Western Weather 2017-18 and Later

I lot of this seasons early winter issues are altitude too. Loveland has had select openings of natural snow terrain already (nix nox for example) as has ABasin... (west wall for one). Meanwhile lower altitude places like Steamboat had only made snow for 8 total hours prior to the latest cold snap that started Tues night.

My homer resort of Eldora has a base lodge at ~9,400' which is not exactly low altitude, yet has struggled to make snow itself - often being warmer at night than down here in the flatlands. With this weeks couple of days of snowmaking they will make it open on time (Friday), but just barely getting the initial trails covered in the nick of time (eg they are still blowing snow on the initial trail or two this am still with opening only 24hrs away).

So for at least parts of Colorado, above 10K or so feet, snowpack is pretty much on track. Below that it gets less rapidly and has been terribly warm for anything below probably 9K feet.

At any rate, much of the Western US is looking at a pretty terrible Turkey Day for snowsports. Good thing I'll be skiing the huge pow of Central NY :icon-rolleyes:................:icon-smile:
 
jamesdeluxe said:
the lack of snowfall
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? 40 inches in October and 39 so far in November at Targhee. Ironically, I just e-mailed Patrick last night suggesting based on those stats that Targhee was likely the safest bet for early December. OpenSnow says Targhee is predicted to get 17 inches over the upcoming weekend. That's more than any other lift served area shown on OpenSnow maps.

The consistent message, as noted by EMSC and the article I referenced, is the warm temperatures. I'd guess with its noted consistent climate that Targhee has minimal snowmaking, but it's still surprising that it lost that much of its early snow at its altitude and latitude.

I never assume quality skiing before Christmas and thus often schedule non-ski vacations in this time frame. On Nov. 25 we leave for two weeks in Chile, the 8th year of such travel in Nov/Dec since I retired.
 
Tony Crocker said:
OpenSnow says Targhee is predicted to get 17 inches over the upcoming weekend.
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Yes, what they're referring to in the marketing e-mail above.

Tony Crocker said:
I never assume quality skiing before Christmas and thus often schedule non-ski vacations in this time frame.
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However, as you've noted before, Grand Targhee is year in/year out the best bet in North America for a December destination trip.
 
Targhee has only 4 of the past 18 years been under half open on Dec. 1 and averages 71%. For Dec. 15 Targhee has had only one year under 77% out of the past 25 and that one was still at 50%. I wouldn't worry about mid-December but I wouldn't recommend much earlier than that this year.

And of course my opinion about skiing before Christmas is not "Don't do it;" it's "Don't schedule it in advance where you have to commit any $$ to lodging or airfare." It's ironic that I've set some personal records for the early season in a year that is overall not looking so good for it.
 
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I have data on average percents open for many major areas, so I was curious how exceptional the 71% stat on Dec. 1 for Targhee is.

Wolf Creek averages 76% but it's notoriously aggressive about opening with low tide conditions. However Wolf also averages a 36 inch base at Thanksgiving which is quite respectable.

Sunshine at 58% and Lake Louise at 48% are the most surprising Dec. 1 numbers I have. Neither gets a lot of snow, but snow in Western Canada is a bit more front-ended than in the western US, and Banff is so cold that October snow probably doesn't melt out much. These areas may also be liberal about opening with low tide coverage.

Alta at 50% and Mammoth at 40% are areas I am not surprised to see high on the list for Dec. 1. For Mammoth Dec. 1 it's also not surprising to see 20% of seasons at 70% or more but 30% of seasons at 15% or less.
 
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Front page of my local paper "Tree rings indicate 2001-2022 is driest 22-year-period since at least 800 A.D., when Vikings sailed and Mayans built temples"

and

"Over the past 20 years, California has had three stretches of short-term drought: 2000-2003, 2007-2009 and 2012 to 2016. Each drought ended with a soaking year, most recently in 2017, when heavy rains caused flooding that damaged Oroville Dam and submerged parts of downtown San Jose.

The past two years have seen another sharp period of drought, which is still underway in California and much of the West. Despite rains in December, reservoirs across the state remain at lower than average levels, wildfire danger is rising, and the Bay Area hasn’t seen any rain in five weeks.

Taken together, the last 22 years now exceed the previous worst 22-year period, 1571 to 1593, in the historical record, measured by soil moisture."
 
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That same article was front page L.A Times today.

The current midwinter snow drought in the West is unprecedented IMHO for its severity and wide span of most ski regions.

Most of California has had zero snow since Dec. 30. In Mammoth's case this breaks the 44-day record set two years ago from mid-January through the end of February. Areas NW of Lake Tahoe got up to 6 inches the first week of January but nothing since then.

Utah ski areas have received 4-8 inches of snow since Jan. 8. Alta Collins has had no Jan/Feb/Mar months with less than 30.5 inches in 41 years of records. The AltaGuard UDOT records go back to 1946 and there's one January in 1961 with just 1 inch.

Since 1977 Targhee has never had a January with less than 55 inches or a February with less than 41 inches. Since January 8 Targhee has had 11 inches and mid-mountain Jackson 10 inches. Elsewhere in the northern US Rockies, Whitefish and Lookout Pass are the only areas I track to get more than 17 inches since Jan. 8. I read last week that Red Lodge got a localized dump of close to 3 feet.

After being rained upon the second week of January, Washington and Oregon ski areas have had 11-19 inches snow in the past month. Whistler has done better with 3 feet but that's still less than half normal.

Most of southern and western Colorado has had 10-15 inches of snow since Jan. 10. There was a localized storm in New Mexico the first week of February that dumped 27 inches at Wolf Creek and 3 feet at Taos, opening the Kachina chair Feb. 5.

Front range/I-70 Colorado averaged a little over 2 feet of snow since Jan. 8. That's about half normal.

Interior western Canada has managed the best, averaging 3+ feet and topped by Revelstoke at 5 feet. Those numbers are still below average though.

The worst season of recent times was 2014-15. I'm not sure there was as quite an acutely dry spell of 5 weeks as this one, but February and March were comparably dry to January in most regions. December was the snowiest month in 2014-15, and fortunately this past December was much bigger than Dec. 2014. Thus I do not expect as depleted a snowpack as in 2015 later on even if the dry weather continues.

The absolute worst seasons are the ones where the drought is in November/December, sometimes extending into January. 1976-77 and 1980-81 were the worst of those. 2011-12 and 2017-18 were comparable in some regions. The November/December droughts tend to be more severe than the midwinter ones, at least up to now.
 
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The current winter snow drought for Lake Tahoe ended this morning with 2" reported at most areas, 3" at Heavenly and 7-9" at Mt Rose from an inside slider storm. It is expected to drop more snow at Kirkwood which reported a 1/2" this AM, and at Mammoth during the day.
 
Tony Crocker said:
Front range/I-70 Colorado averaged a little over 2 feet of snow since Jan. 8. That's about half normal.
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Concur. Over this way it's not a disaster, but below normal. Fortunately its been several smaller storms so that surfaces keep mostly-ish refreshed over the whole stretch. Another 4-8"-er headed in Wed evening, then yet another 6 or so day dry period before the next small storm. Rinse, wash and repeat.
 
Due to the big December, this season is far from a disaster. It as also helpful that January was cool in most places (that rain in the PNW being the unhappy exception) so most places retained winter snow during the dry weather. The warmup last week changed that though, along with higher sun angle. Now there are a lot of places with melt/freeze conditions. But this is when EMSC's region starts to shine, as spring conditions remain at least a month away with the favorable altitude/exposure even if it's not snowing very much.
 
Western Europe has been relatively dry for the last week. Has there been any study into correlation between continents as far as precipitation is concerned? I'm guessing not.
 
I'd be astounded if correlations between the Alps and North America were anything other than zero. In fact there is minimal correlation between eastern and western North America, though there is popular misconception that East vs. West snowfall is negatively correlated.
 
One week to Memorial Day holiday weekend:
abasincam6000m.jpg


And yes, my trees are about to snap from the heavy wet slop down here in the flatlands...
 
Tony Crocker said:
I'd be astounded if correlations between the Alps and North America were anything other than zero. In fact there is minimal correlation between eastern and western North America, though there is popular misconception that East vs. West snowfall is negatively correlated.
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It's extremely rare to have a trough in both east and west. I got no data, but after watching this closely for 20 years, I just can't believe you are correct. Educate me.

The world? Surely any connection is less direct than east and western Noam, but I'd be surprised if there isn't some kind of cause and effect.
 
SeasonSnowCorrelations.jpg


The above chart shows season snowfall correlations by region. The relationships among western regions are what you would expect, with adjacent regions strongly correlated. All of the western regions have low but positive correlations to the Northeast. I wouldn't argue that those numbers are high enough to mean anything, but they certainly refute the view that the correlation is negative.

My guess is that some weather systems that hit western regions end up in the East a few days later.

In terms of specific years, the famous case that supports Harvey's view is 1976-77, worst ever 58% in the West and second highest 130% in the Northeast. The season which is most extreme the other way is 1994-95, 122% in the West and 77% in the East.

Some years with both good: 119% West and 120% Northeast in 1996-97, 120% West and 117% Northeast in 2007-08 and 120% West and 118% Northeast in 2016-17.

Some years with both bad: 70% West and 81% Northeast in 1980-81, 76% West and 87% Northeast in 1991-92 and 87% West and 67% Northeast in 2011-12.

Monthly correlations should be more credible than seasonal; shorter timeframe and more data. The following correlations to Killington are generally based on 300+ months of data:

Mammoth
12%​
Crater Lake
15%​
Mt. Rainier
9%​
Whistler
5%​
Alta
11%​
Jackson
24%​
Rogers Pass, B.C.
19%​
Berthoud Pass, CO
9%​
Gothic Snow Lab, CO
17%​
Taos
5%​

No different result here than on the seasonal numbers, all insignificant positives.
 
Harvey said:
Temps and snowfall are surely two different things.
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Your question was in response to my comment that eastern and western snowfalls are not correlated negatively and I provided the evidence of that. Temperature is a different subject, and yes I also have the impression that abnormally warm western winters (1976-77, 2013-14, 2014-15) are cold in the East. Despite the cold weather Northeast ski area snowfall was 97% in 2013-14 and 93% in 2014-15. I have no idea whether the above temperature observation is anecdotal or a real persisting pattern.

Another point to keep in mind is my Northeast ski area snowfall stats are mostly upper New England. Lower New England, NYC area, mid-Atlantic may well benefit more from the cold eastern seasons as usually a lot of their precipitation is rain and maybe in the colder years some of that flips to snow. I also recognize that qualitatively, eastern ski seasons probably are more dependent upon temperature (more snowmaking, less rain) than snowfall totals. Even for Vermont, my snow conditions chart shows 2013-14 and 2014-15 as above average seasons despite below average snowfall.

I'm sure Harvey and most eastern skiers know that the big snowstorms that hit the East Coast cities and make the news rarely do much in the upper New England ski areas.
 
It's fun to watch the back and forth between Harv and Tony, each with their specific POV.

Time to give this thread a different subject line? :eusa-think:
 
Does this count as "Juneuary"? 10" in 3 days. I haven't heard if it was true new snow skiing, dust on crust, or sticky slowness...

Juneuary.JPG
 
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