powderfreak
New member
This morning's NWS discussion from the Albany office is fantastic; one of the best I've read in a while that includes the long wave pattern and its implications. Split flow, polar jet north of us, subtropical south of us that likes to make visits to us more than the Polar jet this winter. Tonight, some light snow across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains...very little if any QPF but temps are cold through the column so fluff factor could be very high. 1-2" of dust could fall. Next system on Monday is progged on the 12z models to track further north and possible keep the heaviest snowfall (3-5") north of the Canadian border. Although the low is weak, it looks to have a decent pressure gradient bringing in cold air on a NW flow. I could see a period of upslope snowfall in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains behind the low that could make up for any initial track problems. Anyway, so chance of snow tonight, snow likely on Monday and Monday night...after that, Albany is throwing out any significant precipitation on Wed-Fri time frame for the reasons listed in the discussion. However, I actually do think we will see a more significant precipitation event later next week as a lot of ensembles bring in some fairly chilly air on Monday night and into Tuesday with a building high pressure. The last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been flip flopping on the surface...but aloft its been fairly similar with a lot of energy entering the southern stream and digging in response to ridging of the Polar jet over western Canada. Even on today's water vapor loop, it can be seen that there is more amplification over the Rockies than previously thought...thus, I didn't think precipitation would make it into Utah or Colorado this weekend and now it looks to enter northern areas of those states (and possibly even further south?) by later on Sunday into Monday.
Of course it will change, but what I'm thinking is that if we get a shot of cold air following the low on Monday night (say if Tuesday is colder than forecasted here in the north country) then this will be in response to more amplification and backing of the Polar Jet out west. That energy will need to dig southward but there still is no large scale teleconnections (like a -NAO) that would stop this energy from aiming right at the northeast....thus a mixed precipitation event would take place. My main concern at this point is not for a snowstorm Wed-Fri time frame, but a nice little everything falls from the sky type of storm. The subtropical jet looks to win this winter...
-Scott
Here's Albany's discussion:
WORKZONES ON THE STREET. FINAL PRODUCTS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY BRING A SHOT OF CHILLY POLAR AIR. THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW...OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW YORK
STATE ON MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A BIFURCATION BETWEEN THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM CONTINUES...PREVENTING BIG STORMS
AND ANY REAL ARCTIC AIR FROM REACHING THE NORTHEAST CONUS. UNLIKE
THE PAST WEEK...THE SOUTHERN JET IS WEAK AT THAT MOMENT.
THE BIGGER WEATHER PICTURE INDICATES A WEAKLY +NAO (LOWER PRESSURE
OVER ICELAND/GREENLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES) WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MEAN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL HEAD ESE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND
MOVE RIGHT ALBANY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL ONLY TAP A LITTLE OF IT FROM THE CHILLY GREAT LAKE WATERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WE WENT
LIKELY...BUT KEEP IT CHANCE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WITH POLAR AIR
(FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN) TO WORK WITH...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE ALL SNOW.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SW...BE A LITTLE DEEPER AND OFFER
A BIT MORE MOISTURE. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IN FACT...AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY MIGHT NOT
SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND REALLY NO AREA SHOULD
SEE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS. THIS LOW WILL PULL SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR
BACK OVER THE REGION AS ITS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...SO
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY STARTING AS ALL SNOW...WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FROM ALBANY SOUTH AS MONDAY WEARS ON.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODELS HAVE APPARENTLY
FLIPPED FLOP AGAIN REGARDING THE EXTENDED. LAST NIGHT...THEY
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD SET UP SHOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ASSERT
ITS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE LATER RUNS APPARENTLY PROGGED
A TROUGH OR SURFACE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THREATENING THE AREA WITH PERHAPS MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW). HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS AND
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS HAVE NO SUCH SYSTEM AND DEFACTO BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAKES METEOROLOGICAL
SENSE SINCE AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC JET IS IN THE
PROCESS OF RELOADING AND NOT OFFERING MUCH CYCLONIC ENERGY ATTM.
