I'd say extremely low snow year, which would fit with what Fraser has been saying about the southern side of the Alps all season. Your 2004 and 2018 trips were in very big years though.
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Western Weather 2017-18 and Later
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EMSC
Well-known member
Not sure, but probably in the 30's F. Due to Altitude and mountains vs flatlands/near desert mean climate differences in Colo can be quite extreme. thus the nearly 50F temp difference for my paddle boarding vs snowing relatively close to each other.
Definitely not hail. 14'ers like Pikes Peak often will see a first snow or two consisting of a couple inches in late August. It doesn't stick around of course. Early fall is usually mostly dry and still plenty warm in Colorado. First snows that are likely to stick around (at least on N faces) aren't usually until mid-October or even later depending on the year.
EMSC
Well-known member
This has never made any sense to me. Copper pushes the last piles of snow around to melt them out instead of just letting them sit and melt. Why would you pay people, burn fuel, etc... for something that is either going to melt on its own, or if you get lucky, lasts until October and can be used as a firm under base base material and reduce the volume of the coming winters snowmaking?
Anyone have any ideas? I sure can't figure out why you would waste money doing so.
Aug 24th wastefulness:
Anyone have any ideas? I sure can't figure out why you would waste money doing so.
Aug 24th wastefulness:
The only thing that would make sense to me is if they want to do some work in that spot, or another spot, where heavy equipment would need go through that spot.
@Tony Crocker
I see your site is referenced in this article.
It's fantastic that the good people at Open Snow find your great work over the years valuable.
I see your site is referenced in this article.
La Niña Is Strengthening, Potential Winter 2022-2023 Impacts | OpenSnow
For the upcoming winter season, a "Triple Dip La Niña” looks to be in-store and better yet, current sea surfac...
opensnow.com
I’ll hazard a guess that they don’t want clumps of what might become solid ice in October. That’s what I’ve seen on top of Climax and Dave’s Run after the big 2011 and 2017 seasons. In both cases the ensuing early seasons were lean and those runs didn’t open for quite awhile due to the ice and fall exposure.
But that’s not at all what EMSC’s pic looks like. I think if a groomer packs the snow it should both last longer and present a better subsurface when snowmaking begins.
But if you really want snow to last longest you build those pyramids like Pitztal was doing in March, then break them down and spread the snow around when you are preparing to open for skiing.
So yes I would think Copper should build piles in May/June which I would expect to last through the summer at 11,000+. You can also cover the piles with tarps or sawdust as Avila did in some Aprils to spread out in a park for Canada Day. I would not be surprised if Pitztal’s snow pyramids have insulating tarps midsummer either.
With all of the above in mind it makes no sense to have a groomer moving snow around in August.
But that’s not at all what EMSC’s pic looks like. I think if a groomer packs the snow it should both last longer and present a better subsurface when snowmaking begins.
But if you really want snow to last longest you build those pyramids like Pitztal was doing in March, then break them down and spread the snow around when you are preparing to open for skiing.
So yes I would think Copper should build piles in May/June which I would expect to last through the summer at 11,000+. You can also cover the piles with tarps or sawdust as Avila did in some Aprils to spread out in a park for Canada Day. I would not be surprised if Pitztal’s snow pyramids have insulating tarps midsummer either.
With all of the above in mind it makes no sense to have a groomer moving snow around in August.
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Marc_C
Active member
Did anyone try asking Copper?
I'll leave Marc's request to our local friend EMSC. But perhaps the Euros have more experience in preserving snow through the summer. We saw tarps protecting snow at the closed Galdhøpiggen ski area in Norway last week.
With regard to the OpenSnow piece, it's unfortunate that they no longer allow comments. I think it's fantasyland to imply that the current state of La Nina means we might duplicate the 2010-11 best natural snow season in our lifetimes next year. One year is not a valid sample size for comparison! Here's what they should have posted, based upon numerous El Nino and La Nina months going back to the 1970's.
Total variation isn't that much, less than I expected.
How can a region (Utah) have nothing above 100? Shouldn't all seasons together average 100?
The table above is seasons since 1976. Some individual areas go back farther and most of early 70’s were high snow years.
As for “not a lot” 120% is actually a big number for a region collectively. The Northeast has had four 120+% seasons since 1976 and none since 2001.
I have four more 120+% Northeast seasons before 1976 but they are based upon no more than four areas, mainly Killington, the Mansfield Stake and Mt. Washington.
The Pacific Northwest has five 120+% seasons since 1976 and four of them are La Ninas. There are another five before 1976 with less data and three of those are La Ninas.
As for the rest of the West some of the La Ninas are good nearly everywhere like 2010-11 and some of them like 2011-12 are awful outside those 3 northern regions.
As for “not a lot” 120% is actually a big number for a region collectively. The Northeast has had four 120+% seasons since 1976 and none since 2001.
I have four more 120+% Northeast seasons before 1976 but they are based upon no more than four areas, mainly Killington, the Mansfield Stake and Mt. Washington.
The Pacific Northwest has five 120+% seasons since 1976 and four of them are La Ninas. There are another five before 1976 with less data and three of those are La Ninas.
