El Nino 2026-27?
- Thread starter Sbooker
- Start date
"The Blob" was a phenomenon of persistent high pressure along with the warm water that was the primary factor in California's worst ever 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons in succession, barely nosing out 1975-76 plus 1976-77. 2013-14 was neutral and 2014-15 was weak El Nino.
El Nino has a reputation of drier weather in Australia, which presumably means increased fire risk.
As for the hype over the upcoming northern winter, the whole point of El Nino as a weather predictor is that it tends to be stable from about August to February. Since the northern spring is when El Nino is least stable, I have historically been skeptical of early predictions. However the history does show a "momentum" factor. The ONI Index has moved from -0.4 three months ago to +0.5 now. The other comparably large moves from negative to positive in this February to May timeframe were in 1957, 1965, 1972, 1997 and 2023. The ensuing December ONI values were +1.5, +2.0, +2.1, +2.4 and +2.0. So yes I'm inclined to believe the predictions this time.
My analysis of El Nino for North America's ski areas is here. I generally do not rewrite that page until there are significant El Nino of La Nina seasons to add. The past two ski seasons have been close to neutral.
El Nino has a reputation of drier weather in Australia, which presumably means increased fire risk.
As for the hype over the upcoming northern winter, the whole point of El Nino as a weather predictor is that it tends to be stable from about August to February. Since the northern spring is when El Nino is least stable, I have historically been skeptical of early predictions. However the history does show a "momentum" factor. The ONI Index has moved from -0.4 three months ago to +0.5 now. The other comparably large moves from negative to positive in this February to May timeframe were in 1957, 1965, 1972, 1997 and 2023. The ensuing December ONI values were +1.5, +2.0, +2.1, +2.4 and +2.0. So yes I'm inclined to believe the predictions this time.
My analysis of El Nino for North America's ski areas is here. I generally do not rewrite that page until there are significant El Nino of La Nina seasons to add. The past two ski seasons have been close to neutral.
Last edited:
EMSC
Well-known member
Interesting analysis for Colorado. Prior to looking at that, my memory had been that southern edge of Colo favored by El Nino and northern edge of Colo favored by La Nina. With no real pattern for the rest of the state. However looking at the data the % of increas/favored is much less than I would expect for either scenario and also seem to be less of a pattern (eg crested butte favored by la nina despite being more southern, monarch and purgatory not favored by el nino despite being pretty far south), etc...
So for at least Colo seems like we should mostly expect something within ~5%+/- of average for either scenario with only one or two exceptions. However, it seems like Taos or Arizona Snowbowl , etc... are pretty good bets for above average seasons though.
It is counterintuitive but even when you get on the south side of the San Juan Mts. at Purgatory and Wolf Creek, there is still no evidence of favor to El Niño.