powderfreak
New member
Alright folks, trying to put together the pieces to get a column together
and while I want to wait till Saturday for a final forecast (48hrs lead time
is what I like for a final product), I'm trying to get something together
for a post tomorrow for those coming up over the holiday weekend. Still
several details to work out, track and strength of the arctic air the main
problems at this juncture. Thus, precip type is what I'm trying to sort
out. I feel the total liquid precip for each area will be the easy part but
where it snows, sleets, ices, or rains is a tough call. Here's my prelim
thinking and we are talking mostly a Monday event and possibly stretching
into Monday night. Full effects will likely not be felt till Tuesday
morning at the mountains so if you're looking for powder, have MLK day off,
maybe watch this thing and make back up plans to call in sick on Tuesday if
it snows a foot:
My gut is telling me the 6" southern boundary runs from Gore Mountain to
Killington to Sunday River with sleet mixed in. Best shot at a 10-12"
snowfall would include Whiteface, SB, MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay,
Cannon, and Sugarloaf. Those should mix with sleet for a time with the
exception of Whiteface, Jay, and Sugarloaf which might be far enough north
to avoid the warm nose aloft when the low approaches. Personal experience
would lead me to believe the Green Mountain spine resorts see highest
snowfall especially if the low deepens as it passes. Model QPF might be low
but NNW flow behind the low can keep mod snow going for several hours along
the spine after deeper moisture has left the region. Another thing is some
of the GFS panels have been showing ripe conditions for some Champlain
Valley convergence behind the system...but haven't checked any lake
parameters for enhancement into northern Addison County. Either way, I think
the northern spine picks up a couple more inches than modeled QPF would make
one believe.
Possibly significant icing occurs in the Saratoga/Lake George region of NY,
Mohawk Valley, northern Capital District, southern VT, northern Berkshires
west through the northern MA border and into southern NH. Someone's going
to see marginally damaging ice out of this.
-Scott
and while I want to wait till Saturday for a final forecast (48hrs lead time
is what I like for a final product), I'm trying to get something together
for a post tomorrow for those coming up over the holiday weekend. Still
several details to work out, track and strength of the arctic air the main
problems at this juncture. Thus, precip type is what I'm trying to sort
out. I feel the total liquid precip for each area will be the easy part but
where it snows, sleets, ices, or rains is a tough call. Here's my prelim
thinking and we are talking mostly a Monday event and possibly stretching
into Monday night. Full effects will likely not be felt till Tuesday
morning at the mountains so if you're looking for powder, have MLK day off,
maybe watch this thing and make back up plans to call in sick on Tuesday if
it snows a foot:
My gut is telling me the 6" southern boundary runs from Gore Mountain to
Killington to Sunday River with sleet mixed in. Best shot at a 10-12"
snowfall would include Whiteface, SB, MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay,
Cannon, and Sugarloaf. Those should mix with sleet for a time with the
exception of Whiteface, Jay, and Sugarloaf which might be far enough north
to avoid the warm nose aloft when the low approaches. Personal experience
would lead me to believe the Green Mountain spine resorts see highest
snowfall especially if the low deepens as it passes. Model QPF might be low
but NNW flow behind the low can keep mod snow going for several hours along
the spine after deeper moisture has left the region. Another thing is some
of the GFS panels have been showing ripe conditions for some Champlain
Valley convergence behind the system...but haven't checked any lake
parameters for enhancement into northern Addison County. Either way, I think
the northern spine picks up a couple more inches than modeled QPF would make
one believe.
Possibly significant icing occurs in the Saratoga/Lake George region of NY,
Mohawk Valley, northern Capital District, southern VT, northern Berkshires
west through the northern MA border and into southern NH. Someone's going
to see marginally damaging ice out of this.
-Scott