New England/Northeast Foliage Reports

[berkshireskier]

Yes, it has been a disappointing "leaf peeping" season (in terms of color) throughout almost all of New England this year. Some people are blaming the prolonged drought afflicting almost all of the Northeast., plus we had a very mild September. The colors, especially on the Sugar Maples, are very drab, mostly turning a brownish-yellow and then dropping to the ground. My wife and I drove up to Montreal two days ago on the Northway from Albany straight up through the Adirondacks and the colors were still fairly good at the lower elevations in the 'Daks", with the poplars (I think) having the brightest yellow color. Peak has passed in the higher elevations. Even in Montreal, the colors weren't that great and it's been a late Fall up there.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Yes, it has been a disappointing "leaf peeping" season (in terms of color) throughout almost all of New England this year. Some people are blaming the prolonged drought afflicting almost all of the Northeast., plus we had a very mild September.

This is a key quote from the snowmaking thread:

like warming winters, recurring late-summer droughts are part of a larger climate change-driven pattern

Our Septembers and Octobers across the past two decades have been glorious from a sunshine perspective (virtually nonstop blue skies); however, they're increasingly bone dry -- more like what I experienced living in Albuquerque and Denver/Boulder than the northeast.

 

[berkshireskier]

This is a key quote from the snowmaking thread:

Our Septembers and Octobers across the past two decades have been glorious from a sunshine perspective (virtually nonstop blue skies); however, they're increasingly bone dry -- more like what I experienced living in Albuquerque and Denver/Boulder than the northeast.

Yes, so true, and, hence, the numerous forest fires throughout the Northeast last Fall. I never remember forest fires being an issue in New England before.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I never remember forest fires being an issue in New England before.

Right and we had fires in northern NJ, which is bonkers.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Our Septembers and Octobers across the past two decades have been glorious from a sunshine perspective (virtually nonstop blue skies); however, they're increasingly bone dry -

Recency bias from the past two years. I downloaded this file of NYC monthly precipitation since 1869.

2021​

2.31​

5.13​

3.41​

2.69​

4.36​

2.62​

11.09​

10.32​

10.03​

5.26​

1.12​

1.39​

59.73​

2022​

4.29​

3.23​

2.39​

4.53​

4.52​

2.92​

4.55​

1.71​

4.10​

5.08​

3.15​

5.83​

46.30​

2023​

4.38​

1.28​

3.32​

7.70​

1.28​

1.62​

5.34​

6.56​

14.25​

3.90​

2.95​

6.71​

59.29​

2024​

5.28​

2.05​

9.06​

3.47​

4.11​

1.71​

4.20​

7.02​

1.58​

0.01​

3.35​

4.53​

46.37​

YEAR

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

ANNUAL

average

3.51​

3.32​

4.01​

3.74​

3.70​

3.63​

4.39​

4.45​

3.92​

3.72​

3.53​

3.69​

45.64​

stdev

1.62​

1.45​

1.88​

1.95​

1.97​

1.99​

2.28​

2.72​

2.78​

2.51​

2.07​

1.77​

8.33​

since

3.44​

3.19​

4.22​

4.34​

4.03​

4.60​

5.07​

5.16​

4.79​

4.54​

3.47​

4.60​

51.45​

2000

1.14​

1.68​

2.36​

2.46​

1.74​

2.63​

2.26​

3.60​

3.45​

3.26​

1.69​

1.64​

8.87​

​

​

difference

1.16​

1.22​

1.22​

​

​

​

1.32​

1.24​

1.30​

September/October 2024 were unusually dry. This year June-August were 36% below average though September had 4.15 inches.

But note that August-October from 2000-2024 were 20% rainier than the long term average since 1869, and the standard deviations rose in reasonable proportion to the averages. Therefore the narrative

recurring late-summer droughts are part of a larger climate change-driven pattern

is false for NYC and safe to say for James' region. I'm not going to round up any more data but if anyone in New England wants to make this assertion, they need to provide some data to back it up.

From James' go-to source, the NY Post on Sept. 5:

Despite the dryness, the city’s six reservoirs have been staying steady, falling just 2% below their storage capacities. “There is no concern about drought at this time,” a spokesperson for the city Department of Environmental Protection told The Post.

The link is current and shows reservoirs at 93% of normal today. Rainfall numbers in that link differ from NYC Central Park and are probably from the watershed region.

 

[berkshireskier]

This is my memory, too, Tony, backed up by your stats above. Last Fall was dry and this year too (so far) but I don't remember it being unusually dry in previous years in the Fall. This just proves my thesis that the weather in New England can be extremely variable (hence, the famous quote from Mark Twain, about "if you don't like the weather, just wait a minute"). I do think there is some longer term evidence (going back to 1970 or so) that the Winters have been getting warmer and wetter over the last 50 plus years.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Winters have been getting warmer and wetter

Not more precipitation, but some rain that used to be snow. I still believe that issue in the Northeast is more acute in the shoulder seasons though.

 

[EMSC]

Yes, so true, and, hence, the numerous forest fires throughout the Northeast last Fall. I never remember forest fires being an issue in New England before.

As backed up by Tony's data, why do you think there are/were fire lookout towers built in the various mountain ranges in the Northeast?

Primarily due to the inconsistent but occasional very dry summers/falls.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

While we're 7-10 days from our usual peak period here in northern New Jersey, I can confirm that the foliage is mezzo-mezzo at best. The drought has definitely done a number on the autumn scenery with mostly dull yellows and golds and very little of the dazzling oranges, reds, and purples that we NEers normally enjoy. My father-in-law just returned from two weeks in Maine and New Hampshire and said that it was likewise OK but not fabulous up there.

