Hunter

Spent the day at Hunter Monday. They groomed everything..which was a good thing. The guns came on around 9 and they blasted racers edge, Hellgate, mainline to kennedy and east side...These new guns blow some pretty dry "snow" that mixed with the natural snow made for a pretty good surface. Its quite a change from the ice that used to form, this was very carveable. They even groomed Clairs, but it was pretty slick in some spots. Nice moguls where forming by noon so I stayed until 3. All the rails where in decent shape, no bare spots. They should be in great shape by the weekend.
And yes Marc I do read the reports..I just don't take them as fact..anything happens here..as you know.
 
The manmade base (Hunter) is more durable than the natural base (MRG) after rain or thaw events. Big Bear had 4 days rain, the 1-2 feet snow and reopened with more open runs than before the rain.

rfarren is learning the lessons of Utah snow volatility as I did. In 100+ days of Utah skiing over ~25 seasons I averaged 55% of expected snowfall. The last 2 seasons of full weeks at the Iron Blosam have been almost exactly average. Al Solish commented "It's about time you bought your own place here." :lol:

MarcC":1trd55mf said:
anecdotally (since I have no data to back it up), it seems that Jan is the least reliable month for new snow in the Wasatch.
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The data does not back it up. Alta 44-year monthly averages and standard deviations:
Nov. 76.76 43.49
Dec. 97.74 48.38
Jan. 96.57 40.76
Feb. 88.41 27.12
Mar. 92.95 34.78
Apr. 76.53 36.41

Furthermore the past 3 Alta Januaries:
2008 178.5
2009 119.0
2010 111.5
But last year nearly all of that came after my 4 day visit Jan. 15-18

MarcC is recalling:
2003 30.5
2007 36.0
Which are the 2 driest Januaries of those 44 years.

MarcC":1trd55mf said:
there's still a 25% chance of no new snow during any given week?
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25% chance of no days with 6+ inches, AND
another 25% chance of just one 6+ day and no 12+ days
This statistical exercise viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6822 demonstrates how "streaks" such as mine and rfarren's can happen.
 
Tony Crocker":26akfo69 said:
MarcC":26akfo69 said:
anecdotally (since I have no data to back it up), it seems that Jan is the least reliable month for new snow in the Wasatch.
Click to expand...
The data does not back it up. Alta 44-year monthly averages and standard deviations:
Nov. 76.76 43.49
Dec. 97.74 48.38
Jan. 96.57 40.76
Feb. 88.41 27.12
Mar. 92.95 34.78
Apr. 76.53 36.41

Furthermore the past 3 Alta Januaries:
2008 178.5
2009 119.0
2010 111.5
But last year nearly all of that came after my 4 day visit Jan. 15-18

MarcC is recalling:
2003 30.5
2007 36.0
Which are the 2 driest Januaries of those 44 years.
Click to expand...

The more important point I was making (in the next paragraph of my post) is that while Jan overall has reliable snow, much of it falls either at the beginning or end of the month. Thus, over the past 10 years, the middle ~3 weeks of January have been relatively dry, hence my reliability comment. Tony alludes to this in his comment about last year: "...nearly all of that came after my 4 day visit..."
 
I am firmly convinced that there is nothing in climatology that could produce a long term trend or bias of
MarcC":19tq6emu said:
the middle ~3 weeks of January have been relatively dry
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relative to early or late January. Coincidence, not cause and effect.

Alta's daily data only goes back to 2004-05. I could crawl through 20+ years of Mammoth or Steamboat daily data, but I don't have the time for awhile.
 
Tony Crocker":32e1xy69 said:
Coincidence, not cause and effect.
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Never suggested otherwise, and it is only for the past 10 years of direct experience. Plus, there was a widespread drought in the intermountain west for the first 5 of those years.
 
My simple formula for getting powder on every visit......wait for it to puke..call Mark...book flight and hotel.....this is one of the few trips I have planned in advance due to the avi course...but its at the end of Jan...so hopefully Marcs theory holds true....
 
kingslug":jdzqtf9b said:
.....this is one of the few trips I have planned in advance due to the avi course...but its at the end of Jan...so hopefully Marcs theory holds true....
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To paraphrase all the investment folks - past weather results are no guarantee of future performance.
 
berkshireskier":11ygxdq0 said:
Yea, how did this forum thread go from conditions at Hunter to snowfall history patterns at Alta??
#-o
Click to expand...

And for once I had nothing to do with it.
 
berkshireskier":2qegxqt9 said:
Yea, how did this forum thread go from conditions at Hunter to snowfall history patterns at Alta??
Click to expand...
There's no fighting it. You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
 
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