As for the rest of the West some of the La Ninas are good nearly everywhere like 2010-11 and some of them like 2011-12 are awful outside those 3 northern regions.
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We've had below avg snowfall in the west-central part of Idaho the last two winters, which were both weak to moderate La Nina's. While ENSO is important, IMO more weight should be given to the Pacific Oscillations, like the Madden-Julian and N. Pacific... especially in years where La Nina is not strong category. Strong ENSO events typically bring about the most classic conditions associated with ENSO... La Nina =Wet PNW, Dry SW, and vice versa with El Nino.
Those are important but they are not predictable with much lead time. The upcoming La Lina looks stronger than the past two years. And when it's this strong in September, it's virtually a lock to persist through at least February.
The last two years at 85% were the lowest La Nina years for the Northern Rockies going back to the early 1970's. There is no La Nina year below 98% for the PNW or 95% for interior western Canada.
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EMSC
Well-known member
Euro's, and from Rockies to North East scheduled to get the goods - or at least some cold:
Tonga Volcano impact - warm stratosphere in Northern hemisphere from eruption means polar vortex can more easily come down to lower latitudes...
OK, maybe, maybe not (weakish correlation stuff), but maybe??
Throw in some moisture from La Nina and were solid!
Tonga Volcano impact - warm stratosphere in Northern hemisphere from eruption means polar vortex can more easily come down to lower latitudes...
OK, maybe, maybe not (weakish correlation stuff), but maybe??
Throw in some moisture from La Nina and were solid!
tseeb
Well-known member
I was hoping to find a connection between the last good season for snowfall in CA Sierra (2018-19 when Palisades Tahoe reported 719" at 8200') and record early Sept. temps in Bay Area, but can't and know it would not mean much.
9/1/17 Nearby wunderground station reported 112.1. Official San Jose temp was 108, highest ever recorded.
9/5/20 Same station as above 112.5. Official San Jose temp was 105.
9/6/22 Same station as above 114.8. My weather station reported high of 116, although I never saw reading above 114.6. Official San Jose temp was highest ever recorded at 109.
The good news is that my weather station reported low of 66 this morning, temp got to 100 an hour later than yesterday and did not go higher for a while (finally went to 101, but is back at 100). The bad news is that tomorrow is predicted to be warmer and heat will be with us through Friday. When it ends, it's possible remnants of tropical storm off Baja could bring flash flooding to So Cal and dry lightning to No. CA.
We ran air conditioner from about noon to 4 pm yesterday, slowly raising upstairs temp setting from 80-82. We turned it off at 4 pm when rates go up and they asked for conservation to avoid rotating outages. Not much later, we went to brewpub in Los Gatos on way to concert outdoor at Mountain Winery in Saratoga, which was in shade when we got there. Both Los Gatos and Saratoga are in warm parts of So. SF Bay Area and reported 114 and 116, respectively.
We've left our dog in the house alone 3 of the last 4 days for as much as 6 1/2 hours as it's too hot for her to be outside. We plan to attend a movie at 3:30 this afternoon.
9/1/17 Nearby wunderground station reported 112.1. Official San Jose temp was 108, highest ever recorded.
9/5/20 Same station as above 112.5. Official San Jose temp was 105.
9/6/22 Same station as above 114.8. My weather station reported high of 116, although I never saw reading above 114.6. Official San Jose temp was highest ever recorded at 109.
The good news is that my weather station reported low of 66 this morning, temp got to 100 an hour later than yesterday and did not go higher for a while (finally went to 101, but is back at 100). The bad news is that tomorrow is predicted to be warmer and heat will be with us through Friday. When it ends, it's possible remnants of tropical storm off Baja could bring flash flooding to So Cal and dry lightning to No. CA.
We ran air conditioner from about noon to 4 pm yesterday, slowly raising upstairs temp setting from 80-82. We turned it off at 4 pm when rates go up and they asked for conservation to avoid rotating outages. Not much later, we went to brewpub in Los Gatos on way to concert outdoor at Mountain Winery in Saratoga, which was in shade when we got there. Both Los Gatos and Saratoga are in warm parts of So. SF Bay Area and reported 114 and 116, respectively.
We've left our dog in the house alone 3 of the last 4 days for as much as 6 1/2 hours as it's too hot for her to be outside. We plan to attend a movie at 3:30 this afternoon.
Today is the 8th consecutive day over 100F in Glendale/Burbank. Our house was 95F inside when we got home from Europe Sunday. We went the beach yesterday where it was 85F with no breeze, warmest beach day since I was in Florida in 2020.
EMSC
Well-known member
It's been hitting upper nineties F here for the past several days on the flatlands of Colo (but not 8 days). By tomorrow, high of only 71 forecast and upper 50's for Sat with rain before a return to the 80's next week. Certainly above normal recently. I haven't looked at weather maps but would guess we are far enough east to be on the edge of the super warm bubble of air.
Eventually I probably will ask through my network; but I expect a less than interesting response so not exactly a top priority question. Copper is a bit better managed now (last few years), but still can be managed goofily at times and on certain topics.