powderfreak
New member
Recent model data has changed to a decidedly more snow-friendly tune. As is
often the case in the fall and early winter, when cold fronts reach the
coast they increase the baroclinicity thanks to a mild ocean and cool land
temperatures. On Thursday morning, this temperature gradient and the
sharpening trough behind the cold front will spark a deepening low pressure
system off the coast of Southern New England...it will then track into the
Canadian Maritimes. The GFS holds the low closer to the New England
coastline and, thus provides a heavier snowfall, especially in Maine and New
Hampshire.
Low level temperatures are fairly mild and the low looks to deepen too late
too gather the necessary wind to transport surface cold air in before
precipitation shuts down. However, the 0C isotherm does sneak in down to
roughly 2,000ft on both the NAM and GFS, during the middle of the
precipitation event (say noon Thursday).
From the initial event, the heaviest snowfall will be from the SB/MRG area
northeastward with the White Mountains through western Maine picking up the
lion's share. I could envision 4-8" at elevation from Sugarloaf to Loon by
Friday morning with 2-5" across the central/northern Green Mountains above
2,000ft. Then, as the system moves northward and slams Fort Kent, ME, it
throws enough moisture southward to set off the orographic machines on
Friday. Cold air will be in place so accumulating snow showers are likely
even in some of the towns near the Green Mountain spine and in north central
VT. This looks like a 2-4" upslope event for the hills from SB northward by
Saturday morning...with 1-3" in northern NH/western ME.
Total New Snow by Saturday morning should be mainly 4-8" in the
central/northern Greens and 5-9 with isolated higher amounts across northern
NH and western ME. Remember this is mainly at some elevation and the
majority of population centers will remain below 3"...with larger valleys
(White River, CPV, etc) seeing little to no snow.
-Scott
ps: Still looks interesting early next week.
often the case in the fall and early winter, when cold fronts reach the
coast they increase the baroclinicity thanks to a mild ocean and cool land
temperatures. On Thursday morning, this temperature gradient and the
sharpening trough behind the cold front will spark a deepening low pressure
system off the coast of Southern New England...it will then track into the
Canadian Maritimes. The GFS holds the low closer to the New England
coastline and, thus provides a heavier snowfall, especially in Maine and New
Hampshire.
Low level temperatures are fairly mild and the low looks to deepen too late
too gather the necessary wind to transport surface cold air in before
precipitation shuts down. However, the 0C isotherm does sneak in down to
roughly 2,000ft on both the NAM and GFS, during the middle of the
precipitation event (say noon Thursday).
From the initial event, the heaviest snowfall will be from the SB/MRG area
northeastward with the White Mountains through western Maine picking up the
lion's share. I could envision 4-8" at elevation from Sugarloaf to Loon by
Friday morning with 2-5" across the central/northern Green Mountains above
2,000ft. Then, as the system moves northward and slams Fort Kent, ME, it
throws enough moisture southward to set off the orographic machines on
Friday. Cold air will be in place so accumulating snow showers are likely
even in some of the towns near the Green Mountain spine and in north central
VT. This looks like a 2-4" upslope event for the hills from SB northward by
Saturday morning...with 1-3" in northern NH/western ME.
Total New Snow by Saturday morning should be mainly 4-8" in the
central/northern Greens and 5-9 with isolated higher amounts across northern
NH and western ME. Remember this is mainly at some elevation and the
majority of population centers will remain below 3"...with larger valleys
(White River, CPV, etc) seeing little to no snow.
-Scott
ps: Still looks interesting early next week.
