Economy and NE Ski Industry Outlook for 09/10

I have said before that there is a difference between "quality is better at area X than Area Y" and "it's so bad that it's not worth skiing."

When Geoff has skiing out his front door at zero marginal cost, of course it makes sense to do it nearly every day, regardless of conditions. It beats working or going to the gym, no argument there.

This is a different question for the more typical skier who lives in a metro area and has to spend $ and/or vacation time to ski. The higher the cost in time and $, the more "quality" should factor into the equation. Particularly if work/family commitments limit you to 25 days a season (true for me from 1984-1996).
 
Tony Crocker":10pfyfew said:
When Geoff has skiing out his front door at zero marginal cost, of course it makes sense to do it nearly every day, regardless of conditions. It beats working or going to the gym, no argument there.
That seems to be the case for Geoff, but it may not be the case for everyone. There are days when I would much rather be doing something like catching up on work, doing another outdoor activity, or simply relaxing indoors rather than skiing. An extreme example of this would be after a thaw-freeze when the trails are glare ice, the temperature is -10 F, there’s a 30 MPH wind, and all the terrain I’d like to ski is closed anyway because it’s too dangerous to be on it. In reality there’s a gradient of conditions that come together to make the skiing less than optimal, but of the list above, the only one that is a real deal breaker for me is the condition of the snow. The cold, wind, or even closed trails (for whatever reason) can easily be avoided to a large degree by simply popping on ones skins and heading off into the local backcountry. You stay nice and warm as you skin, a properly chosen aspect with trees will take care of any wind issues, and the status of the lifts is about as irrelevant as it can get. But, there’s no getting around snow conditions if there has been an extensive thaw-freeze without additional snow.

I get it that some people are into skiing ice and enjoy the thrill of carving on a really hard surface, but that has very little appeal to me. I suspect that relative to most of the folks that frequent this forum, I’m really not all that into “skiing” in general. I like getting out in the winter, exploring the off-piste areas, the sidecountry, the backcountry, skiing some powder, some steeps, carving some turns in packed powder or corn etc. I’m not sure how much of a JFSer I ever was, aside from when I was a kid and hardly had a concept of one surface condition from another, but I’m certainly not a JFSer at this point, and I think I’m becoming less of a JFSer every day. I have no problem simply staying off the skis for a week or so if the conditions don’t interest me.

If I can get dozens and dozens of ski outings each season on great to fantastic conditions, it seems pointless to simply drag myself out on the slopes to ski those additional few days (especially at the expense of getting other constructive things done) on what to me are horrible conditions, just because I’m supposedly a skier and therefore I have to be skiing. I realize that many of the skiers on this forum are fanatics, and for them the concept of not skiing when there’s any kind of snow on the ground is probably sacrilegious, so here are a few analogies to explain what it’s like for some of the rest of us. It's like choosing to go swimming when it's 60 F outside and the water is in the 50s F, or voluntarily going hiking or camping when it’s going to pour rain for three days, or playing basketball outside on a cold day in the middle of a northern winter. Sure one CAN do these things under these conditions, but why are they doing it? As far as voluntarily skiing when the conditions are “poor”, there can be various reasoning… “I enjoy these conditions” (maybe that’s true), “I’m not a fair weather skier – REAL skiers ski regardless of the conditions”, “These conditions make me appreciate the good days”, “I don’t have anything else to do”, “I’ve got a streak going”, or “I ski every day” etc. etc. None of these things really relate to me at this point.

Now we’re not talking about people on a destination trip that are locked into a specific time and location, or somebody who showed up at the mountain thinking the conditions would be good and ended up with crap, this is about voluntarily JFSing on what most people would consider horrible conditions. There’s a very long list of things I’d rather do. I think JFSing is great to support the spirit of skiing, but even at zero additional monetary cost and essentially zero additional time cost beyond the actual skiing, there are still those of us that aren’t into it.

-J
 
Based on the revenue/skier visits from last ski season, the summer and season pass sales all indicators point to a uptick for this coming ski season, IMHO. This year is my 25th year in the ski resort business, I did take a few off living in Maine and working at LL Bean.

Last winter was a pretty good season despite the crazy rain over the xmas holiday season. We did benefit from the down economy and stock market in that folks pulled back on expensive trips out west for weekends in New England. This past summer Here in Vermont season passes sales are up from many resorts.

News reports are saying that the terrible weather during June and July had the numbers down but the great weather as of late are putting this summer above average. State Park visits are up and the resorts have been busy during August and so far in Sept. Unreal weather for this past Labor Day weekend. My old friends in Jackson tell me that the summer has not been as busy as it usually is.

If we get a decent ski season with good snow I think we will have a very good season businesswise.
 
Bushwacker,

Great photo gallery. I have family in Wilson, Wy and love going out to visit, and ski of course. You really caught some great images of the Tetons.

BBD
 
By doing the quantity you get quality along the way.

The more days you go, the more good days you get.

I am on mountain like Geoff. So I go every chance I get 70 to 80 days a year. I go out no matter what. When you take into account costs though, having a place in the mountain area is really more manageable than one thinks. Just a choice of how one spends money and time.

At the river I know people who have trailers, ski shares. I know people who have huge houses. The costs can be controlled/ limited. Some ski shares are $1500. The average person spends more than that on a vacation a year. I don't. All the spare money goes in winter activities. The time and family is the hard part. You have to decide its what you want to do. 7 hours in a car every weekend and no weekend kids sports. It is work to get all on board.

