Declining snowfall, AI, UBI and the future of skiing…

[snowbird surfer]

Briefly, how does one plan for the following scenario:

AI commodifies cognition
30-50% of cognitive work is eliminated
UBI becomes a reality in developed economies
Climate change continues apace with lower snowfall totals and a greater share of precipitation as rain
Abundance (time/resources) and powder scarcity collide

Now what?

Are we facing a LCC scenario everywhere? That is, an over crowded powder frenzy across the alps? In this scenario, what European locations offer the best experience with north facing high elevation powder potential and barriers that limit access and therefore result in relatively lower skier density? If feasible, where should one purchase? Or will we all be renting sprinters and following storms?

Practical advice is very much appreciated!

 

[Tony Crocker]

I suggest you read a Vanat Report www.vanat.ch. European skier visitation has been stagnant for decades due to low birth rates and demographic trends. 2022 report is downloadable. Later reports require payment.

There are marginal low altitude places in Europe that won’t last. ChrisC saw some of those around Gstaad recently.

I have analyzed North America climate impacts extensively. Search on FTO for my FWSA presentation in June 2025.

I apologize when not including links when on my phone, which will be most of the time before I get home from Spain Aug. 19.

We just had a very nice day in Biarritz which is maybe 100 miles south of the big fire near Bordeaux. Smoke is not blowing our direction; we actually had a bit of rain early this morning and more in the afternoon in Bilbao two days ago. Countryside is green around here and there’s some humidity, so not the extreme summer dry climate farther south. Next 3 days are in the Pyrenees.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Are we facing a LCC scenario everywhere? That is, an over crowded powder frenzy across the alps?

How many decades in the future with rampant climate change are you talking about where only the ski areas/resorts at the highest elevation are still operating?

what European locations offer the best experience with north facing high elevation powder potential

We've all had moments at industrial resorts where the groomed autobahns back to major lifts are like the BQE at rush hour but offpiste? Has anyone here ever faced a LCC-level offpiste goatf**k in the Alps or anything even remotely close to it requiring

barriers that limit access and therefore result in relatively lower skier density?

 

[Tony Crocker]

FWSA transcript is here.

 

[Tony Crocker]

How many decades in the future with rampant climate change are you talking about

Many when you realize the rate is around 0.2C per decade and a 1C temperature increase raises the average snow line 500 feet. Thus the example I cited that it would take a 3C increase for Mammoth to get the proportion of rain that Palisades gets now.

 

[jimk]

Personally, I'm going to deal with climate change by dying, because I don't see it being a show stopper by the time I croak during the next couple of decades. Over the last dozen years I've mostly skied in UT and primarily at Snowbird. I feel pretty good that if anywhere is going to continue to have good skiing it will be Utah. As a retired person, I can cherry pick my days and times for skiing in LCC and I still find 85% of winter days to be very manageable and fun there. And be careful what you wish for, because in the extremely snowy, record year of 2023 traffic and crowds were terrible. You can't have your cake and eat it too, at least not on great ski terrain 35 minutes from a major airport
Additionally, before Utah I skied for 50 years in the mid-Atlantic US and I felt that advancements in snowmaking kept pace with any decreases in natural snowfall there. In fact, if anything, the quality of ski surfaces became better and more consistent/predictable than decades ago in that part of the country.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Stuart has the same perspective as JimK from growing up in the Midwest and now living in NYC. It’s all about snowmaking improvements. I have to remind these people that large western ski areas rarely have more that a quarter of acreage under snowmaking and minimal advanced/expert terrain.

I will say that in places like LCC not only JimK but also his son will have little concern about long term snow conditions in their lifetimes.