LA Fires: Jan 2025

[Tony Crocker]

I can't imagine living on the UES (or virtually anywhere in Manhattan for that matter) unless you have serious cash reserves to cushion the downsides.

That was my stereotyped image of the Upper East Side when I met Liz in 2011. But she lived in an 1880's built 5th floor walkup between 1st and York of about 450 square feet. Her attitude on many subjects is well expressed by one of the posters we saw at Apex.

My understanding is that some of the older housing stock in the Palisades was not that high end. But it's safe to say what gets rebuilt will be.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Liz and I had dental appointments in Pasadena Thursday and Friday. Liz drove up a similar way as on Jan. 13 but got a little closer in just west of the commercial district on Lake Ave (aqua line on next post).

She saw a lot of burned cars.

One had a nearby puddle of metal that had melted.

Along Lake Ave.:

Yes that's a sign for a mosque that burned.

North of the mosque:

Hardware store on Lake:

Rental sign is strangely untouched.

But the entire Mariposa Townhome complex was leveled.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Map below has Liz' route in aqua and mine in purple.

I had a more specific objective. Adam's best friend from high school Manolis grew up in an isolated canyon house above Altadena. It's in the dotted area at the end of the purple line.

Driving up the 210 freeway, you can see the retardant barrier to defend against any flare-ups moving farther west toward La Canada and JPL.

Lincoln Ave. was the mostly successful defense line during the fire. Only a very few structures on Lincoln burned. But as I approached from the west I saw this burned elementary school where embers must have blown over Lincoln.

Once I crossed east of Lincoln I'd say the residential area was 80% burned.

No that's not a real deer in the last picture.

I crossed Loma Alta and drove up Chaney Trail. This area is what we think of as canyon/mountain interface. The hillside brush was thoroughly scorched.

But only about half the houses on Chaney Trail had burned. We have read for both Eaton and Palisades fires that houses in conventional grid areas ignite each other.

The spur road to Manolis' house was blocked by a crew repairing power lines.

I gave them the story about a friend's house and they let me proceed on foot.

The road goes over a ridge and the one house on that ridge was intact. In this view from the other side you can see the road I walked down in the background.

Manolis' house is hidden below those oak trees, nearly all of which look good.

But no such luck for the house:

I crossed a ravine and climbed up the other sides to Summerkids, a day camp which Andrew attended when he was in elementary school. Summerkids' buildings burned down.

Summerkids' play equipment at left under a tree and pool at center:

Pink house in center right background is the one I passed on the road walking in.

On the way back, I spotted this 1960's Mercedes.

I sent pictures to Adam. He remembers that car, so no question that Manolis' parents lost their house.

I drove out a slightly different route, but still mostly destroyed below Loma Alta and east of Lincoln.

 

[Tony Crocker]

If anyone wants to donate through Red Cross for LA fires, you can use https://www.redcross.org/donate/cm/kcal-pub.html/ - I did.

When raising kids we attended All Saints Church in Pasadena. I got an e-mail saying that 56 parishioners lost their homes. At any rate, I have high confidence that All Saints will do an effective job helping some of the people who need it most.

Fire Recovery: Resources & Free Legal Clinic this Saturday

See our list of fire recovery resources here. The church sanctuary is open 9:00am-4:00pm daily for prayer, peace and reflection.

allsaints-pas.org

I turn 73 this year and so have to start taking RMD's from my IRAs. When we return from our trip I plan to direct a Qualified Charitable Distribution to All Saints' fire relief.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Good grief.

Do those small red signs at the edge of the property mean "uninhabitable/do not trespass/loot"? Remind me why houses have fireplaces/chimneys in that region -- are they really used?

That's always a fascinating thing -- why certain houses, outdoor items, or pieces of greenery remain completely untouched amidst a torched moonscape.

I've read several articles about people whose houses were spared amidst otherwise leveled neighborhoods. They're considered lucky but most mention that regardless the interiors will have to be gutted due to smoke damage and their yards and surrounding parcels/streets are basically Superfund cites covered by toxic residue.

 

[ChrisC]

The wildfires in CA are just devastating.

And the haphazard nature of what survives is equally perplexing.

I had not seen one and its damage up close until the Glass Fire of 2020 in northern Napa - Calistoga, CA. One impacted vineyard - Sterling - was a fun stop for guests visiting me if you were not too serious about wine or had children. They have a gondola to the top of a small hill where the physical structure is located. It took them about 3 years to rebuild everything.

 

[EMSC]

And the haphazard nature of what survives is equally perplexing.

So many of the homes that burn are from either the home next door being too close and burning, or alternatively from being far too good at catching flying embers. If there is enough space between other trees/homes and the exterior materials are selected right, houses can pretty easily be protected.