DECIDED TO REMOVE EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PCPN TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...COMPLIANCE IS STILL THERE ON POPS SINCE WITH 14
VERSUS UP TO AROUND 30 IN SURROUNDING OFFICES. DID NOT TINKER WITH
ANY OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED (DAYS
6/7) ALONE. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE NAO LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
POSITIVELY BIASED AND EVENTUALLY A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
THE WEST (-PNA) WHICH COULD BRING AN EVEN MILDER SHOT OF AIR OUR WAY
BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WENT CLOSE TO THE MAV NOS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. LEANED MORE
WITH THE GFS POPS.
Of course it will change, but what I'm thinking is that if we get a shot of cold air following the low on Monday night (say if Tuesday is colder than forecasted here in the north country) then this will be in response to more amplification and backing of the Polar Jet out west. That energy will need to dig southward but there still is no large scale teleconnections (like a -NAO) that would stop this energy from aiming right at the northeast....thus a mixed precipitation event would take place. My main concern at this point is not for a snowstorm Wed-Fri time frame, but a nice little everything falls from the sky type of storm. The subtropical jet looks to win this winter...
-Scott
Here's Albany's discussion:
WORKZONES ON THE STREET. FINAL PRODUCTS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY BRING A SHOT OF CHILLY POLAR AIR. THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW...OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW YORK
STATE ON MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A BIFURCATION BETWEEN THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM CONTINUES...PREVENTING BIG STORMS
AND ANY REAL ARCTIC AIR FROM REACHING THE NORTHEAST CONUS. UNLIKE
THE PAST WEEK...THE SOUTHERN JET IS WEAK AT THAT MOMENT.
THE BIGGER WEATHER PICTURE INDICATES A WEAKLY +NAO (LOWER PRESSURE
OVER ICELAND/GREENLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES) WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MEAN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL HEAD ESE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND
MOVE RIGHT ALBANY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL ONLY TAP A LITTLE OF IT FROM THE CHILLY GREAT LAKE WATERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WE WENT
LIKELY...BUT KEEP IT CHANCE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WITH POLAR AIR
(FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN) TO WORK WITH...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE ALL SNOW.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SW...BE A LITTLE DEEPER AND OFFER
A BIT MORE MOISTURE. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BE NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IN FACT...AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY MIGHT NOT
SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND REALLY NO AREA SHOULD
SEE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS. THIS LOW WILL PULL SOME MILDER PACIFIC AIR
BACK OVER THE REGION AS ITS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...SO
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY STARTING AS ALL SNOW...WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FROM ALBANY SOUTH AS MONDAY WEARS ON.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MODELS HAVE APPARENTLY
FLIPPED FLOP AGAIN REGARDING THE EXTENDED. LAST NIGHT...THEY
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD SET UP SHOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ASSERT
ITS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE LATER RUNS APPARENTLY PROGGED
A TROUGH OR SURFACE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THREATENING THE AREA WITH PERHAPS MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW). HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS AND
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS HAVE NO SUCH SYSTEM AND DEFACTO BUILD A
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAKES METEOROLOGICAL
SENSE SINCE AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC JET IS IN THE
PROCESS OF RELOADING AND NOT OFFERING MUCH CYCLONIC ENERGY ATTM.
DECIDED TO REMOVE EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PCPN TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...COMPLIANCE IS STILL THERE ON POPS SINCE WITH 14
VERSUS UP TO AROUND 30 IN SURROUNDING OFFICES. DID NOT TINKER WITH
ANY OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED (DAYS
6/7) ALONE. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE NAO LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
POSITIVELY BIASED AND EVENTUALLY A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
THE WEST (-PNA) WHICH COULD BRING AN EVEN MILDER SHOT OF AIR OUR WAY
BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WENT CLOSE TO THE MAV NOS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. LEANED MORE
WITH THE GFS POPS.