Obama and the Ski Industry

I'd bet my house that we wouldn't have spent close to a trillion in Iraq if almost ANYBODY other than W had won in 2000. No way McCain would have us in this mess. .... I still don't understand the motivation for being there.
The motivation (quite explicitly stated by Wolfowitz and other neocons) was to change Arab/Middle East political culture in a positive way. Whether McCain would have gone for that argument is hard to say. If he had gone for it, he would have listened to the military (it was actually called the Powell Doctrine) and sent 3x as many troops in the initial invasion, likely preventing most of the looting and perhaps preventing much of the insurgency. If the modest surge of 2007 rolled back the violence as much as it has, one would suspect a similar strategy at inception would have saved much in terms of $, lives and polarization of the Iraqi ethnic groups.

The roots of the financial crisis date back into the 1990's, and as with 9/11 there is plenty of blame to go around. But given other events of the past 8 years, no surprise Bush admin is going to take the hit for this one too.

We can only hope that Obama is really like Colin Powell. His rhetoric says he is, though his slender track record says otherwise.
 
Tony...I'd like to see the timeline on the neocon justification for the war. I was pretty sure that they were just searching for ANYTHING to justify the big blunder. Did they actually come up with that before the statue fell?

And oh yea....with the appearance of this ad on FTO, I'm assuming we can run wild:
 

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Tony Crocker":300msooe said:
there is a strong correlation between the Yankees losing or not making the series and democrats winning the presidency.
YES: 2000, 1992, 1956, 1952, 1948, 1944, 1940, 1928
NO: 2004, 1996, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1964, 1960, 1936, 1932, 1924 (Yankees never in WS before 1921)

No correlation at all in recent times, but I found the era in which this rumor must have originated, when the Yankees were in the Series over half the time. I think there was a stretch where stock market performance correlated with whether a pre-merger NFL team won the Super Bowl.

The only years there where the yankees won the world series and the democrats won the presidency are 96' (in recent times) and 32' 36'. So again, there is a strong correlation between the yankees sucking and the democrats taking the presidency. Well, at least since 1940.
 
The fact remains that the Yankee correlation was wrong for 8 consecutive elections, 1960 - 1988. This stretch included 3 Yankees in WS and Dems win elections and 5 Yankees out and Reps win elections.

Not sure this is definitive, but these support my impressions about the Iraq invasion:
On February 25, 1998, Wolfowitz testified before a congressional committee that he thought that "the best opportunity to overthrow Saddam was, unfortunately, lost in the month right after the first Gulf war." Wolfowitz added that he was horrified in March as "Saddam Hussein flew helicopters that slaughtered the people in the south and in the north who were rising up against him, while American fighter pilots flew overhead, desperately eager to shoot down those helicopters, and not allowed to do so." During that hearing, he also stated: "Some people might say—and I think I would sympathise with this view—that perhaps if we had delayed the ceasefire by a few more days, we might have got rid of [Saddam Hussein]."
and
In the first emergency meeting of the U.S. National Security Council on the day of the 9/11 attacks, Rumsfeld asked, "Why shouldn’t we go against Iraq, not just al-Qaeda?" with Wolfowitz adding that Iraq was a "brittle, oppressive regime that might break easily—it was doable," and, according to John Kampfner, "from that moment on, he and Wolfowitz used every available opportunity to press the case."
and
Prior to the invasion, Wolfowitz had a plan to sell the war to the administration as well as the general public, as he later stated: "For bureaucratic reasons, we settled on one issue, weapons of mass destruction, because it was the one reason everyone could agree on."

I think the "liberation" motivation of the neocons, recalling the March 1991 revolts that Saddam suppressed, led to their belief that we we were assisting an oppressed people in overthrowing their government; thus we would be welcomed as liberators and the only American forces needed were those sufficient to take out Saddam. Maybe true in March 1991 when the revolt was actually happening, but after 12 more years of suffering under both Saddam and sanctions it was inexcusable IMHO not to plan for a wide range of possible Iraqi reactions to the 2003 invasion.
 
