Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

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Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

Postby mammothsnowman » Fri Oct 25, 2013 5:39 pm

Here is Weather Guys Mammoth Forecast for the Winter Season.
http://mammothsnowman.com/mammoth-mount ... alifornia/

out....
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Location: Mammoth Mountain or Mt Waterman

Re: Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

Postby Tony Crocker » Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:02 pm

Official 2013-2014 Winter Outlook | Mammoth Mountain, California wrote:Monthly Forecast Totals:
November = 70” December = 60” January = 45” February = 25” March = 115” April = 40” November – April = 375”

The specificity of this kind of forecast is really sticking one's neck out, especially for a region with volatility as high as the Sierra. Even though only February and March are predicted to deviate from average significantly, my bet is that at least 4 of those monthly predictions will be off by a lot. I don't suppose we have this guy's forecasts for the past 3 seasons????? That's why I'm copying this one. I'd be mildly surprised if the link above is still around next April/May.

Mammoth 45 year averages:
Nov 42
Dec 68
Jan 72
Feb 72
Mar 61
Apr 34
May 11
Total 360 inches
Standard deviations by month are about 2/3 of the averages.
Season standard deviation is 132 inches
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Re: Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

Postby gpaulski » Sat Oct 26, 2013 3:30 pm

This guy is Mr. Crock!!!
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Re: Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

Postby Tony Crocker » Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:26 pm

Official 2013-2014 Winter Outlook | Mammoth Mountain, California wrote:Monthly Forecast Totals:
November = 70” December = 60” January = 45” February = 25” March = 115” April = 40” November – April = 375”

Not sure how I stumbled on this so much later, but here are the actuals for that very bad season:
November = 12.5” December = 18” January = 13.5” February = 50.5” March = 45” April = 43” November – April = 182.5”
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Hopefully a lesson was learned about making such specific weather predictions far in advance or placing any credibility whatsoever in them. Something to keep in mind as we soon get into the silly season of winter weather forecasts.
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
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Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 10207
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California

Re: Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

Postby EMSC » Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:08 am

But he pretty much nailed the April snowfall forecast!

(LOL)

There have already been 'prognostications' in the Denver paper about how in a neutral year (non-Nino or Nina) Colorado should expect slightly below average snowfall... And that from supposed actual meteorology types, not even the Farmer's almanac level of guessing.

In reality I do believe there is the least correlation of snowfall to 'neutral' years in Colo so we should expect to have no idea how it will shape up until we are well into the winter. For the next week or two, temps above average is all that seems reasonable to predict...
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Re: Mammoth Mountain 2013-14 Winter Outlook

Postby Tony Crocker » Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:50 am

I haven't posted this in awhile:
SnowTrend19.png


El Nino/La Nina is a non factor for the two regions covering Colorado areas. Even at the individual area level only Steamboat (favored by La Nina) and Taos (favored by El Nino) show any meaningful impact.

For I-70 Colorado, neutral years included two of the best (1983-84 and 1995-96) and two of the worst (1976-77 and 1980-81).
http://bestsnow.net
Ski Records
Season length: 21 months, Nov. 29, 2010 - July 2, 2012
Days in one year: 80 from Nov. 29, 2010 - Nov. 17, 2011
Season vertical: 1,610K in 2016-17
Season powder: 291K in 2011-12
User avatar
Tony Crocker
 
Posts: 10207
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:37 am
Location: Avatar: Charlotte Bay, Antarctica 2011
Location: Glendale, California


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