Oz/NZ 2025

OpenSnow's bug is back: a constant moisture flow to Mount Hutt creating 22" of new snow for the entire month of June.

It's interesting because the reports are not coming from the model; they claim to be from the website (with a timestamp), not an estimate.

1751128768615.png


But here are actuals:

1751128818871.png





This person cannot be bothered to even look at New Zealand Reports/Snowfall History - it's part of their job, but I guess they forward the update forecast and drop it in, and then leave.

1751129074156.png






Well, it's a record season in NZ, nearing 300" by July 1st.

1751129304620.png




We are at 668 cm according to OpenSnow, compared to 263 cm on the Official Mt Hutt site, which is only a 250-300% difference.



This slightly irritates me because there are only really 20 ski areas to track in the Southern Hemisphere, and the model estimates are so opaque and pure confirmation-biased.
 
Sbooker said:
I'm eying a couple of days last minute at Mt Buller if they get a base happening and I see a period of clear weather. I've never skied at Buller and their day ticket price is comparatively reasonable at only $144 midweek if bought the day before. Hotham and Falls (Vail) are pricier and further from Melbourne.
Click to expand...

How do most people get to the Australian ski areas? Where do you fly into?
  • Canberra: Peisher, Thredbo, and Charlotte Pass?
  • Melbourne: Hotham, Buller?
I typed all the resorts into AI Bots, and it seemed like a lot of driving and wasted time; Sydney is almost a non-starter.

Given that my Epic Pass does not include Australia for 2025, I have no desire to pay Australian lift ticket prices, parking fees, other fees, and remote lodging costs for the beauty of skiing next to the cool trees. Following the US collusion/duopoly of Atlerra/Vail and its price-fixing scheme of $300/day walk-up tickets, Australia appears to be the second-worst value in the world for skiing.

I think my trip to Niseko covered Australian skiing culture; we went out on the night of Australia Day - scary! Do not allow any of you to drink from beer bottles! I think all the Aussies ended up outside the bars wanting to fight each other.

It makes St. Anton look safe at either:
  • 8 pm when people ski down in the dark from 2 pm apres from the Moosewirt/Krazy Kangaroo, or
  • Standing next to a British guy/girl trying to stand straight in ski boots at 12-1 am when they are likely to fall over and spill your beer.
 
ChrisC said:
How do most people get to the Australian ski areas? Where do you fly into?
  • Canberra: Peisher, Thredbo, and Charlotte Pass?
  • Melbourne: Hotham, Buller?
Click to expand...
Correct. Some take the cheap flights and car rental at Sydney.

ChrisC said:
think my trip to Niseko covered Australian skiing culture; we went out on the night of Australia Day - scary! Do not allow any of you to drink from beer bottles! I think all the Aussies ended up outside the bars wanting to fight each other.
Click to expand...
Niseko is now known as ‘Bali on snow’. It attracts all the Aussie bogans. That behaviour is not typical of Australian behaviour in general.
 
I had some e-mail correspondence with Joel yesterday. Earlier he had informed me:
For all snow report history, note that a yellow underline in the calendar shows that the value is estimated by use using multiple weather models, and data in cells that do NOT have a yellow underline is pulled directly from the resort.
Click to expand...
Upon closer examination of few areas on OpenSnow yesterday, I determined that there are 3 possible descriptions of any calendar month posted below the calendar.
1) Historical snowfall, base depth, and operating details are reported by the resort. OpenSnow does not verify this data.
2) Historical snowfall, base depth, and operating details are reported by the resort via SnoCountry. OpenSnow does not verify this data.
3) Historical snowfall and base depth numbers are calculated from resort reports (where available) and OpenSnow estimates, and may be adjusted to match official data.
Click to expand...
The Mt. Hutt page on OpenSnow has #1 displayed, reported by the resort. Joel replied,
Resorts change their page layouts all the time and we need to be better about updating our system when new layouts occur. We'll get Mt Hutt fixed.
Click to expand...
He's right about resorts fiddling with their snow report webpages. Every season I have to revise some of the links on my snow reports page.

The via SnoCountry data can be problematic too. I pointed out that OpenSnow for Obergurgl totaled 11 inches of snow 11/1 - 3/31, all of those months allegedly reported by SnoCountry (description#2 below). Joel replied,
For Europe, Snocountry is terrible and we'll likely stop pulling from them (eg. Obergurgl's zeros came from Snocountry).
Click to expand...
St. Anton's 204 inches looked more reasonable but Dec-Mar were reported directly by the resort (description#1 below). So maybe the high profile places have better reporting? Nah! Les Arcs and Val d'Isere on OpenSnow are both using description #3, meaning historical snowfall is based on the weather models.

So I have some sympathy for what OpenSnow is doing. We really shouldn't use weather models to tally past snowfall, but OpenSnow is upfront about what they are doing and that it's not reliable. It's not as much of a distortion as using incomplete data from a resort and reporting zero for any date when the resort doesn't report. I believe OpenSnow uses incomplete data plus model data when the resort doesn't report.

For most resorts OpenSnow will generally show description #3 in April when those areas close sometime during the month. Presumably that means using the models after closing date. I checked that Mammoth and A-Basin show description #1 in April and May.
 