If McCain is elected and does not survive a first term then Palin would have the "Alaska Whitehouse", in which case, the Secret Service would have a significant security detail in AK and, hence, may cause an indirect positive impact on the Alaska ski industry by increasing lift ticket sales by a few dozen (Secret Service agents based in Jackson Hole, WY for Cheney's detail ski regulary). That's about as close to a positive impact I can see this ticket having on the ski industry, or anything for that matter.
 
...Just one word(I promise!) from me...regarding all your points Tony(and I'm keeping it Normal sized)...

Puhleeeze!


*Sorry, reply to previous:
With Sarah wielding a 30-30...and Cheney not far behind, anyone doing the trees had better wear somethin' reallly Orange... :shock: ..or else..lookout.


SteveD
 
I think Sarah is a better shot than Cheney... :lol:

Does anyone know whether Cheney skis at all at Jackson? One of the ski mags had an extensive interview a few years back of Scooter Libby by Jackson Hogen. Perhaps Libby could have stayed out of trouble by making a career in the ski industry like his Yale classmate.
 
One thing about living in NJ...since the both sides considered it in the bag for Obama - you don't see much McCain or Obama advertising. Just what slips in from Philly. And the candidates certainly don't spend any time here.

My parents are in their mid-70s and they are serious Obamicans. They drove into PA yesterday, basically in a snow storm to see Obama speak. The waited a long time in the freezing rain to hear a short stump speech that I'm sure they've heard on the news a million times. You've got to admire their dedication to the process.

Even more amazing is the response to these pictures from our relatives in Europe. THEY are more engaged in this election than people I talk to over here.

Ok I'm done now.
 

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Tony Crocker said:
I think Sarah is a better shot than Cheney... :lol:

Does anyone know whether Cheney skis at all at Jackson? One of the ski mags had an extensive interview a few years back of Scooter Libby by Jackson Hogen. Perhaps Libby could have stayed out of trouble by making a career in the ski industry like his Yale classmate.

Not sure if Cheney does much of anything with his heart condition. Especially at 6500 - 11,000'. I know that he lives in a very exclusive golf community outside of Teton Village. (I don't want to give out the exact location for fear of a black Suburban showing up outside my house). I spend a fair amount of time in JH visiting my wife's family and they are not the most consevative community with all of the California and East Coast million and billionaires living there, so he may stay in an undisclosed location after January 9th.
 
Tony Crocker":cknjqpv1 said:
I think Sarah is a better shot than Cheney... :lol:....
:lol:....but you never know about those 12-gauge boys, when he opens up = you're bound to get some ricoche(sp?)...*but thankfully I'm here in NewEngland...where the spaces are few and branches are many... :roll:

SteveD
 
I spend a fair amount of time in JH visiting my wife's family and they are not the most consevative community with all of the California and East Coast million and billionaires living there
Absolutely. Teton County is very rich and the only county in Wyoming that voted for Kerry in 2004. So no surprise JHMR's request for state $$ to help build the new tram didn't go over very well.

Even more amazing is the response to these pictures from our relatives in Europe. THEY are more engaged in this election than people I talk to over here.
Yes, the Euro countries are in love with Obama. If he's elected, he ought to use that political capital ASAP, like trying to get more help in Afghanistan. When called to put up, I suspect the Euro ardor will cool though.
 
Man, I tried to keep it related to skiing with the link between skiing and current and past Canadians Political leaders. Oh well. :roll:

Tony Crocker":1w18itnd said:
If he's elected, he ought to use that political capital ASAP, like trying to get more help in Afghanistan. When called to put up, I suspect the Euro ardor will cool though.

What are the number's right now? Canada cannot commit more and has had a fairly important death rate among combating forces as they was been confined in one of the hot spots of Afghanistan with no or little reinforcements.

