Oz/NZ 2022.

[Sbooker]

New Zealand is open for Australian visitors by July 'at the latest'. We're on.

New Zealand announced its citizens can return home. But not all are rushing to book flights

New Zealand's border reopening has many in Australia feeling elated, but some remain fearful they could become stranded on the wrong side of the Tasman if rules change again at short notice.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Tony Crocker]

I notice that WA is at last open to international travelers but requires something called a G2G Pass, which I presume is something like Chile's Mobility pass that must be set up before arrival.

By the way, is sbooker above the waterline in Brisbane?

 

[Sbooker]

I notice that WA is at last open to international travelers but requires something called a G2G Pass, which I presume is something like Chile's Mobility pass that must be set up before arrival.

By the way, is sbooker above the waterline in Brisbane?

High and dry at Mango Hill. I have other property in the region and they're fine too thankfully. We're about 38 feet above sea level. Brisbane proper is built on a flood plane and would flood much more often if it was for the flood mitigation on Wivenhoe Dam.

Wivenhoe Dam - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The rainfall was intense and it didn't relent. Easily more than I have seen in my 50 years of living locally. My gauge registered 1.34m or 4 and half feet (usually our rainfall is measured in millimetres) over the period from Friday noon to Sunday 4pm. Falls in other nearby areas measured over 1.7 metres for the same time frame.
Our workplace manages about 950 rental properties locally. In a 'normal' severe weather event we get 4 or 5 properties with minor flooding, leaks etc. This event we had over 120. Whilst the riverine flooding this time around won't be as bad as 2011 the damage will be much more widespread as the flash flooding was severe from the Sunshine Coast south to greater Brisbane and further south to the Gold Coast.

2010–2011 Queensland floods - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I don't have to be an actuary to predict our insurance premiums are going to rocket over the coming years even though most insurance companies no longer offer cover for riverine flooding after the 1974 and 2011 events.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Some of the rain numbers are comparable to Hurricane Harvey in Houston in 2017. It also seems that these events are not rare in SE Queensland, with numerous references to 2010-11, 1974, etc. The latter two instances correspond to a couple of the La Ninas significantly stronger than the current one.

 

[Sbooker]

Some of the rain numbers are comparable to Hurricane Harvey in Houston in 2017. It also seems that these events are not rare in SE Queensland, with numerous references to 2010-11, 1974, etc. The latter two instances correspond to a couple of the La Ninas significantly stronger than the current one.

Given our latitude we'd have to be at about 15000 feet for that precipitation to fall as the snow?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Hard to say. The place with mountains that high at your latitude comes to my mind is where I was in December, the Atacama. Most of the world at your latitude is desert, including most of the rest of Australia. The wet areas are mostly the east coasts of continents. I thought maybe orographic uplift might enhance rainfall, but the mountains inland from Brisbane and even Cairns are only 1,500 - 2,000 feet. That's still more than Houston though. Petropolis in Brazil just had an intense rain/mudslide event. I'm fairly sure SE China can get this level of intense rainfall also.

Brisbane's latitude is the same as the southern foothills of the Himalayas. So summer is wet season and that's why its climbing season is April-June.

I have one noteworthy experience at altitude in a summer wet climate.

I recalled during my summer of 2020 in Tampa Bay comparing its climate to Brisbane's. Florida's weather disasters are nearly all hurricanes. I do not recall reading about Brisbane/Houston multiday deluges though. The world meteorology textbook I read that summer commented on Tampa's unusually stable summer weather in terms of temperature range, which I definitely noticed.

 

[Sbooker]

I'm ready to book some accommodation in Wanaka for the second or third week of August. Couple of days at Treble Cone and a day at each of Cardrona and Remarkables. Southern Lakes is probably more reliable than Mt Hutt at that time of year. I'd really like to ski Ruapehu in September/October but it's very susceptible to wind closures even at that time of year. Unfortunately this will be another trip without the kids as our winter does not align with our school holidays which fall last week of June/first week of July and last week of September/first week of October.

 

[Sbooker]

A cold early season storm has rolled through south eastern Australia. Snow down to about 2000 feet in parts. So far about 8 inches at the resort mid stations. About another 10 inches to come apparently.

A nice start but will likely be mostly washed away before the end June as ‘east coast lows’ that form over the ocean (warm systems) are common this time of year.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I realize that east coast Australia has a warm prevailing current that moves north to south. But weather at temperate latitudes nearly always moves west to east. So why would "east coast lows" move west into the Snowy Range of Australia?

