhappy news Ontario has become the first jurisdiction in North America to close ski areas (until Jan. 23) in 2020-21. This will be interesting for Patrick in Ottawa, as some of his local areas are in Ontario but others are in Quebec.
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Marc_C » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:21 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:Utah at 10.643 and 12.3% positivity rate ranks #11.

Your numbers are way off.
From KSL CV dashboard:
The rolling seven-day average number of positive cases per day is now at 2,288 according to the health department. The positive test rate per day for that time period is now 25.6%.

https://www.ksl.com/article/50075924/utah-reports-record-4672-new-covid-19-cases-13-more-deaths-on-new-years-eve
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:21 pm

My numbers are per capita, which is the only way you can compare one state/region to another. Yours are raw totals. 2,288 / 2.65M Utah population x 15 days = 12,950, not so far off. KSL says Utah's numbers are rising so the more recent 7-day average should exceed a 15-day cumulative.
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Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:12 pm

I updated the bimonthly coronavirus spreadsheet. USA overall is a record high 11,365 new cases per million over the last two weeks.

Stats in format of prior reports:
Minnesota at 5,400 and 5.4% positivity rate ranks #45.
Colorado at 6,654 and 26.6% positivity rate ranks #41. Tests in Colorado being reported to Worldometers are consistently off. JHU has Colorado positivity in single digits in January.
Florida at 11,265 and 14.2% positivity rate ranks #22, now above summer peak.
New Jersey at 15,000 and 14.4% positivity rate ranks #6.
Utah at 15,023 and 13.5% positivity rate ranks #5.
California at 16,104 and 13.2% positivity rate ranks #2.
Arizona is #1 with 18,956 and 22.0% positivity rate.

L.A. County is at 21,831. 26 states are over 10,000. Vermont is at record high 3,940 with 2.5% positivity. 3,940 would have been the 3rd highest state on 9/1/20 but it's the second lowest state now.
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Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Marc_C » Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:05 pm

How are you coming up with the positivity numbers? Utah Health Department gave a 7-day rolling average rate of 26% yesterday, down from 32% last week. Hardly 13.5%.
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby EMSC » Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:03 am

Tony Crocker wrote:Tests in Colorado being reported to Worldometers are consistently off. JHU has Colorado positivity in single digits in January.


your Worldometers number seems wildly off for Colorado. Last I looked it was just over or even just under 5% a week or so ago (I don't ever go look at it, but reading other stuff occasionally bump into such useless stats).
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:01 pm

For both per capitia cases and per capita tests, I'm subtracting the previous (half a month) spreadsheet's cumulative total from the current sheet's total. Then I divide the new cases by the new tests. Irregular reporting of cases or tests will cause a problem, but it seems to be worse for tests.

JHU rolling average for Utah positivity has been in the 15-20% range over the past two months but with a recent bump up to 21.3%. Worldometers has been steady in the 13% range over the same two months.

JHU rolling average for Colorado positivity over 10% 1-2 months ago but under 10% in the past month. Worldometers has been steady in the 20+% range over the same two months.

The Worldometers per capita data is convenient to download in the same format at country, state and in some cases county levels. I started downloading in May but didn't start with the comparisons of prior and current sheets until November.

But I think the JHU site is the best source to track positivity by state.
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Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Marc_C » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:58 pm

Tony Crocker wrote:JHU rolling average for Utah positivity has been in the 15-20% range over the past two months but with a recent bump up to 21.3%. Worldometers has been steady in the 13% range over the same two months.

The last time the Utah daily positivity rate was below 20% was late October 2020. A claim of a 7-day rolling average of 15%-20% over the past two months is incorrect.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/scoreboard/
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Re: NASJA Zoom meeting re: winter ops during pandemic

Postby Tony Crocker » Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:40 pm

For the period Jan. 16 - Jan. 30 USA overall had 7,869 new cases per million.
Stats by state:
Minnesota at 3,060 ranked #49.
Colorado at 4,487 ranked #31.
Florida at 7,706 ranked #20.
Utah at 7,900 rankrf #17.
New Jersey at 8,608 rate ranked #16.
California at 9,954 ranked #4.
Arizona was #1 with 13,078.
L.A. County was 13,525. 3 states were over 10,000. Vermont was at 3,360. 3 states were under 3,000, Hawaii, Oregon and North Dakota(!).

For the period Jan. 31 - Feb. 14 USA overall had 4,814 new cases per million.
Stats by state:
Minnesota is at 2,260.
Colorado at 3,268 ranks #34.
California at 4,426 ranks #20.
Utah at 4,947 ranks #17.
Florida at 5,298 ranks #14.
New Jersey at 6,017 ranks #10.
South Carolina is #1 with 9,228.
L.A. County was 5,528. 38 states were over 3,000. The last time fewer states were over 3,000 was at 10/31.

I'm not quoting Worldometer calculated positivity rates since they are suspicious. But it's easy to follow that on the JHU site I linked in my previous posts.

I got my second Moderna vaccine today and hope to resume the ski road trip by the end of this week.
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Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
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