Well...
The current temp in Lake Erie is 51 degrees.... Only one degree off the record temp of 52 since it was recorded starting in 1927.
For anyone not familiar with lake effect snow it is the sweetest thing for east US skiing. Cold air from canada comes across Lake Erie or Ontario and picks up moisture. The warmer the lake the more moisture. It hits the coast and is forced up the natural plateau to the East. The effect is this... Moisture laden air is forced up to higher altitude and colder temps and it dumps out that moisture as the relative dew point drops. What you end up with is a band of snow that sits in place and is not effected by larger weather patterns and storms, but only by wind direction. It can snow in a snow belt when there is not other storm for hundreds of miles.... I know a bit about this because I live in one. it streatches from west of Edinboro PA over into Ohio and runs up over the NY line and through Buffalo.
Here is an interesting article on it.
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/e ... efsnw1.htm
My question is with the very abnormally high lake temps of around 5 degrees above normal, what are we going to get snow wise from it this winter?
My guess would be early season (december) dumps of near record proportions. Perhaps it is just my wishful thinking. I have never read a study that directly links the two but I hope that my theory is right.
The current temp in Lake Erie is 51 degrees.... Only one degree off the record temp of 52 since it was recorded starting in 1927.
For anyone not familiar with lake effect snow it is the sweetest thing for east US skiing. Cold air from canada comes across Lake Erie or Ontario and picks up moisture. The warmer the lake the more moisture. It hits the coast and is forced up the natural plateau to the East. The effect is this... Moisture laden air is forced up to higher altitude and colder temps and it dumps out that moisture as the relative dew point drops. What you end up with is a band of snow that sits in place and is not effected by larger weather patterns and storms, but only by wind direction. It can snow in a snow belt when there is not other storm for hundreds of miles.... I know a bit about this because I live in one. it streatches from west of Edinboro PA over into Ohio and runs up over the NY line and through Buffalo.
Here is an interesting article on it.
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/e ... efsnw1.htm
My question is with the very abnormally high lake temps of around 5 degrees above normal, what are we going to get snow wise from it this winter?
My guess would be early season (december) dumps of near record proportions. Perhaps it is just my wishful thinking. I have never read a study that directly links the two but I hope that my theory is right.