While there is certainly more homes involved it all looks pretty similar to the Marshall fire that destroyed over 1000 homes right next to me 3 years ago (closest fire approach relative to my house was about 2 miles away). 3 years later rebuilding of the neighborhoods is almost complete. Rebuilt of course with much bigger and more expensive homes.

most mention that regardless the interiors will have to be gutted due to smoke damage and their yards and surrounding parcels/streets are basically Superfund cites covered by toxic residue.

Not 100% sure about toxic residue 'everywhere', but certainly lots of toxic things burn/melt. For the Marshall fire, Boulder county stepped in using relief funding and hired specialist contractors to go in and remediate 100% of all the foundation areas (melted fridges, washers/dryers, etc... etc... ), and remove a thin amount of the top soil immediately around the house (maybe an inch or two). They weren't going to allow a hodge podge of dodgy contractors to be hired house by house for that work.

Also know someone who's home survived but was in the burn zone. The smoke damage inside was pretty complete. After 6 washes of clothing it still smelled like smoke for example (less than initially, but still stunk). The insurance company had a small square of drywall taken from each wall and tested. Nearly all of it was too infused with smoke to remain. So they had to throw out basically everything but treasured mementos and then gut it to the studs for a rebuild.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Do those small red signs at the edge of the property mean "uninhabitable/do not trespass/loot"?

Yes. the larger title print at the top of the signs says "UNSAFE."

Remind me why houses have fireplaces/chimneys in that region -- are they really used?

Altadena is an old neighborhood. Nearly every single family home in SoCal pre-WWII and probably a decade or two after has a wood burning fireplace. And people like/expect them. Newer construction is more likely to have fake/gas fireplaces. My ex would always want to burn wood in our fireplace around Christmas time. That said, L.A. County has had oil and gas production for well over a century, so natural gas pipelines for residential heating/cooking have been around here for a very long time.

For the Marshall fire

My friend Richard's daughter and son in law lost their home in Superior to the Marshall Fire. They have rebuilt, but not in the same location. Recall that fire was on Dec. 30, so heat was not a factor in Colorado. With these extremely destructive residential area fires, the main culprit is usually high winds.

 

[berkshireskier]

Yes. the larger title print at the top of the signs says "UNSAFE."

Altadena is an old neighborhood. Nearly every single family home in SoCal pre-WWII and probably a decade or two after has a wood burning fireplace. And people like/expect them. Newer construction is more likely to have fake/gas fireplaces. My ex would always want to burn wood in our fireplace around Christmas time. That said, L.A. County has had oil and gas production for well over a century, so natural gas pipelines for residential heating/cooking have been around here for a very long time.

My friend Richard's son and daughter in law lost their home in Superior to the Marshall Fire. They have rebuilt, but not in the same location. Recall that fire was on Dec. 30, so heat was not a factor in Colorado. With these extremely destructive residential area fires, the main culprit is usually high winds.

There's a famous story about Richard Nixon, after he resigned the presidency, and moved back to Southern California (San Clemente) for his forced retirement from politics. He apparently liked fireplaces and fires, so, even when it was in the 80's or 90's outside, he would turn down the AC in his house to the low 60's and he would have a fire in his wood-burning fireplace. It seems a little indulgent to me but it made him happy.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

He apparently liked fireplaces and fires, so, even when it was in the 80's or 90's outside, he would turn down the AC in his house to the low 60's and he would have a fire in his wood-burning fireplace. It seems a little indulgent to me but it made him happy.

Indulgent? That's nuts.

This just in from one of @Sbooker's compatriots:

Opinion | We Australians Have Learned From Our Bushfires. Can Californians?

In California’s fire-stoked debate over how aggressively to manage both nature and urban sprawl, Australia can share both empathy and insight.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Harvey]

Liz has a different theory.

What is her theory?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Liz has a different theory. The day after Trump won the election, the Mountain Fire in Ventura County broke out and eventually burned 20,000 acres and 243 structures. The day after Trump was certified by Congress, the Palisades and Eaton Fires started. The Santa Anas are returning to SoCal tomorrow as Trump is being inaugurated....

There were more fires this week. The largest Hughes Fire above Castaic burned over 10,000 acres but few structures.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

surrounding parcels/streets are basically Superfund cites covered by toxic residue.

Not 100% sure about toxic residue 'everywhere',

"Officials cautioned that ash in recent burn zones was a toxic mix of incinerated cars, electronics, batteries, building materials, paints, furniture and every other kind of personal belonging. It contains pesticides, asbestos, plastics and lead. Residents were urged to wear protective gear while cleaning up."

