I updated the bimonthly coronavirus spreadsheet. For the past few weeks we get nonstop stories about how bad it is here in L.A. County. Here are two week new case counts per million for Florida, L.A. County, Colorado. Rank is shown for any number over 3,000 and where LA County (population 10 million) would rank if it were a state:
Summer peak 7/31: FL(#1) 8,323, LA(#12) 4,631, CO 1,584
9/1: FL 2,507, LA 2,092, CO 797
10/3: FL 1,868, LA 1,630, CO 1,634
10/17: FL 1,576, LA 1,291, CO 1,626
10/31: FL 2,519, LA 2,135, CO(#23) 4,416
October was the month the Upper Midwest exploded. 4 states were over 10,000 on 10/31 for the first time, though I'm sure Northeastern states were far over that in the spring but unreported due to lack of testing.
11/15: FL 3,378(#40), LA 2,882, CO(#16) 9,010.
11 states were over 10,000 on 11/15 and Colorado seems to have caught the Midwest spike. Nothing out of the ordinary is happening in Florida or California yet, and any socializing, celebrating related to the Lakers win 10/11 and the Dodgers win 10/27 has had little effect on LA's numbers.
11/30: FL 5,471(#37), LA 5,906(#34), CO(#14) 12,075.
22 states are over 10,000 and this is the peak for Colorado. LA has doubled in the past two weeks and is now over its summer peak but still below average for the USA. Did anything unusual happen in the first half of November? Perhaps the election affected some states, but California has had a high level of mail-in voting for decades, so I don't think that's a factor here at all.
12/16: FL 7,037(#44), LA 14,734(#4), CO(#24) 11,020.
32 states are over 10,000, including California 11,021(#26) in total. LA County has about 1/4 of the state population. This is the Thanksgiving spike, though there are many states like Colorado that were already high and didn't go higher.
12/31: FL 7,558(#32), LA 21,150(#1), CO(#39) 6,507.
14 states are over 10,000 including California 15,542(#2) in total. Florida and Colorado are better than most places but still about as bad as the worst states during the summer peak. USA overall is 9,377, down a little from the 10,211 peak two weeks earlier.
Stats in format of prior reports:
Minnesota at 5,132 and 5.2% positivity rate ranks #46.
Colorado at 6,507 and 24.8% positivity rate ranks #39. I think there's a problem with the way tests in Colorado are being reported to Worldometers.
New Jersey at 7,147 and 7.7% positivity rate ranks #34.
Florida at 7,558 and 10.4% positivity rate ranks #32.
Utah at 10.643 and 12.3% positivity rate ranks #11.
California at 15,542 and 12.9% positivity rate ranks #2.
Tennessee is #1 with 15,805 and 22.0% positivity rate.
With all the news reports I still don't see a good explanation for LA County's current situation. LA leads US metro areas in percent of overcrowded housing (11% vs. 6% in NY and SF). I knew about that problem in March and yet nothing out of the ordinary happened here until maybe 6 weeks ago. And the rest of the state is in the same pattern. LA's numbers run 25-35% over the statewide average in both high and low periods, and even now 3 other counties (Riverside, San Bernardino and Fresno) are higher than LA.
Summer peak 7/31: FL(#1) 8,323, LA(#12) 4,631, CO 1,584
9/1: FL 2,507, LA 2,092, CO 797
10/3: FL 1,868, LA 1,630, CO 1,634
10/17: FL 1,576, LA 1,291, CO 1,626
10/31: FL 2,519, LA 2,135, CO(#23) 4,416
October was the month the Upper Midwest exploded. 4 states were over 10,000 on 10/31 for the first time, though I'm sure Northeastern states were far over that in the spring but unreported due to lack of testing.
11/15: FL 3,378(#40), LA 2,882, CO(#16) 9,010.
11 states were over 10,000 on 11/15 and Colorado seems to have caught the Midwest spike. Nothing out of the ordinary is happening in Florida or California yet, and any socializing, celebrating related to the Lakers win 10/11 and the Dodgers win 10/27 has had little effect on LA's numbers.
11/30: FL 5,471(#37), LA 5,906(#34), CO(#14) 12,075.
22 states are over 10,000 and this is the peak for Colorado. LA has doubled in the past two weeks and is now over its summer peak but still below average for the USA. Did anything unusual happen in the first half of November? Perhaps the election affected some states, but California has had a high level of mail-in voting for decades, so I don't think that's a factor here at all.
12/16: FL 7,037(#44), LA 14,734(#4), CO(#24) 11,020.
32 states are over 10,000, including California 11,021(#26) in total. LA County has about 1/4 of the state population. This is the Thanksgiving spike, though there are many states like Colorado that were already high and didn't go higher.
12/31: FL 7,558(#32), LA 21,150(#1), CO(#39) 6,507.
14 states are over 10,000 including California 15,542(#2) in total. Florida and Colorado are better than most places but still about as bad as the worst states during the summer peak. USA overall is 9,377, down a little from the 10,211 peak two weeks earlier.
Stats in format of prior reports:
Minnesota at 5,132 and 5.2% positivity rate ranks #46.
Colorado at 6,507 and 24.8% positivity rate ranks #39. I think there's a problem with the way tests in Colorado are being reported to Worldometers.
New Jersey at 7,147 and 7.7% positivity rate ranks #34.
Florida at 7,558 and 10.4% positivity rate ranks #32.
Utah at 10.643 and 12.3% positivity rate ranks #11.
California at 15,542 and 12.9% positivity rate ranks #2.
Tennessee is #1 with 15,805 and 22.0% positivity rate.
With all the news reports I still don't see a good explanation for LA County's current situation. LA leads US metro areas in percent of overcrowded housing (11% vs. 6% in NY and SF). I knew about that problem in March and yet nothing out of the ordinary happened here until maybe 6 weeks ago. And the rest of the state is in the same pattern. LA's numbers run 25-35% over the statewide average in both high and low periods, and even now 3 other counties (Riverside, San Bernardino and Fresno) are higher than LA.