Tony Crocker":3ndqpq9d said:Any prediction of "below by 50%" is really going out on a limb. That's a 1-in-30 year prediction, almost certainly going to be wrong. On the other end, 90+% of ski areas have NEVER had a 200% season. Consistent places like Alta and Targhee have never exceeded 150%.
Good point. Once the average gets over 100 inches, 200% seasons are very rare. Mt. Baldy averages about 175 and its max seasons (the 2 huge El Ninos in 1983 and 1998) were about 350. Arizona Snowbowl average 244 max 459 in 2004-05 but rumored over 500 in 1972-73 when it was open July 4. The most volatile area in the Sierra is Mt. Rose, average 353 max 600 in 1994-95. Other regions in North America are less volatile than the Sierra. Although Mt. Washington NH volatility as measured by standard deviation is not that large, it had 565 inches in 1968-69 despite a 43-year average of only 302. The worldwide prize in this category goes to Portillo, which averages 254 but had 729 in 1972, assisted by a fairly strong El Nino.about the only place that 200% may verify is some downstate location going from 8" to 16" for the year
berkshireskier":skhuqrm6 said:Thanks for the chart, Tony. There does seem to be a fair amount of variability over the five time periods you illustrate (especially if you include that one outlier year in the Northeast).(...) Furthermore, the Northeast has not really had any huge snow winters during these five years.
Amen.I think these long range forecasts are, for the most part, worthless.
Actually, this is the one part of the forecast that tends to be quite reliable. El Nino tends to persist month to month, and is most persistent from July to January. Of the 6 seasons with MEI in its current range in AUG/SEP, 5 of them stayed near that level through February. The problem is that mild El Ninos are not a good snow predictor compared to strong El Ninos or even mild La Ninas.Plus, the El Nino pattern can change over time, throwing the entire rationale off course.
](*,) I know the second half of that season was great from the powderhounds' perspective, but to call the overall season "amazing" when the first half of it was as bad as 1979-80, no way. Ask the NE resort operators what they thought of that year. Skier visits were down vs. long term average, and with Christmas totally sucking revenues were probably worse. It has to be an axiom of skiing that if all your snow is going to be in half the season, you're better off if it's the front half. Late season with challenging surface conditions (Patrick is as good at enjoying these as anyone) beats the hell out of early season with inadequate natural cover and only WROD's to ski.2007 was an amazing year.
While it may have been lousy from an operator's perspective, that really doesn't correlate that well to whether it was a good snow or powder skiing year. You can have consistent cold temps in the early season allowing for expansion of terrain coverage by X-Mas and MLK but without great natural snow. 2006-2007 was just the opposite. There were decent snowfalls mid-month just prior to the X-Mas holiday period, allowing for a brief window of enjoyable conditions. Then the rains came almost on cue with X-Mas but by the time everyone got fed up with it and left, the snows began to fall again towards the end of the week, culminating with a surprise 8-10" hit on 12/31 - was supposed to be 1-3" at best. SB operated early season at Mt. Ellen that year, and I vividly recall poaching Lookin Good early in the morning and then, as the day wore on, mid-mountain runs like Hammerheard, Tumbler, Encore and even Cliffs as the snow got deeper. By the very end of the day, patrol even opened Black Diamond, which generally requires a good bit of snow due to the rocks. It was one of my top 4-5 days of the year.Tony Crocker":6jriyjjt said:I know the second half of that season was great from the powderhounds' perspective, but to call the overall season "amazing" when the first half of it was as bad as 1979-80, no way. Ask the NE resort operators what they thought of that year. Skier visits were down vs. long term average, and with Christmas totally sucking revenues were probably worse. It has to be an axiom of skiing that if all your snow is going to be in half the season, you're better off if it's the front half. Late season with challenging surface conditions (Patrick is as good at enjoying these as anyone) beats the hell out of early season with inadequate natural cover and only WROD's to ski.
Tony Crocker":gkz5hzpr said:](*,) I know the second half of that season was great from the powderhounds' perspective, but to call the overall season "amazing" when the first half of it was as bad as 1979-80, no way..2007 was an amazing year.
Tony Crocker":gkz5hzpr said:Ask the NE resort operators what they thought of that year. Skier visits were down vs. long term average, and with Christmas totally sucking revenues were probably worse.
Tony Crocker":gkz5hzpr said:It has to be an axiom of skiing that if all your snow is going to be in half the season, you're better off if it's the front half.
I don't expect lift-served loads like myself to ski a northeast spring like that ever again. A place like Sugarbush is far enough to the north that a decent mid-April dump is within the realm of possibility, but it's pretty shocking when the snow goes all the way down to Belleayre in the Catskills.Patrick":1kl1crmp said:Amazing? Definitely. River and other Eastern powderhounds will all say the same thing. Mike mentioned the constant non-freeze/thaw cycles for at least 6 weeks. Snow accumulation over the season might be close to the average, however these accumulation weren't added 1-2 inch at a time, but through a couple big dumps.