From today's MTB ride:

The dreaded dry creek effect:

In the following shots, you can see that the overstory has already lost most of its leaves:

Oh well, it was a nice day and at least the dry conditions haven't affected the intoxicating (to me) fall fragrance. Post pix if you got 'em!

 

[Sbooker]

While we're 7-10 days from our usual peak period here in northern New Jersey, I can confirm that the foliage is mezzo-mezzo at best. The drought has definitely done a number on the autumn scenery with mostly dull yellows and golds and very little of the dazzling oranges, reds, and purples that we NEers normally enjoy. My father-in-law just returned from two weeks in Maine and New Hampshire and said that it was likewise OK but not fabulous up there.

From today's MTB ride:
View attachment 47817

The dreaded dry creek effect:
View attachment 47816

In the following shots, you can see that the overstory has already lost most of its leaves:
View attachment 47815

View attachment 47819

View attachment 47820

View attachment 47821

Oh well, it was a nice day and at least the dry conditions haven't affected the intoxicating (to me) fall fragrance. Post pix if you got 'em!

If that is disappointing I’ll be impressed if I go in a disappointing year. It looks lovely to me.

I had planned to visit this year but those plans were stymied by my dad having some medical issues. Won’t get there next year either as we’re going to Slovenia/Dolomites in late September for hiking.
Might have to be 2027.

 

[EMSC]

I'll play in this thread in two parts:

~3 weeks ago in the southern tier of NY:
Chemung river next to Willow Creek Golf

Not a lot, but just starting to really change on the hills...

Welcome to Corning, NY

Part two is the comparison of East to Non-East foliage. Specifically the front range, not the aspens in the mtns:
From a bike ride to a neighboring town today

Currently a mix of lost leaves, peak leaves and not yet started for some trees.

You can see a tiny bit of single track in this one

I wore this shirt today specifically for @jamesdeluxe

 

[jamesdeluxe]

While driving through northwestern New Jersey early morning on Friday, it became clear that no one gave this region the memo about it being a sub-par leaf season. It was absolutely stunning and underscores how localized everything can be. Unfortunately, I had two separate appointments and no time to stop for lots of photos.

This is what it looked like at Stokes State Forest just after dawn.

I had to hustle to make my 10:40 am tee time at the Poconos Club in East Stroudsburg. At that point, sightlines were clear but with approx. 80% of the leaves surrounding the course already on the ground, it wasn't comparable to where I was 30 miles to the north. Regardless, a nice backdrop for a quick round of golf:

You can't tell from this angle but the fairway is 60 feet below the green, which creates a challenging approach shot from 150 yards away:

Here's one of the course's money shots: Hole #16 with a 200-foot elevated tee looking out over the Delaware Water Gap in the distance, the liftline of Shawnee ski area to the left, framed by deep blue sky and puffy cumulus clouds similar to what you see in New Mexico:

 

[flyover]

My parents have said that Vermont's fall colors were a bit lackluster this year.

Meanwhile, fall colors have been at least average in intensity here in MN this year, but also at least two weeks behind schedule compared to historical averages.

I would miss maple trees this time of year if we ever moved west.

Sioux River, BWCA, 9/27/25

Lac La Croix, BWCA, 9/29/25

Sioux River, BWCA, 9/29/25

Sioux River, BWCA, 9/30/25

Echo Trail, MN 9/30/25

View from the backyard, Minneapolis, 10/22/25

South Minneapolis, 10/23/25

Mississippi River, St. Paul, 10/23/25

Mississippi River, Minneapolis on the left, St. Paul on the right, 10/23/25

Lake Hiawatha, South Minneapolis, 10/23/25

South Minneapolis, 10/23/25

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I wore this shirt today specifically for @jamesdeluxe

I had no idea that Elmira airport has Delta flights through Detroit. I always wonder about the economics of jet service to small places like that -- do they have to provide subsidies so airlines will continue to operate there?

 

[jamesdeluxe]

View from the backyard, Minneapolis

Does Paul Westerberg live nearby?

 

[flyover]

Does Paul Westerberg live nearby?

"Well a person can work up a mean mean thirst
after a hard day of nothin' much at all
Summer's passed, it's too late to cut the grass
There ain't much to rake anyway in the fall"

Last I heard he was living in Edina, so no.

However, our closest access to Minneapolis' extensive network of bike trails is the Midtown Greenway, which used to be a rail corridor and is where this picture was taken:

We also live about a half mile from the Purple Rain House.

 

[EMSC]

I had no idea that Elmira airport has Delta flights through Detroit. I always wonder about the economics of jet service to small places like that -- do they have to provide subsidies so airlines will continue to operate there?

No subsidies required. At some points in the past Elmira had all of the big 3 providing service (Delta, United and AA). Today Elmira has Delta 3x per day on 76 seat CRJ's and also ~4 flight per week on Allegiant flying A320's direct to various places in Florida. Basically it's a fair number of well off retirees from the now Rust belt days plus Corning Inc employees and their families.

Somewhat ironically I heard that Binghamton, with way more people in it's 'metro' area, is down to a single flight per day...

 

[jamesdeluxe]

We're at the end of foliage season while off-road biking in Morristown NJ. The leaves are 95% down:

However, there's a bit of color at ground level:

Burning bush:

Still a lot of green at Weequahic golf course in Newark: