powderfreak
New member
Just got back from a couple days in the Adirondacks...was severely
disappointed with the last storm and am sorry for the poor forecast. Will
elaborate in the next day in the blog about why this happened but it doesn't
really matter; it never really snowed except for some front end loaded wet
snow followed by ice (4-5" of snow in the central 'Dacks, followed by many
hours of 30F rain to start sagging the tree branches) and plain rain.
That's not my concern. Been looking over a lot of model data from the past
24 hours and sweet jesus could we be in for some problems New Year's day. A
very strong high pressure to the north, light northerly surface winds with
cold air drainage, and a very strong southerly wind flow between 4K-9K feet.
Throw in a slow moving cut-off upper level low and we're looking at one
heck of an ice storm. We just cannot keep the mid-levels cold enough for
snow this season but its the time of year when the surface temps are heading
towards their coldest. Either way, will have more tonight or tomorrow but
right now I'm looking at what could be a fairly serious freezing rain storm
Sunday night-early Tuesday time frame. Saving grace here is the cold layer
at the surface might be thick enough to allow rain to refreeze before
contact with ground so it could just be a lot of sleet (ice pellets).
Several reports the past couple storm systems of border-line significant
icing following warming aloft from the Catskills to the NE Kingdom of
VT...could it be a sign of things to come? Will this winter never give us a
break and once we *think* we are cold enough at the surface, throw
curveballs with warming aloft? Does ice make a good base?
-Scott
disappointed with the last storm and am sorry for the poor forecast. Will
elaborate in the next day in the blog about why this happened but it doesn't
really matter; it never really snowed except for some front end loaded wet
snow followed by ice (4-5" of snow in the central 'Dacks, followed by many
hours of 30F rain to start sagging the tree branches) and plain rain.
That's not my concern. Been looking over a lot of model data from the past
24 hours and sweet jesus could we be in for some problems New Year's day. A
very strong high pressure to the north, light northerly surface winds with
cold air drainage, and a very strong southerly wind flow between 4K-9K feet.
Throw in a slow moving cut-off upper level low and we're looking at one
heck of an ice storm. We just cannot keep the mid-levels cold enough for
snow this season but its the time of year when the surface temps are heading
towards their coldest. Either way, will have more tonight or tomorrow but
right now I'm looking at what could be a fairly serious freezing rain storm
Sunday night-early Tuesday time frame. Saving grace here is the cold layer
at the surface might be thick enough to allow rain to refreeze before
contact with ground so it could just be a lot of sleet (ice pellets).
Several reports the past couple storm systems of border-line significant
icing following warming aloft from the Catskills to the NE Kingdom of
VT...could it be a sign of things to come? Will this winter never give us a
break and once we *think* we are cold enough at the surface, throw
curveballs with warming aloft? Does ice make a good base?
-Scott
