COLDEST WINTER IN DECADES??
- Thread starter Bluebird Day
- Start date
I would be VERY skeptical of the proposed connection between "weak El Nino" and cold temps in the East. I may even have enough Mansfield Stake data to directly refute it. But most of it is on paper so I'm not planning to round it up.
Mike Bernstein
New member
Tony -Tony Crocker":2i1p2r4z said:
Why would Mansfield Stake data necessarily be able to refute the cold temps prediction? You can have an underwhelming stake reading resulting from too much cold almost as easily as you can from too little cold.
icelanticskier
New member
i was working at sunday river during that cold snowy winter of 93/94 and let me tell you, we got 9 feet of snow that jan with no thaw and for 3 days straight the high temps without windchill were 38, 40, and 42 below zero. since i could walk to work at jack frost ski shop at barker mountain from my house, i didn't even bother to start the car.
rog
rog
Bluebird Day
New member
Farmer's Almanac WINTER 2010 OUTLOOK: For what it's worth..... :dead horse:
-DECEMBER looks cool & Stormy for the PNW. The Great Lakes Look FRIGID to the bone, while the NE looks Chilly & WET/SNOWY. The Coastal SE looks Warm & WET, and the Mid Atlantic Looks Average in all aspects, while the SW Remains Warmer than Normal with slightly below average precip. Frigid across the US plains.
JANUARY looks WARMER & DRIER for the PNW, while the SW looks average in all aspects. The Great Lakes/Midwest look Absolutly BRUTAL, while the NE looks Stormy, along with the Middle atlantic. Snowfall is uncertain there. The SE looks Average away from the coast, and warm near the coast, with very wet weather conditions. Exception is the S PLains(including Texas) where Cool & Wet Weather should be the rule.
FEBUARY looks Warm for the PNW, with average precip. The Midwest & Lakes look once again Brutal. VERY COLD & SNOWY Northeast & Mid Atlantic, with possible Blizzard(s), very windy there as well. The SE US looks Cold to start, the Warming up. The SW looks Pleasant & possibly moist, while the Entire Heartland of the country looks Cold with average precip.
-DECEMBER looks cool & Stormy for the PNW. The Great Lakes Look FRIGID to the bone, while the NE looks Chilly & WET/SNOWY. The Coastal SE looks Warm & WET, and the Mid Atlantic Looks Average in all aspects, while the SW Remains Warmer than Normal with slightly below average precip. Frigid across the US plains.
JANUARY looks WARMER & DRIER for the PNW, while the SW looks average in all aspects. The Great Lakes/Midwest look Absolutly BRUTAL, while the NE looks Stormy, along with the Middle atlantic. Snowfall is uncertain there. The SE looks Average away from the coast, and warm near the coast, with very wet weather conditions. Exception is the S PLains(including Texas) where Cool & Wet Weather should be the rule.
FEBUARY looks Warm for the PNW, with average precip. The Midwest & Lakes look once again Brutal. VERY COLD & SNOWY Northeast & Mid Atlantic, with possible Blizzard(s), very windy there as well. The SE US looks Cold to start, the Warming up. The SW looks Pleasant & possibly moist, while the Entire Heartland of the country looks Cold with average precip.
Sorry I was unclear. The Mansfield Stake data includes daily temperature records.
I'm as skeptical of Farmers Almanac as the other long term (meaning more than a week or two) predictions. Note that there's nothing in that FA prediction that ties to El Nino.
Bluebird Day
New member
I think that the FA' predictions is tied to solar flares and rust spots on apple trees, or something like that. Kind of like picking stocks...
Hey, a repeat of 93-94 would be great, but just looking at records from the Mansfield stake is not necessarily a good barometer of how cold & snowy the Winter will be in general in the Northeast.
For instance, I can think of one year (perhaps a La Nina year?) in which Northern VT (Stow-Smuggs-Jay) made out quite well in terms of snowfall (rec'd help from unusually mild Lake Champlain temps, resulting in lake-enhanced snowfall for these resorts), but the Winter was largely a dud south & east of Rt 89.
While I do put some credence into the connection between a weak El-Nino and a cold, snowy Eastern Winter (at least compared to strong El Nino years, when mild Pacific air floods the country), I find it's very hard to predict the strength of El Nino several months out. If the predicted weak El Nino unexpected strengthens during the Winter, we could be in trouble.
Still, I like what I hear so far. And I'm hoping that we can spin up some big coastal storms which would draw extra energy from the anomalously warm water temps off the New Eng coast we've been seeing. :-k
For instance, I can think of one year (perhaps a La Nina year?) in which Northern VT (Stow-Smuggs-Jay) made out quite well in terms of snowfall (rec'd help from unusually mild Lake Champlain temps, resulting in lake-enhanced snowfall for these resorts), but the Winter was largely a dud south & east of Rt 89.
While I do put some credence into the connection between a weak El-Nino and a cold, snowy Eastern Winter (at least compared to strong El Nino years, when mild Pacific air floods the country), I find it's very hard to predict the strength of El Nino several months out. If the predicted weak El Nino unexpected strengthens during the Winter, we could be in trouble.
Still, I like what I hear so far. And I'm hoping that we can spin up some big coastal storms which would draw extra energy from the anomalously warm water temps off the New Eng coast we've been seeing. :-k
Patrick
Active member
sszycher":1os63cw0 said:
Very cold doesn't necessarily mean a great snow year. We were in the deep freeze for 5 weeks with many two flash very warm days all of sudden where it rained before temps went in the deep freeze again.
Remember that I had an amazing powder day at Stowe later in February or was in March? :-k