Northeastern U.S. Weather & Conditions

I just posted a new progress report last night. Trail counts overall are up a little bit from last week. Tremblant is up a lot, from 25%to 80%.
Yes I can attest to this. I arrived on Dec 20, at that time I think they had 46 runs and no natural snow terrain due to rain the day before. Terrain progressively opened each day, including all natural snow terrain, and by Dec 23, they had more than 90 runs open. Forecast for tomorrow looks iffy. If they can avoid rain, they should be 100% open shortly.
 
A forecast for Tug Hill slednecks but @Harvey's favorite McCauley (near Old Forge) will do well too:

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A forecast for Tug Hill slednecks but @Harvey's favorite McCauley (near Old Forge) will do well too:

Looks good! However, do the Lake Effect Snow Bands ever make it to any parts of the Adirondack foothills and/or mountains? The big ski areas mostly sit on the East side (or lee side) of the Adirondack Mountain range (West MT, Gore, Whiteface), so my sense is that they do not get much lake effect snow per se. However, they can orographic lift snowfall from N/NW winds from Cold Fronts ("Arctic Vortex":D;)), Alberta Clippers, etc. Hence, Patrick skis Whiteface in October some years.

This seems to be the case for Platekill as well. They do not really get Lake Effect snow from the NW. There are plenty of decent-sized hills in front of them. However, they might get heavier wraparound snowfall after a Nor'easter due to orographic lift and a NW flow. The nearby ski areas of Bobcat and Scotch Valley/Deer Run were never really known as Lake Effect ski resorts. Also, they are really far from Lake Ontario vs. a McCauley.

I decided to get more accurate data for this high-level map regarding New York, Lake Effect snowfall, and Catskill snowfall.

Harvey's Maps makes a bit of a case, but it's not granular enough:

1768853855102.png



The Source Data for the NYSkiBlog map is much more revealing, especially for the Catskills. There is a lot of elevation-related (colder temps, orographic lift) influencing snowfall.
1768853965765.png


Yellow - Lake enhanced snowfall
Red - Elevation-enhanced orographic snowfall. Slide Mountain at 4180 ft is taller than anything in Vermont besides Mt. Mansfield/Killington by only 50-200ft.
1768854759564.png


I think Platekill is too far from Lake Ontario, and receives orographic lift snowfall on the backside of Nor-Easters when winds shift to Northwestlies. The same as European Retour d'Est storms, when winds shift to Easterlies.

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And the data does not support Platekill being a Lake Effect area. The real data from NY Ski Blog indicate 114 inches of annual snowfall, very similar to other Catskill resorts. Nothing special, very average.


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I agree with ChrisC's post. The last time we had this discussion I grazed upstate NY on Google Earth. The Catskills are significant mountains by Northeast standards, topping out at 3,500 feet. There is nothing to the west of them as high as 2,000, so they will get orographic uplift precipitation from any typical west-to-east weather system. And since Plattekill is on the NW edge of the Catskills I'd expect a little more snow there than at the other places.
 
The Catskills are significant mountains by Northeast standards, topping out at 3,500 feet.

They are almost as high as Vermont's Green Mountains. Issue: all the high 4,000 peaks are in the Catskill Forest Preserve, preventing any development (i.e., New York City drinking water reservoirs).

Highest Peaks: Catskills vs Vermont

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I think Platekill is too far from Lake Ontario, and receives orographic lift snowfall on the backside of Nor-Easters when winds shift to Northwestlies.
I could've sworn that we discussed this recently but I can't find the post. As I recall, the consensus of local bean counters was that despite the distance from Lake Ontario; yes, Plattekill gets LE to an extent.
 
I could've sworn that we discussed this recently but I can't find the post. As I recall, the consensus of local bean counters was that despite the distance from Lake Ontario; yes, Plattekill gets LE to an extent.

You guys and gals have just told me, "No, Chris, Platekill gets Lake Effect!" without any supporting data:
  • The average Platekill snowfall is not 180 inches, but 114 inches - roughly the same as Hunter/Windham/Bellayre. Onthesnow.com shows a similar lower average annual snowfall.
  • There is a "vibe" argument this forum puts forward. Platekill is "cool" because of its owner, independent (vs. Hunter/Windham), open, limited operations (Fri-Sun & Holidays), less crowded (longer drive?, less terrain?, less for intermediates/novice?). Yes, nice expert terrain/shorter lines, more space - but this does not put Platekill in a lake effect snowbelt.
I grew up in Upstate NY & Hudson River and skied the nearby mountains of Scotch Valley/Deer Run, Bobcat, and even Platekill - and never ever a weather report putting the Catskills in a Lake Effect Snowbelt. The nearby resorts had really had a lake effect, as shown in total.
  • Bobcat summit 3525 ft
  • Platekill summit (lower) 3500 ft

I have only seen some Nor'easter storms get a bit enhanced when winds shift from East-Northeast to a Northwest flow at the end.

Greek Peak gets only a few lake-effect storms. Song & Labrador are closer to the lake, and often do better, as does the city of Syracuse.

I am being lectured by a bunch of NYC Metro Suburbanites about NY snow belts. ;);):eusa-hand::D



So far this year, I absolutely see no Lake Effect Snow for the Catskills. And it's been a good year for other Lake SnowBelt areas from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York (Erie & Ontario).


Some data points for Winter 2025/26:

As of January 20th, the Previous 2 Weeks of New York Snowfall

NY Snowfall Previous 15 Days.jpg





As of January 20th, the NEXT, Forecasted 2 Weeks of New York Snowfall
NY Snowfall Forecast 15 Days.jpg
 
For what it's worth, I just finished reading a book all about lake effect snow. There was a link in one of the articles posted in this thread. The author is a Distinguished Professor of Geography in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University. A quarter of the 250 pages are the Notes with references. He starts with the history of snow record keeping that led to the understanding of "lake effect" in the snow belts to the east of the Great Lakes. There are small black&white versions of snowfall maps starting in the 1800s. Fair to say that data collection evolved over the last couple hundred years. Mapping used to be a painstaking manual process.

Lake Effect, Tales of Large Lakes, Arctic Winds, and Recurrent Snows
by Mark Monmonier, 2012, Syracuse University Press

Probably would need to read this book a few more times to really absorb even half of the info. I got it used. Looks like it was a textbook for a course.

The extent of lake effect from the Great Lakes goes much farther south and east than you might expect when looking at data over decades. Very clear that West Virginia does benefit every so often. I've arrived at Plattekill at the start of a big snowstorm after skiing at Windham. By morning it was even clearer that it's in a different weather zone than Windham and Hunter. Had someone tell me once that Plattekill isn't in the Catskills but in another geological area.
 
I've arrived at Plattekill at the start of a big snowstorm after skiing at Windham. By morning it was even clearer that it's in a different weather zone than Windham and Hunter. Had someone tell me once that Plattekill isn't in the Catskills but in another geological area.
No argument with any of this. Weather generally comes from the west. Plattekill is the first place in/near the Catskills that will get hit and should get more than places farther east. Most mountain ranges in North America work this way: Sierra, Wasatch, Tetons, etc.
 
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And the data does not support Platekill being a Lake Effect area. The real data from NY Ski Blog indicate 114 inches of annual snowfall, very similar to other Catskill resorts. Nothing special, very average.

It's spelled Plattekill. How many times have you skied there? Why do you care about this so much?

Of the four Catskill hills, Plattekill gets the most snow from lake enhancement and the least from synoptic or coastal events.

Nobody is saying Plattekill gets lake effect like Woods Valley or Snow Ridge. But you'd have to be blind not to see the impact of the lakes across most of NY including the Cats.

The average is what was reported to On The Snow. The problem with that is that some years reflect what was reported and some don't.

Check it out:


It's very f'd up. Also your spotting for "Platekill" is 20 miles WNW of Plattekill.
 
I was channeling admin.

Here's the NY Radar now.

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I believe that there was some kind of disturbance that passed through last night. Maybe @jasoncapecod can confirm.

Today, with a 20% chance of snow here, at our place near Gore, we got at least another two inches. (I was in the woods all day and it was glorious.)

Gore doesn't actually get that much lake effect.

After years of watching both mountains, and skiing them too, I see much more lake effect at Plattekill.

