El Nino 2026-27?
- Thread starter Sbooker
- Start date
"The Blob" was a phenomenon of persistent high pressure along with the warm water that was the primary factor in California's worst ever 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons in succession, barely nosing out 1975-76 plus 1976-77. 2013-14 was neutral and 2014-15 was weak El Nino.
El Nino has a reputation of drier weather in Australia, which presumably means increased fire risk.
As for the hype over the upcoming northern winter, the whole point of El Nino as a weather predictor is that it tends to be stable from about August to February. Since the northern spring is when El Nino is least stable, I have historically been skeptical of early predictions. However the history does show a "momentum" factor. The ONI Index has moved from -0.4 three months ago to +0.5 now. The other comparably large moves from negative to positive in this February to May timeframe were in 1957, 1965, 1972, 1997 and 2023. The ensuing December ONI values were +1.5, +2.0, +2.1, +2.4 and +2.0. So yes I'm inclined to believe the predictions this time.
My analysis of El Nino for North America's ski areas is here. I generally do not rewrite that page until there are significant El Nino of La Nina seasons to add. The past two ski seasons have been close to neutral.
El Nino has a reputation of drier weather in Australia, which presumably means increased fire risk.
As for the hype over the upcoming northern winter, the whole point of El Nino as a weather predictor is that it tends to be stable from about August to February. Since the northern spring is when El Nino is least stable, I have historically been skeptical of early predictions. However the history does show a "momentum" factor. The ONI Index has moved from -0.4 three months ago to +0.5 now. The other comparably large moves from negative to positive in this February to May timeframe were in 1957, 1965, 1972, 1997 and 2023. The ensuing December ONI values were +1.5, +2.0, +2.1, +2.4 and +2.0. So yes I'm inclined to believe the predictions this time.
My analysis of El Nino for North America's ski areas is here. I generally do not rewrite that page until there are significant El Nino of La Nina seasons to add. The past two ski seasons have been close to neutral.
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