Rain on the way to LA brings fears of toxic ash in wake of wildfires

Weather will aid firefighters, but heavy downpours on charred hillsides could bring the threat of poisonous runoff

www.theguardian.com

 

[tseeb]

Indulgent? That's nuts.

This just in from one of @Sbooker's compatriots:

Opinion | We Australians Have Learned From Our Bushfires. Can Californians?

In California’s fire-stoked debate over how aggressively to manage both nature and urban sprawl, Australia can share both empathy and insight.

www.nytimes.com

I liked the ending of what @jamesdeluxe shared.

"In crises like this, you can play politics, point fingers and resist reality, or you can choose safety. Australians chose the latter. We don’t regret it."

I don't see that happening in the US. Don't we again have a President who does not believe in global warming?

 

[ChrisC]

Remind me why houses have fireplaces/chimneys in that region -- are they really used?

Fireplaces are super common, even in South Florida. My parents have one in Florida. Often, they appealed to Northern (NE, mid-Atlantic, Midwest) sensibilities, so homes built in the 80s/90s/etc all have them. It's nuts, but Americans have an idea of what a 'house' should look like - even if it is totally inappropriate to the climate. Lawns in Phoenix or Vegas, anyone? Lol. I will have to ask how many times it's been used....

 

[Tony Crocker]

Don't we again have a President who does not believe in global warming?

Really not relevant, particularly in a case like this where there is zero global warming component if you actually look at SoCal climatology.

What aspects of fires have a global warming component? IMHO these:
1) The bark beetle infestations are worse when the season that they can breed expands with warmer temperatures. You have a forest where lots of the trees are dead, that's a big fire risk. Proper forest management would mean clearing those out. While in Canada one of the locals blamed failure to do this a major cause of last summer's fire that burned down a third of the town of Jasper.
2) Fires can burn to higher elevation. The 2009 Station Fire approached Mt. Waterman but did not get over the 8,000 foot elevation of the Angeles Crest with any intensity to burn trees. But the 2020 Bobcat Fire and last year's Bridge Fire (the one that got to Mt. High) did cross the Angeles Crest. Also the Dixie and Caldor fires crossed the Sierra Crest, and I read that many people did not recall Sierra fires doing that before.

I have read that northern California forest fires can be blamed about 3/4 on the century of fire suppression and forest management and 1/4 on the hotter summers. There is no question that the worst northern California fires have nearly all been in recent years.

SoCal should indeed learn from the Aussies. In SoCal and Australia fires are a feature of the historical climate and not a recent development.

Current season-to-date L.A. rainfall is .16 inch. The rain we are getting this weekend needs to be at least .41 to avoid breaking the record low of .57 through January in 1903-04. This will be a close call based upon the forecasts.

That forecast is calling for 6-12 inches snow in the local mountains. Since the Santa Anas started Jan. 6, Big Bear has made steady progress opening new runs with favorable snowmaking weather that they did not have in December. Wall at Snow Summit and Geronimo at Bear Mt. opened yesterday.

 

[tseeb]

Really not relevant, particularly in a case like this where there is zero global warming component if you actually look at SoCal climatology.

I was referencing the "resist reality" part of close of article @jamesdeluxe linked and am not disputing that part of why fires near LA have been so destructive for so long this year is the lack of rainfall. But the other part is the strong and long-lasting winds a couple of weeks into Winter. The Cliff Mass article you linked from January 6 includes "Finally, let me note that this event is very, very unusual for this time of the year."

 

[Tony Crocker]

The strength of the winds was an outlier. The seasonality was not. Winter is the most frequent time for Santa Anas because of Nevada/Utah being colder than coastal California. Last time they were this strong was the early December 2011 event that uprooted all of those old growth trees in Pasadena.

What's "very, very unusual" is the intersection of once-a-decade or less Santa Ana wind strength with the <10% odds of so little SoCal rainfall through first week of January.

 

[Tony Crocker]

A new interesting weather connection from Cliff Mass.
Note of those top ten strong Santa Ana wind dates, eight are in December or January.

And more details on the well forecast extreme winds in advance of and during the fires.

 

[EMSC]

"Officials cautioned that ash in recent burn zones was a toxic mix of incinerated cars, electronics, batteries, building materials, paints, furniture and every other kind of personal belonging. It contains pesticides, asbestos, plastics and lead. Residents were urged to wear protective gear while cleaning up."

Maybe, but lets be honest, that statement sounds a lot like a politician/bureaucrat trying to cover their arse, just in case. Possible in some areas (eg right next to an auto-battery shop), probably. 'Everywhere' I doubt, without much more proof/detail. Otherwise the officials would also be quarantining all the homes and land anywhere near the fires too for all the toxic stuff that got deposited on them.

Remember, when things burn it literally mostly goes up in smoke (eg into the atmosphere). With some concentration points of too of course.