I've never thought about this before. I've just looked at the altitude/latitude range of Aussie ski areas and assumed that's a recipe for lots of rain. But if weather comes from the NW, that's over desert and should be dry, while if it comes from the SW, that's over cold water and more likely to be snow.

 

[Sbooker]

I realize that east coast Australia has a warm prevailing current that moves north to south. But weather at temperate latitudes nearly always moves west to east. So why would "east coast lows" move west into the Snowy Range of Australia?

I've never thought about this before. I've just looked at the altitude/latitude range of Aussie ski areas and assumed that's a recipe for lots of rain. But if weather comes from the NW, that's over desert and should be dry, while if it comes from the SW, that's over cold water and more likely to be snow.

The east coast lows seem to move roughly from north east toward the upper/mid/southern New South Wales and Victorian coast. I don't know why they do this but our tropical cyclones often move in the same direction which as you say is against the prevailing west to east direction.
Anyway by the time they get to the area south of Sydney they are generally bringing warm rain.

What is an East Coast Low? - Social Media Blog - Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology's blog gives you the inside information on weather, climate, oceans and water.

media.bom.gov.au

^^^^
The nice people at the BOM explain it.

 

[Sbooker]

The best systems obviously come from the south west. That's the system we're seeing now.
Interestingly there is a phenomenon that sees Mt Buller in Victoria receive rain when the wind comes from the west - even when the temps are below freezing. Something to do with not enough orographic lift from that direction. As soon as it swings SW or NW it starts snowing. Are you aware of any other locations where this occurs?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Tropical weather usually moves east to west while temperate zone weather is the opposite. East to west tropical weather encroaches upon higher latitudes more in the summer than in the winter. Cape Town's high winds in summer are east to west for example, while its rainy weather in winter is west to east. Gulf of Mexico hurricanes in summer usually move N or NW into Louisiana or Texas while in October they may curve back to the east across Florida.

The above makes me wonder what's unique about Australia to have that weather moving NE to SW during the winter months which should be extremely rare at 35+ degree latitude. Yet the link specifically says it's mostly a fall/winter phenomenon, despite my generalization about prevailing wind directions.

I have no explanation for your Mt. Buller phenomenon. But mountains can have strange microclimates. That's why you want local meteorologists who have lived in the area for a long time doing your ski forecasting vs. someone who is only using computer models.

Maybe sbooker can dig up someone like that to answer the "east coast low" question.

 

[Tony Crocker]

The US East Coast perhaps has a cousin to Australia's East Coast Low.

The genesis of these phenomena is similar: cold continental air mixing with warmer air over a warm sea current. Nor'easters often produce a lot of snow as the latitude is higher and the cold air from Canada is likely much colder than anything over Australia. Nor'easters' storm tracks generally parallel the east coast and do not track west/inland even though they dump a lot of precipitation along the coast.

 

[Patrick]

Off hand I don't have a clue on the historical seasonal snow numbers, but I'm looking at what is happening now in Australia ski areas. Damn I'd like to go back.

 

[Tony Crocker]

The Spencer's Creek snow depth graph is not operational yet for 2022. Since 1954 its average snow depth June 8 is 26cm, and since 1993 it's only 16cm. It was 77cm in 2000, which is by far the most of the past 50+ years. People on the Aussie ski forum think there is at least as much snow as in 2000. The only hard number I can find is 106cm new snow in the past week at Perisher.

Open areas are less than 20% open and these are not large areas. It's likely staffing issues, as speculated on the forum, and what we saw here last December. The upcoming weekend (when Threbdo will open) is an Aussie holiday, may have liftlines like last Christmas.

 

[ChrisC]

The Australia snowfall pics look pretty impressive.

 

[Patrick]

Open areas are less than 20% open and these are not large areas. It's likely staffing issues, as speculated on the forum,

I haven’t checked on the snow reports and open terrain. I can see issues on getting that terrain and road open.

 

[Sbooker]

Oz doing nicely and NZ South Island has had snow too. Let’s hope the good weather continues for the Southern Hemisphere.

Snow Report | Cardrona NZ

The Cardrona Snow Report is updated from 6.30am daily, with up-to-date information on weather conditions, snow conditions, lift status and more.

new.cardrona.com

Webcam looks great.

 

[Sbooker]

Ohau this morning.

 

[Tony Crocker]

The summary report from SnoCountry confirms the one meter plus of snowfall in the past week. It's now Saturday in Australia and areas are 20-40% open. Cardrona is the only area open in NZ, so there may some new snow but not enough to induce much in the way of early openings.