Europe June 2026 Heat Wave: Worst Ever?

jamesdeluxe

jamesdeluxe

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As part of Fraser's observation that climate change is hitting across the pond harder than North America and faster in the Alps than in the lowlands -- he expects temps in London to be in the high 90s by mid-next week and even worse for France with wide sections hitting 105 for several days and the potential for a Death Valley-like 113 in places. Yikes.
 
My observation is that climate change affects:
1) Inland areas more than coastal areas
2) Summer more than winter, especially in the inland areas.

So in terms of skiing what is most visible is the shrinking summer glacier season in the Alps. North America's summer ski scene is way more limited, and I may have presumed that the locations (Blackcomb and Timberline) in coastal mountains with cooler summers would help them. But 2024 was the last summer for Blackcomb and Timberline's closing date has retreated by a month in the past decade.

As for winter, the Alps have a ton of local resorts that developed gradually after WWII out of very low elevation villages ~1,000 meters. These areas always saw their share of rain, but the balance has tipped more against them in recent years.

I don't know that much about the finer details of Euro climatology. In particular what might cause these summer events where hot air comes up from the Sahara and blasts Spain and much of France? I am in general suspicious of claims that climate change is the driver of unusual weather patterns like that.
 
jamesdeluxe said:
France with wide sections hitting 105 for several days
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The NY Times says: Only an estimated 20% to 25% of households in France have air conditioning, with Paris apartments having an even lower penetration rate—often cited as low as 2% to 5% for private residential units.
 
jamesdeluxe said:
As part of Fraser's observation that climate change is hitting across the pond harder than North America and faster in the Alps than in the lowlands -- he expects temps in London to be in the high 90s by mid-next week and even worse for France with wide sections hitting 105 for several days and the potential for a Death Valley-like 113 in places. Yikes.
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Unreal, but not atypical heat anymore.

I did not know drowning deaths get added to heat fatality numbers.

Gift Link https://wapo.st/4ajJZz4

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ChrisC said:
I did not know drowning deaths get added to heat fatality numbers. Gift Link https://wapo.st/4ajJZz4
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Hundreds of people all complained about the same thing in the comments -- that the article put the 40 drownings in the headline then didn't bother to explain their circumstances. Difficult to believe that Brittany of all places reached 106F; however, western France seems to be getting hit hard by recent heat waves.
 
jamesdeluxe said:
Difficult to believe that Brittany of all places reached 106F; however, western France seems to be getting hit hard by recent heat waves.
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That's insane. The North Atlantic region of France generally has moderate to cool temperatures.

And I was always curious about the 'Surf Culture' of San Sebastian and Biarritz. Seemed rough and cold to me, but so is NorCal. Scuba and surfing, even in Santa Cruz/Monterey Bay, are not something I want to do too often.
 
jamesdeluxe said:
I guess it's a question of which scientists you believe?
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It is logical that severity of these events would be greater. Frequency is the more debatable point. In the case of hurricanes, the data is clear that severity is up and frequency is not.

We have these heat dome events in the western US and my impression is similar to the situation with hurricanes.

I have learned that extrapolating western North America climate patterns to other parts of the world is often not a great idea. And Europe has very unique climatology due to the Gulf Stream. I would like to see some long term data from Europe. We know that global warming effects are not uniform by region and are specifically much more in the Arctic. I read yesterday that overall warming in Europe is about double the worldwide average. Extreme events also tend to exceed past records by more than the increase in average temperatures. So I don't dispute:
As recently as 2003, a heatwave like the current one in Europe would have been 2C cooler due to the lower level of global heating at the time. In 1976, another famous heatwave year, it would have been 3.5C cooler.
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Our March meltdown in the western US ski areas this year was anomalous to what's happening in Europe now. But I see little discussion about frequency. FYI I was skiing in Colorado at NASJA meetings in late March of 2004 and 2007, coming at the end of 3 week warm and dry spells. But those events started with normal snowpacks so enough of it survived when snow resumed at the end of the month. 2004 Season Analysis:
The storms moved north for the first week of March, but warm and dry weather dominated the entire western U.S. for nearly 3 weeks, with only western Canada getting significant new snow. Snow was degraded on sunny exposures and the snowpack declined as much as 30% in a month when it is usually still increasing.
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2007:
There were substantial storms in Utah and some northern Rockies areas in early March, but most of the month substantial new snow was confined to western Canada, so most of the U.S. West went to spring conditions in the warm weather, with even some trail closures at areas with below average snow depths.
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No question the actual temperatures were hotter in 2026, but I don't believe frequency of these events is up in the western US. I have an open mind about Europe, but would like to see hard evidence.
 
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