Having a place in the mountains and ski passes and equipment is comparable to a Disney vacation a year.
 
By doing the quantity you get quality along the way.
Not necessarily. Geoff and BobR are locked into specific places, but they are places with high reliability relative to most in their region. JSpin and icelantic clearly have quality standards and go more when it's good and have a "not worth skiing" threshold where they would rather sit it out. Then you have joegm, who is locked into a less reliable place and the impression from his reports is that the quality/quantity ratio is quite low even though he skis a lot.

The time and family is the hard part. You have to decide its what you want to do. 7 hours in a car every weekend and no weekend kids sports.
This was certainly a reason for my emphasis on quality during the family years. My avid skiing son had 3 choir practices a week, one on Sunday with no more than 2 absences permitted a year. I chose those 2 Sundays carefully to get the biggest skiing bang for the time and $ expended. The family obligations are going to limit ski time in most cases. So it's worth putting an emphasis on quality, especially if you want the rest of the family to be on board for future ski trips. This whole area is where I have my biggest disagreements with Patrick. If you get the quality skiing and the rest of your family doesn't, they will lose interest in skiing or at least give it a lower priority. The long term consequences of that are not good.
 
BobR":2am5fo3r said:
By doing the quantity you get quality along the way.

The more days you go, the more good days you get.

I am on mountain like Geoff. So I go every chance I get 70 to 80 days a year. I go out no matter what. When you take into account costs though, having a place in the mountain area is really more manageable than one thinks. Just a choice of how one spends money and time.

At the river I know people who have trailers, ski shares. I know people who have huge houses. The costs can be controlled/ limited. Some ski shares are $1500. The average person spends more than that on a vacation a year. I don't. All the spare money goes in winter activities. The time and family is the hard part. You have to decide its what you want to do. 7 hours in a car every weekend and no weekend kids sports. It is work to get all on board.

Having a place in the mountains and ski passes and equipment is comparable to a Disney vacation a year.

Back when I was doing the share house thing, I'd strike up conversations in the bar with tourists who were in town for a week. I often got a lot of questions about costs. I had my own bedroom on the Access Road and a season pass for less than they paid for their condo and day tickets. Automobile was a much bigger expense than season pass or a room for the season. The Vermont state school tax has pushed rental costs up some but season pass prices are cheaper than they used to be so the economics are similar. Rental housing is a much better value in Maine.
 
My nh place is cheaper for housing. I moved to the River to due to the increased costs at Loon for the pass. It was a value thing. SR is much more for housing and passes were more before Boyne took over Loon. I skied everything I wanted to by noon at Loon.

Sr costs more, but was a better value. Longer Season better snow and on mountain housing options. Gets back to kids don't always want to ski. My son and I are the ones who go out no matter what.

My wife and daughter like to sleep in or blow it off if they don't feel like going out, a much better value money wise and family wise. Dollars can't equate to I don't want to go I am tired and cold. They can also go out for two hours and then hang at the pool or watch tv. With the price of gas... We take 1 car to Sr instead of two cars to Loon. We eat in more to save on food. I rent my place to friends a couple times a year.

Again its a mind set.

Vermont was just out of my price range for the same things. Its closer and I grew up there. I chose what I could afford.

I still say if you go many days you get many good days.
 
J.Spin":2ngsukfc said:
It looks like Bolton Valley will be running the Timberline Quad more frequently for the upcoming season based on a blurb in their most recent email newsletter from Friday:

Timberline Will Operate 7 Days Per Week

The big news for this week is the announcement that the
Timberline quad will run seven days per week. It went something like this: "We are going to run Timberline seven days per week next year." said George B. Potter. Simple and to the point, but very exciting none the less. The lodge will be open too so you can start your day there. In addition to making people happy it will extend my lunch break as I make it all the way over to Timberline to get the precious photo of the day. And, more skiing for me generally equals more skiing for you.

I’m not sure what part economics played in this decision, but it certainly doesn’t seem like the kind of move the resort would make if there was a lot of trouble on the financial front. I don’t know what Bolton’s visitor numbers/financials were for last season, but if they were decent, it may have been a function of the phenomenon discussed in this thread, where people are doing more local skiing since they don’t want the expense of a big trip.
The other day, I happened onto a First Tracks news article covering this season's upgrades at the various Vermont resorts, and gained some additional insight into the change in the new Timberline lift schedule when I read this:

Adding snowmaking to Cobrass has prompted Bolton officials to run the Timberline quad every day during the 2009-10 season. In the past, Timberline was only open on weekends and holiday periods. "We're adding some key snowmaking to the Cobrass trail that connects the main mountain with Timberline, providing easier access," said Potter. "Timberline has great skiing and riding and we're excited to have it open every day for the season."

So clearly this upgrade played at least a part in the decision to run Timberline seven days a week. Much of Cobrass is reasonably sheltered, and added snowmaking will certainly be good for touch ups there, but the area of the trail where more snowmaking would be most helpful would be the first steep, south-facing pitch of the trail. That pitch sometimes gets blasted by the wind, and that combined with its steepness means that it doesn't seem to hold up to skier traffic as well as the rest of the trail, so I hope they work hard on that section.

-J
 
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