June 13-15, Far West Ski Assn. Palm Springs and Climb San Jacinto

jamesdeluxe said:
“In the case of the Western United States, I push back and say strongly — our children and grandchildren are going to be enjoying these same ski areas with, overall, not very different conditions than we’ve seen in our times.”

I forget -- do you have a complete list of the "less snow-sure" western ski areas (beyond the SoCal ones) that in all likelihood will be significantly affected? I can think of a few off the top of my head but I'm sure there are others.
Click to expand...

I assume quite a few of the Northwest/PacWest ski areas will be impacted if snow levels move 500-1000 ft higher in 50+ years.

Quite a few are on the brink already in some storms:
  • Snoqualmie/Alpental - very problematic
  • Crystal - base
  • My Baker - base
  • Mt Hood Ski Bowl - very problematic
Stevens Pass is able to pull eastern cold air through its pass, so it might be a little less impacted. I don’t have observations about inland area resorts, but all might suffer at their bases a bit.

Tahoe too will get impacted at resorts that have base areas at Lake Level 6200 ft:
  • Squaw Valley base
  • Homewood base
  • Northstar base
  • Diamond Peak/Incline
 
The number of western locations that are in middling elevation range and have total water vs. total snow data is small. And for those with rising water vs. snow numbers, there is generally not a measurable decrease in snowfall yet. It will be relatively easy to publish here what I presented at FWSA, hopefully within a week or so.

The Northeast is the other way around. The aggregate snowfall numbers are declining some but the specific locations with total water vs. snow are increasing very gradually, though the absolute numbers are high, and extremely so in shoulder season.
jamesdeluxe said:
do you have a complete list of the "less snow-sure" western ski areas (beyond the SoCal ones) that in all likelihood will be significantly affected?
Click to expand...
Below I compare lift served altitude range with adjustment of 275 feet altitude for every one degree of latitude for selected areas along the Pacific Coast. The numbers reflect how much higher each ski area or location is than SoCal's Mt. Baldy.
Areacomp basecomp topcomp avg
Baldy - - -
Mammoth 2,383 3,383 2,883
Kirkwood 2,518 2,418 2,468
Heavenly 1,319 2,746 2,032
Palisades 1,056 1,806 1,431
Mt. Rose 2,792 2,492 2,642
Mt. Ashland 1,998 1,048 1,523
Crater Lake 2,684 2,684
Willamette Pass 1,186 649 917
Hoodoo 956 (109) 424
Bachelor 2,170 3,135 2,653
Mt. Hood Ski Bowl 133 (467) (167)
Mt. Hood Meadows 1,076 1,753 1,414
Rainier Paradise 2,347 2,347
Crystal 981 1,982 1,482
Snoqualmie (282) 428 73
Stevens 1,028 907 967
Baker 962 462 712
Cypress 371 285 328
Whistler (18) 3,162 1,572


The most snow sure list is not a surprise: Mammoth, Bachelor and Whistler in top elevation, Mammoth, Bachelor and Mt. Rose in average elevation, with Kirkwood not far behind.

I was surprised some to see that SoCal is worse than Snoqualmie and only better than Mt. Hood Ski Bowl, which does have a marginal reputation for too much rain. The SoCal mountains do not get as much rain as a lot of these places, but since they get so much less snow, the rain they do get is more likely to be destructive.

So the long term data and trend I presented at FWSA for Government Camp (near Mt. Hood Ski Bowl at 3,980 feet) really was the worst case scenario.
 
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ChrisC said:
Stevens Pass is able to pull eastern cold air through its pass
Click to expand...
I have read that Snoqualmie also pulls in cold eastern air through its pass, but it's 1,000 feet lower than Stevens so surely more vulnerable.

Tahoe lake level is not great, but no worse than the bases of most of the Washington and Oregon areas. By the numbers the Vancouver locals like Cypress are worse. They, like Mt. Hood Ski Bowl, already have a reputation for enough rain to degrade reliability. I recall that a lot of work was needed to make Cypress' Olympic slopes in 2010 adequate even though Whistler was fine.
 
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