Northern VT: what a start

jasoncapecod

jasoncapecod

Well-known member
This is from Stowe’s site:
  • 50 inches of natural snow depth observed at the fabled Mount Mansfield Summit Stake. 30 inches above the average for this date and the second deepest depth ever recorded since records began in 1954.
  • They have had 88 inches so far this season.
  • Jay is reporting 146 inches. IMO Jay is flat out wrong.
Let’s hope the east can hold onto this pattern.
 
You're calling BS on Jay? How is it comparing to Tug Hill right now?

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Snow Report
Tuesday December 9 at 7:46 AM
It’s only the second week of December, but it’s skiing more like mid-February. No new snow yesterday or overnight, but the 10 inches that blew in over the past 72 hours is still cold, light, and holding strong. Winds last night smoothed out surfaces, and with light skier traffic on Monday, coverage remains excellent.

Temps stay cold today, with a high around 16°F at the base. We may see about an inch of snow overnight, but the bigger story is Wednesday’s forecast. Temps rise to 30, which will feel like high summer after the past week, and with it comes a new storm system that could bring 4 to 8 inches over the next 48 hours. We’re hoping for the high end, but as always, we’ll take whatever the Jay Cloud provides.
 
As I mentioned in the western thread, I gathered Nov. 30 data but my laptop locked down before I could write it up. I got home yesterday and posted that report last night. Compare to Dec. 1, 2018. The percents of terrain open were much larger then and the early season Northeast snowfall was more widespread while it's concentrated in northern Vermont this time.

Recall that I was in the Northeast then, but it rained all day Dec. 2, which was my first ski day at Stratton. But snowfall resumed Dec. 5 and we got some of that at Sugarbush.

Percent open now vs. Dec. 8, 2018:
Jay 70% vs. 98%
Stowe 57% vs. 74%
Sugarbush 57% vs. 65%
Killington 57% vs. 60%
Okemo 21% vs. 54%
Stratton 33% vs. 49%
Whiteface 59% vs. 42%
Hunter 34% vs. 31%
Sunday River 26% vs. 39%
Sugarloaf 20% vs. 47%
Cannon 18% vs. 63%
Le Massif 20% vs. 75%
More terrain now only in New York State but in any case we westerners are jealous in view of the dumpster fire start to the season out here.

In season I use 90% of Jay's reported number, because at the end of the season I get lower mountain numbers that long term run about 80% of the upper. Before anyone is tempted down the rabbit hole of Jay's reporting, please read this exhaustive thread on the subject from 2014-15. To cut to the chase with an excellent scientific analysis by JSpin, start here. As for Jay's actual reporting, Powderfreak deconstructed that here.
 
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jasoncapecod said:
This is from Stowe’s site:
  • 50 inches of natural snow depth observed at the fabled Mount Mansfield Summit Stake. 30 inches above the average for this date and the second deepest depth ever recorded since records began in 1954.
  • They have had 88 inches so far this season.
  • Jay is reporting 146 inches. IMO Jay is flat out wrong.
Let’s hope the east can hold onto this pattern.
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The longer range forecast for the Northeast looks quite cold through X-Mas. No major warm-up/rain storms predicted, so we'll see if that holds. It's already quite good in southern NE (not as good as northern VT, though). We had about 5-6 inches in the last snow storm and it has been very cold (was 0 degrees at my house this morning in the Berkshires), so the ground is still covered with real snow (it looks like "Winter") and good snow-making weather for the local ski areas. Of course, we're beginning a construction project/addition on our house this week, so the cold temps are not good for that.
 
I think just before the holidays, the percentage of trails will increase dramatically. Most of the ski areas have blown a tremendous amount of snow and just haven’t groomed it out yet and awaiting for the holidays.
 
berkshireskier said:
The longer range forecast for the Northeast looks quite cold through X-Mas. No major warm-up/rain storms predicted, so we'll see if that holds.
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In addition to Tony with his spreadsheets, can anyone anecdotally confirm the last good northeastern December holiday? Even when the month starts well, it seems like things go in the tank Xmas week.
 
jamesdeluxe said:
In addition to Tony with his spreadsheets, can anyone anecdotally confirm the last good northeastern December holiday? Even when the month starts well, it seems like things go in the tank Xmas week.
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ALWAYS a risk in the Northeast. Cold and snow this early in the season is often a cruel tease and, many times, the weather pattern changes, and warmer temps and rain appear. I sort of hope so - I did not finish my Fall clean-up, thinking that I would still have time, based on past years. My bad.
 
berkshireskier said:
ALWAYS a risk in the Northeast. Cold and snow this early in the season is often a cruel tease and, many times, the weather pattern changes, and warmer temps and rain appear. I sort of hope so - I did not finish my Fall clean-up, thinking that I would still have time, based on past years. My bad.
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well i think ya jinxed us;) :cool: The long range GFS burns us up... oh well we could have been a contender
 
jasoncapecod said:
well i think ya jinxed us;) :cool: The long range GFS burns us up... oh well we could have been a contender
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As someone who has, more or less, given up on skiing in the Northeast, I (sort of) hope for an easy, warmer, and snowless Winter. I know that is sacrilege on this board but it's how I feel.
 
berkshireskier said:
As someone who has, more or less, given up on skiing in the Northeast, I (sort of) hope for an easy, warmer, and snowless Winter. I know that is sacrilege on this board but it's how I feel.
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Dude
I know how you feel
I’ve committed most of my energy toward mountain biking
But I really wanted a good season
 
Jay Peak was a bit of a disaster on opening day. The mountain heavily promoted 100 inches of snow to date, yet only was prepared to open the Jet Triple.

Unfortunately, the Jet Chair did not cooperate. Who knows what maintenance was like during its long receivership, but they should have had the kinks worked out of its only scheduled chairlift.


 
EMSC said:
Wow, that IG post is just brutal. That's one way to f-up your reputation as a business.
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Yes, I think Stowe did a lot better. But it was such a narrow slice of New England that received the heavy snow.

I also think it's a bit cruel to hype a once-in-a-generation snowfall, and then not be able to run a decent chairlift.
 
Jay's site says that it's the only ski area in the East that's 100% open. Given the situation out west, that must mean it's the only one at 100% in the country.
 
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