Western Weather 2015-16

[Admin]

Finally, snow in the Salt Lake Valley! About 3" today here in Cottonwood Heights, 9" so far mid-mountain at Alta, should be a few more there before it's all said and done.

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n9-kVdbiPQ[/video]

(HD available by clicking on the YouTube logo.)

 

[q]

Discovery cam looking good again today!

 

[EMSC]

Definitely liking snow stake images like this one...

 

[EMSC]

Unfortunately, it looks like Colorado has it's typical snowpack this year..... Unstable. at least one rescue last weekend near Breck.

http://www.summitdaily.com/news/192...y-rescuers-responded-to-three-avalanches-this

 

[Admin]

Unfortunately, it looks like Colorado has it's typical snowpack this year..... Unstable. at least one rescue last weekend near Breck.

http://www.summitdaily.com/news/192...y-rescuers-responded-to-three-avalanches-this

Utah's bottom 4" is a weak layer right now, but it's stabilizing a bit ahead of a storm forecast for Thanksgiving.

 

[Admin]

Three freakin' inches?! This Thanksgiving storm looks like a real bust right now.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Three freakin' inches?! This Thanksgiving storm looks like a real bust right now.

This seems to be the November pattern for Utah, possibly only western region below average so far. Of course we all know below average in LCC would be above average in many places.

 

[Admin]

Final tally was 6". But still...

 

[Tony Crocker]

Since this thread is titled Western Weather 2015-16, I figure the upcoming week in the Pacific Northwest is newsworthy. For some local detail: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/12/s ... ahead.html

With little to talk about in Utah in the near term, the PNW forecast is also the main focus of Evan Thayer's OpenSnow blog today: http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/utah/post/4456

From the Cliff Mass maps it looks like the bounty of snow will eventually extend well into interior British Columbia and then down through Oregon into far northern California. The Sierra looks borderline, we'll have to wait and see on that.

 

[Admin]

Yes, that is an incredibly impressive series of events coming into the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, however, the rain / snow line is expected to be extremely high.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Unfortunately, however, the rain / snow line is expected to be extremely high.

By PNW standards, and certainly by last year's standards, not really. Per Larry Schick rain/snow line is expected to be between 3,500 and 4,500 most of the time. So the 95 inch prediction for Whistler's snow plot at 5,400 doesn't surprise me. I would expect nearly all snow in interior BC/interior NW ski areas. Oregon areas have been like Utah on November; the center of storms have gone north or south of them. These storms should ultimately get Oregon going. The rain/snow mix will likely be mainly in the Washington Cascade areas.

 

[flyover]

Unfortunately, however, the rain / snow line is expected to be extremely high.

By PNW standards, and certainly by last year's standards, not really. Per Larry Schick rain/snow line is expected to be between 3,500 and 4,500 most of the time. So the 95 inch prediction for Whistler's snow plot at 5,400 doesn't surprise me. I would expect nearly all snow in interior BC/interior NW ski areas. Oregon areas have been like Utah on November; the center of storms have gone north or south of them. These storms should ultimately get Oregon going. The rain/snow mix will likely be mainly in the Washington Cascade areas.

Hmmmm…

From today’s avalanche.ca forecast for BC (http://www.avalanche.ca/weather):

A persistent and strong Pacific jet stream will bring a series of major storms to BC for the next week. Freezing levels in the mountains will fluctuate between about 1000 and 2000 metres with each system, bringing alternating rain and heavy snow through a range of elevations. Upper alpine snowfalls will be enormous across the South Coast regions and very large in the Columbia Cariboo regions. These fast-moving and dynamic storms will present many challenges, especially around timing and liquid-water-equivalent precipitation amounts, especially at elevations below 2000 metres where changes in phase between snow and rain will make reliable predictions of snowfall nearly impossible.

Outlook: No end in sight...and potential for horribly high freezing levels by mid-week.

(emphasis added)

 

[Tony Crocker]

Larry Schick is still calling for max rain/snow line at 5,500 feet Saturday and Tuesday, 4,500 in the interim, and falling to 3,000 or lower starting next Wednesday.

Larry has always said forecasting the rain/snow line is the most challenging part of being a PNW weather forecaster, so no surprise there are some divergent opinions.

 

[Admin]

I had to laugh at the following excerpt from this morning's avalanche report:

Skies are clearing in the wake of the cold front and mountain temperatures sit in the mid-teens. Winds are in check and are generally from the west and northwest at less than 15mph. One might look around and feel short-changed by the storm, but careful analysis of the instrumentation data shows that at around 8pm or so last night we did indeed pick up .01" of precipitation.

 

[Admin]

I'm liking what I'm seeing for later this week in Utah:

http://www.wasatchsnowforecast.com/2015/12/05/real-winter-to-arrive/[/url]":371l4x3q]Right now it looks like the best snow will start later in the day on Thursday and continue through much of Friday. Plenty of decent moisture and cold air for substantial snowfall to be possible. Friday and Saturday could both be good powder days!

The other piece of good news is that for once, this does not look to be a “one-and-done” storm with perhaps more significant snowfall possible early next week as another system drops into the western CONUS trough.

http://www.wasatchsnowforecast.com/2015/12/05/real-winter-to-arrive/[/url]":371l4x3q]

http://www.wasatchsnowforecast.com/2015/12/05/real-winter-to-arrive/[/url]":371l4x3q]Of course, it’s important to remember that we are still 5+ days away from the start of this event. Yes, it does have potential, and I am communicating what is currently being projected, but as always, this is subject to change. As mentioned earlier, this is a more amplified pattern which means that if it amplifies too much, the storms could drop to our west and then south a la the November systems. After the luck we’ve had so far this year (and last year), I’m keeping my emotions in check at this point.

Still, this isn’t just a one-and-done and models indicate more chances for snow could continue through the long-range. I think even in a worst case scenario, we still get a healthy dose of winter in Utah.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Around 3 feet across the board in the PNW from the first wave of storms. The next wave is the unpleasant one that will rain to the top of the Washington Cascades, halfway up Bachelor and to 5,500 at Whistler. The final set of storms starting Wednesday are expected to total 2-3 feet of snow with a very low rain/snow line.

I'm becoming more confident in the Sierra getting serious dumps at the end of this week as I will likely be headed to NY soon thereafter. :lol:

 

[Admin]

Ok, it's absolutely puking this morning here in Cottonwood Heights, Utah. We've picked up about 3" so far here and 5" on the mountain. We're under a Winter Storm Warning in the valley with a forecast of 6-12" and possibly more here on the bench. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see greater than 2 feet at the mountain by the time it's done tomorrow night.

 

[EMSC]

Be careful out there everyone....

Avalanche watch issued for Colorado mountains as snowstorm looms
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_29295082/avalanche-watch-issued-colorado-mountains-snowstorm-looms

 

[Admin]

Here are this week's storm totals thus far courtesy Wasatch Snow Forecast, with another 6-12" expected in the Cottonwoods today:

Holy cow, I'll take it! As you can see, this was a weird one in some ways as the Park City resorts, Snowbasin and Sundance all exceeded LCC this time. BCC, though, is the huge winner thus far. Everybody got the goods! (except way down south at Brian Head)

The snowfall is absolutely raging at my house right now.

 

[Marc_C]

From today's UAC avi report with the most interesting item bolded:

Weather

We'll have mostly sunny skies, temps struggling into the single digits, and light to moderate northeast winds. Tomorrow also looks beautiful with slightly warmer temps and lighter easterly winds. A disorganized storm moves in from the northwest late Monday that should provide a few more inches of snow. The Dreaded January Ridge (DJR) begins to build on Thursday.