I believe the error was the US started something (rightly or wrongly) and then focused most of it energies on Iraq. If the US would have stayed focus, the West wouldn't probably be in the difficult situation it's now dealing in Afghanistan.
 
there is a strong correlation between the Yankees losing or not making the series and democrats winning the presidency.
L.A. Times has unearthed the better correlation. Substitute Lakers for Yankees and NBA Finals for World Series, and the pattern has been true for all 12 presidential elections since 1960:
Lakers in (W or L in finals), Reps win all: 1968L, 1972W, 1980W, 1984L,1988W, 2000W, 2004L
Lakers out, Dems win all: 1960, 1964, 1976, 1992, 1996

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ 96.2% chance the pattern will be broken this year.
 
jamesdeluxe":h1xlqe9f said:
Actually, there are no connections that I'm aware of. I'm just looking forward to the top-to-bottom ass whoopin' the repubs are going to get two weeks from now.
:snowball fight:

In case anyone missed it Obama won. :-"

I guess we'll see if there is any effect on the industry.

James - was the whoopin' sufficient or were you hoping for more?
 
Honestly, I was hoping for a 60/40 popular vote split, but this will have to do.

Check it out... the commies in Summit County, UT went 56/41 for Obama
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/resul ... t/map.html

Had McCain conducted his campaign with the grace and intelligence of his concession speech, you gotta wonder how things may have turned out. Amazing how well he delivered it (with no cue cards or teleprompters). That was the guy I remembered from the 2000 republican primary, the one who was robbed by GWB and his mob.
 
Had McCain conducted his campaign with the grace and intelligence of his concession speech, you gotta wonder how things may have turned out.
I disagree. After the economic news of the past 2 months Jesus Christ couldn't have been elected president with an (R) after his name.

I would also point out that McCain's first instinct WAS to run a more positive general election campaign. After Obama refused the once-a-week town halls and public financing, the battle was going to be fought on conventional lines, with advertising and get-out-the-vote. Badly out-organized and out-spent, McCain's only chance at that point was to go negative.

Nice county map reference there. All the ski towns in Colorado are blue, including Vail at 60%. Summit is the only blue county in Utah. Gallatin (Bozeman, Montana) is the only red ski town I found. Is that surprising, given that there's a state university there too?
 
Jesus Christ couldn't have been elected president with an (R) after his name.

Good one. I thought it was a pretty poor showing given his advantages that Obama had such an extremely difficult time even getting just over 50% of the popular vote. In theory he should have been well over 60% with the huge $$, lots of fawning media, extreme low popularity of W, and etc... virtually everything possible all running in his favor for this cycle. And while there are probably 25% of the population for each party that would vote a party ticket even with a dead squirrel for their candidate; but still... not an impressive showing at all IMHO.

Now can we get back to the Skiing already - It's winter outside finally.
 
In theory he should have been well over 60%....
If Obama had actually been running against Bush, he might have had a shot at 60%. Similarly I'll bet McCain would have beaten Gore in 2000 by 10 points.

The analogous election is 1980. IMHO economic problems, similar unemployment combined with double-digit inflation, looked far more intractable than the current crisis. Iran hostage crisis. Cold war Russia looked strong and expansive, propped up by high energy prices (deja vu?). And unlike this time the incumbent (Jimmy Carter) was actually running for reelection. The only chance for the incumbent to survive that scenario is to make the other guy look scary. When Reagan/Obama looked calm, reassuring and presidential in the debates, it was game over.
 
i bit my tongue on this thread because i agree that it brings the site down to levels that is should not be at.... i'll just say 3 things
1) not everyone thinks GWB was the devil... some of us actually think he is a good man who tried to protect this country and stood up for his principles and core beliefs
2) anyone who thinks the current financial crisis was the sole fault of GWB and the republicans is a partisan fool
3) not everyone who likes skiing and enjoys the outdoors and wants to protect the environment is a looney left wing liberal democrat

:roll:
 
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