Could gas prices top $8 in California by 2026 ?

[EMSC]

Lee Vining Chevron. Shell across the street was $5.99 for regular. Bridgeport, only 60 miles S of Gardnerville, was over $6.40 for regular.

Wow that's insane. And I've been complaining that Colo is still hovering just above/below $3 for a couple months now despite the reduction in crude prices in the past month+. I've been thinking I should see some ~$2.50 to $2.75 kind of numbers but haven't yet.

Also heard at least one more refinery in Cali is going to shut operations early next year which will just continue to increase those prices. Plus heard a 2nd one is considering shutting. I'm sure Newsom will find a way to run around hand-waving to distract from it all. Interestingly it may not matter if cali either does or doesn't have an electric car mandate. Soon enough nearly all the refiners will walk away whenever big maintenance or forced upgrades timing comes along. Those kind of investments are so costly they can only be economically justified over decades long timelines which Cali isn't going to give them.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Wow, those gas prices will make you go EV. Here's what it looks like in northern NJ. Costco is 15 cents cheaper.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Also heard at least one more refinery in Cali is going to shut operations early next year which will just continue to increase those prices. Plus heard a 2nd one is considering shutting. I'm sure Newsom will find a way to run around hand-waving to distract from it all. Interestingly it may not matter if cali either does or doesn't have an electric car mandate. Soon enough nearly all the refiners will walk away whenever big maintenance or forced upgrades timing comes along. Those kind of investments are so costly they can only be economically justified over decades long timelines which Cali isn't going to give them.

+1 Yes definitely agree the refinery situation is the underlying cause of gas price divergence vs. other states growing over time. Can gas be imported from other states? Generally not because California gas particularly in summer is specially formulated to help minimize smog. And almost no one outside California refines that blend of gasoline.

Wow, those gas prices will make you go EV.

With two Mammoth trip plus the Oregon trip, we drove the Tesla 3825 miles in April 2025 with our free supercharging. If that had been in our other car, I estimate $866 in gas cost. Paid supercharging would have cost about 40% of that.

 

[tseeb]

I often post photos of gas prices I encounter in Bridgeport and Lee Vining, CA on my route between Minden/Gardnerville, NV and Mammoth Mountain, a 120 mile drive. Yesterday the gas price photos and comments cluttered thread started by @Tony Crocker on the excellent May 8 and 9 Spring skiing we had at Mammoth. Below are prices from the only two gas stations in Bridgeport, CA, 60 miles S of Gardnerville, NV which are most likely the highest in CA.

On my trip home after skiing, with Tioga and Sonora passes still closed from Winter, I could have taken steep and 8,314' Monitor Pass from Topaz Lake (elev. ~5000') to Markleville (elev. 5530' and county seat of Alpine County, pop. 1204 in 2020, CA's least populated county), then rejoined CA-88 and gone past Kirkwood and save 8 miles, but adds 2 minutes according to Google maps. Doing so would mean missing filling up on less expensive (also lower octane since it's higher elevation) gas in Minden or Gardnerville.

Going via Monitor Pass or skipping less expensive NV gas, I would likely not make it all the way home (120 miles Minden-Mammoth plus 325+ miles with three 8000'+ passes Mammoth-home), but could have made it over the Sierra to Costco in Tracy, CA (60 miles before home) where I had paid about $4.20 in mid-April. But when I checked Gas Buddy yesterday, it showed $4.45 and today says $4.49. On my way to Mammoth, I filled up for $3.66 in Minden. On the way back, 36 hrs later the same station was $3.72. I have to wonder if this is the start of rise to $8 or more for all of CA.

Story from KSBW-TV San Diego is titled "Gas price could top $8 in California due to refinery closures" and includes "According to a new report, gas prices in California could increase up to 75% by the end of 2026 as the state prepares to lose nearly one-fifth of its oil refining capacity.

The scheduled closure of the Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles, along with Valero’s planned shutdown of its facility in Northern California, represents a potential 21% reduction in California’s refining output over three years, according to a report by Michael A. Mische of USC’s Marshall School of Business."

My local paper (sorry if behind paywall) article starts with "A fire Monday at Valero’s Benicia refinery leaves only one gasoline plant still operating in the San Francisco Bay Area, putting pressure on prices ahead of peak driving season and stymieing Governor Gavin Newsom’s efforts to offer relief to Californians.

Chevron’s Richmond refinery currently is the only plant in Northern California able to make up the fuel shortage after Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum converted their operations to renewable fuels — diesel and jet, but not gasoline — in recent years." Article also includes "Still, average prices across California Wednesday were 55 cents a gallon cheaper than the same time last year and $1.65 less than the highest-ever recorded average in the state, $6.44 a gallon in 2022, according to American Automobile Association data."

 

[jimk]

Tony are you tempted to go for a full EV?

 

[tseeb]

Good question, but no. If I lived in neighboring Santa Clara, where electricity is 59% less than PG&E (17.5 cents per KWH vs. 42.5 cents), maybe. My wife's son and his wife live there and have two electric SUVs, but they don't often charge at home as they get free charging at work and don't take roadtrips like I do. I would have to take more time on long road trips, which may be more relaxing and safer, but would take more time and even though I'm retired and approaching 70 would not always work for me. Last month, we drove to LA to see granddaughter's band play in my wife's low mileage 135 mph top speed/33 mpg highway at 75-80 Accord V6. After filling up at Costco near home, we got off freeway in LA (~325 miles) with over 200 miles to empty.

My 20+ year-old Honda Pilot which has almost 329K miles can get 400 miles on 19.4 gallon tank which I didn't think any electric vehicles will do and I've never ran out of gas or needed to be towed. But I just searched and found Cadillac claims 460 miles on $127K 2025 Escalade IQ and the first two in list of longest-range electric vehicles have 410 and 400 miles of range. (Fourth is Tesla Model S at 320 miles.)

I have deposits on two 2025 Grand Highlander Hybrids. One is new with interior color I want at dealer in San Joaquin Valley at sticker price that will not be available until end of May. The other is through connection I made from guys helping my sister last Saturday. It's at SF dealer and after a dispute over price was returned with 154 miles. I can buy it for $1000 under sticker with $700 first year registration already paid. I may lose 2-year free maintenance, but I have a great Honda/Toyota mechanic within (long) walking distance of my Mom's house that I would rather pay for a couple of oil changes since I trust him way more than local Toyota dealer thay would require me to leave vehicle all day for service and it would be 8+ miles bike ride home.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Repeated for convenience:
George Skelton in the LA Times Nov. 18, 2021 published a breakdown of California gas prices:

Crude $2.00
Standard Refining $1.00
Distribution $0.40
Taxes $0.85
Anti-smog refining plus cap-and-trade $0.56
The above add to $4.81 which is about right for regular in urban SoCal today.

The excess vs. an average US state should be the 56 cents plus 29 cents of the taxes.

The current excess in the ballpark of $1.50 has persisted for some time. The excess vs. Nevada is less than that, but it's more in Utah and Colorado.

I'm sure Newsom will find a way to run around hand-waving to distract from it all. Interestingly it may not matter if cali either does or doesn't have an electric car mandate. Soon enough nearly all the refiners will walk away whenever big maintenance or forced upgrades timing comes along.

Obviously no one will build a new refinery in a state promising to ban new gas vehicle sales. Demand should decline as gas cars are replaced. However in the short term it seems clear that supply is declining faster than demand.

The Mono County situation is due to smaller gas delivery trucks required. When my son Andrew lived in Eureka he learned that was the reason Humboldt County was 50 cents higher than most of California. Mono is worse, more like $1 higher than even Bishop 40 miles down the road. I recall seeing even higher relative gas prices in Big Sur in 2011.

Tony are you tempted to go for a full EV?

His use of the Honda Pilot checks all of the weaknesses for EVs.
1) Marathon distances
2) Remote locations
3) High speeds
4) Cold weather
5) Hill climbing
It's not that difficult to deal with 2 or 3 of these, but ski trips can be more challenging. As most of you know I drove my Tesla 8,000 miles round trip to Florida in 2020, but that was during hot weather months.

Tseeb drives on ski trips as if he was still working, no days off so more time pressure. This year was the first time we drove the Tesla any farther than our Snowbird week for skiing. It was to Colorado in March with lots of superchargers plus Paul's garage for overnight charging as he has a Tesla also. I have not been willing to drive after Snowbird to supercharger deserts in rural Montana and southern Colorado/New Mexico. I'm also reluctant to drive to western Canada in February when I've experienced subzero temperatures.

I firmly believe if you have one car for the remote road trips like my Cayenne or Tseeb's upcoming Highlander, any other family cars can/should be EVs. But it's nearly always more expensive to buy a new car vs. continuing to drive your old one assuming it is reliable. So as long as that Accord is reliable, Tseeb is probably not in a hurry to move on. That's sort of obvious given how far he pushed the Honda Pilot.

But I just searched and found Cadillac claims 460 miles on $127K 2025 Escalade IQ and the first two in list of longest-range electric vehicles have 410 and 400 miles of range.

EV road tripping is dependent upon the interaction of 3 variables: range, charging speed and density of charging stations. Those 400 mile GM SUVs have 200kW batteries that take a long time to charge. And we are still in a situation where you need the Tesla supercharger network for adequate density and reliability of Level 3 fast charging. For non-Teslas, selected new models are just coming out recently with NACS charging ports. But most of them require an adapter to use Tesla superchargers, and some manufacturers are more proactive about supplying them than others. There also needs to be a clean software interface between a non-Telsa EV and the superchargers, and I suspect that also varies by manufacturer.

 

[ChrisC]

I often post photos of gas prices I encounter in Bridgeport and Lee Vining, CA on my route between Minden/Gardnerville, NV and Mammoth Mountain, a 120 mile drive.

Obviously no one will build a new refinery in a state promising to ban new gas vehicle sales. Demand should decline as gas cars are replaced. However in the short term it seems clear that supply is declining faster than demand.

Re: Gas Prices. These are some of the most remote places in CA, so it is monopolistic/gauge tourist/expensive transportation pricing going on as much as the CA regulatory environment.

That said, one of my first business school case studies in the 2000s was CA gas prices and refineries—and the disconnect. It's a well-known problem—decades old.

Maybe all West Coast (WA, OR, CA) states should get on the same fuel grade for a summer mix.



And SLC, Utah is often a smoggy mess in the winter. Give it time - they will need to have the same regulations. Clean Air is not Republican/Democrat issue; it's just a quality of life value.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Re: Gas Prices. These are some of the most remote places in CA, so it is monopolistic/gauge tourist/expensive transportation pricing going on as much as the CA regulatory environment.

True, but the sharp demarcation between Bishop and Mammoth has to be due to smaller tankers servicing Mono County.

Clean Air is not Republican/Democrat issue; it's just a quality of life value.

Anyone like me who grew up in the L.A. Basin in the 1960's will tell you that. One of my mother's best friends going back to high school in SLC was Afton Slade, a founder of the SoCal activist group Stamp Out Smog.