Here's Saturdays forecast. Snow across NY, and the whole great lakes region, heaviest in "lake effect" areas. Not a low in sight.

noaad2.png
 
I was channeling admin.

Here's the NY Radar now.

View attachment 48955

I believe that there was some kind of disturbance that passed through last night. Maybe @jasoncapecod can confirm.

Today, with a 20% chance of snow here, at our place near Gore, we got at least another two inches. (I was in the woods all day and it was glorious.)

Gore doesn't actually get that much lake effect.

After years of watching both mountains, and skiing them too, I see much more lake effect at Plattekill.

Here's Saturdays forecast. Snow across NY, and the whole great lakes region, heaviest in "lake effect" areas. Not a low in sight.

View attachment 48956
Snowed all day in the cats too
It was warm air advection before the arctic front
 
That NY radar pic looks like classic lake effect; downwind east of Lake Erie and Ontario, not SE towards the Catskills. Can the wind blow NW to SE over the lakes? I'm sure it can, but the fetch over water is shorter and ensuing distance over land to the Catskills is much farther than to Tug Hill. And I'm reasonably sure that the pattern shown in that radar pic is far more frequent.
Snowed all day in the cats too
It was warm air advection before the arctic front
Any weather disturbance will get enhanced when it hits the Catskills due to orographic uplift, and Plattekill will get the most because it's on the western leading edge, no different than we see in western mountains.

Is a storm as hyped as this one going to generate massive crowds and traffic to the ski areas this weekend?
 
That NY radar pic looks like classic lake effect; downwind east of Lake Erie and Ontario, not SE towards the Catskills. Can the wind blow NW to SE over the lakes? I'm sure it can, but the fetch over water is shorter and ensuing distance over land to the Catskills is much farther than to Tug Hill. And I'm reasonably sure that the pattern shown in that radar pic is far more frequent.

Any weather disturbance will get enhanced when it hits the Catskills due to orographic uplift, and Plattekill will get the most because it's on the western leading edge, no different than we see in western mountains.

Is a storm as hyped as this one going to generate massive crowds and traffic to the ski areas this weekend?
Sometimes, just the opposite, Tony. People who might otherwise be driving up from NYC or the NYC suburbs to ski for the weekend will stay home when they see the predictions that driving back home on Sunday, in the height of the storm, will be terrible and Monday may not be much better. Plus, it is supposed to be brutally cold on Saturday with wind chills 20 to 30 (F) below zero. Not a good day to be on the slopes. Typically, ski areas in the northeast HATE forecasts like this one.
 
That NY radar pic looks like classic lake effect; downwind east of Lake Erie and Ontario, not SE towards the Catskills. Can the wind blow NW to SE over the lakes? I'm sure it can, but the fetch over water is shorter and ensuing distance over land to the Catskills is much farther than to Tug Hill. And I'm reasonably sure that the pattern shown in that radar pic is far more frequent.

Any weather disturbance will get enhanced when it hits the Catskills due to orographic uplift, and Plattekill will get the most because it's on the western leading edge, no different than we see in western mountains.

Is a storm as hyped as this one going to generate massive crowds and traffic to the ski areas this weekend?
Brutal cold this satuday
Snow won’t hit mts until late Sunday morning.
On Saturday I was suppose to attend a wedding in southern Maine
We cancelled
 
Sometimes, just the opposite, Tony. People who might otherwise be driving up from NYC or the NYC suburbs to ski for the weekend will stay home when they see the predictions that driving back home on Sunday, in the height of the storm, will be terrible and Monday may not be much better. Plus, it is supposed to be brutally cold on Saturday with wind chills 20 to 30 (F) below zero. Not a good day to be on the slopes. Typically, ski areas in the northeast HATE forecasts like this one.

Agree. I read an interview with an Okemo GM. He said their optimal weather forecast for business: Vermont just needs snowmaking weather with snow-cover for aesthetics; hopefully, the Bo-Wash corridor gets 3-6-inch weekday storms to remind the weekenders of snow & skiing, and let the weather be clear for weekend driving and moderate winter temperatures on the mountain.

That's the recipe for a record weekend at the southern Vermont snowmaking resorts and others in New England!

Again, this does not necessrily help Mad River Glen, which has a different crowd and best-case weather scenarios.
 
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