Last edited:
jamesdeluxe said:
A couple adverts from this campaign were playing on my flight to Denver yesterday:

Click to expand...
There's nothing in that advert in the way of landscapes that are unique to Australia. And we're hard to get to. And our individual landscape jewels are very dispersed with often not a lot in between. I personally think Australia is a less than ideal destination for most people that live in the Northern Hemisphere. (Maybe Japan/Korea/China excluded). Still for them a lot of time and a lot of money is needed unless it's one small region being explored.
My opinion only of course.
 
Sbooker said:
There's nothing in that advert in the way of landscapes that are unique to Australia. And we're hard to get to. And our individual landscape jewels are very dispersed with often not a lot in between. I personally think Australia is a less than ideal destination for most people that live in the Northern Hemisphere. (Maybe Japan/Korea/China excluded). Still for them a lot of time and a lot of money is needed unless it's one small region being explored.
My opinion only of course.
Click to expand...

I believe this, too, to an extent.

I spent several days in Sydney (great! Favorite city!), a day and a half in Airlie Beach/Whitsunday Islands, and a Great Barrier Reef Live Aboard (4 nights/4 days_ (a good call by my more educated Scuba friends - south side of reef - no bleaching/no day trippers (Cairns)/no one else).

However, doing more is challenging: we didn't rent a car and want to drive to the Blue Mountains (compared to California?). Melbourne would have been great, but another flight, and skiing would be more than a trip to the Alps. Brisbane (layover) looked like a scene from Florida (and I've seen Muriel's Wedding, so I understand) - heck, it even has the same nickname "Gold Coast" - Brisbane/Palm Beach/Ft. Lauderdale/Miami.

Additionally, New Zealand is more compact: it's easy to do some things in Auckland/North Island on a layover, and the South Island offers Queenstown (skiing, hiking, bungee jumping, Shotover boats, paragliding, etc.), Milford Sound, and the Franz Joseph Glacier/Mt. Cooke and Marlborough (kayaking/wine county).

I am more apt to return to New Zealand than Australia.

However, the Olympics in Brisbane and Melbourne could be a lot of fun. (I am not sure how Brisbane is going to pull off the Olympics, after the 2004 Summer Games bankrupted Greece. Now, the corrupt Olympic Committee (have you seen its Castle HQ in Lusanne, Switzerland?!) only picks Super Cities from the G8.)

And Ayers Rock....that's a journey not quite worth the reward.
 
Having said the above I expect to do a series of partial ‘laps’ of Oz when I can do it economically (campervan or caravan) and without time restriction. It will work well as I wouldn’t do it in our summer (which is northern winter).
 
I'd be happy to visit Australia but not quite enough for a 23-hour flight itinerary. For something of that duration, Japan in winter (Chitose?) would get the nod at 17 hours.
 
jamesdeluxe said:
I'd be happy to visit Australia but not quite enough for a 23-hour flight itinerary. For something of that duration, Japan in winter (Chitose?) would get the nod at 17 hours.
Click to expand...

What, you do not want to "raw dog" a flight map for 24 hours?

Once I am on a flight for more than four hours, I no longer care about the flight length. It does not matter to me. There is always more series to watch, a book to read, or work to be done.

I still don't understand why you refuse to fly or ski to Tahoe, BC, etc., yet do redeyes to Europe? :):beating-a-dead-horse:

I just found that I have health, fitness, and income now, so it's time to do whatever I can. (It's especially depressing to watch classmates and co-workers give up anything athletic by 40/50 years old).

"Raw-dogging a flight" refers to the practice of enduring a flight, often a long-haul one, without any of the usual in-flight entertainment or amenities. This means no movies, music, books, or even food or water in some cases. The term has gained popularity on social media, particularly among young men who view it as a means to challenge themselves and showcase mental fortitude.
 
Last edited:
jamesdeluxe said:
I never heard that one.
Click to expand...

Just consider yourself fortunate to not work with lots of tech bros and/or Millennial/GenZ guys who like nothing more than trading crypto/options, multi-player gaming, and listening to podcasts (i.e., Joe Rogan, etc).

Discussions/dick-waving on raw-dogging obscenely long flights are a badge of honor and all too familiar...#BayAreaTechBos
 
ChrisC said:
I just found that I have health, fitness, and income now, so it's time to do whatever I can.
Click to expand...
That was my attitude but ChrisC takes it to a different level. Once I had the means mid-40's to improve my ski experience some, I still had to prioritize in view of the $%!# I would take from my dropped-out-of-skiing ex-wife. So that became the one week a year in Canada including a few days of cat/heli.
ChrisC said:
I still don't understand why you refuse to fly or ski to Tahoe, BC, etc., yet do redeyes to Europe?
Click to expand...
Because James is similarly constrained to the one-week-at-a-time model by family obligations. So he sticks to top priority (the Alps) just as I did 1997-2004 (western Canada, Iron Blosam, NASJA annual meetings). As I may have mentioned before, my first Euro ski trip (NASJA subsidized to Chamonix in 2004) was the straw that broke the camel's back in precipitating my divorce. And with that constraint removed, pre-retirement I only went to the Alps one more time. The added skiing came more from increasing my Mammoth/Utah/Canada trips plus I skied in the Southern Hemisphere the first 3 years after divorce.

The frequent skiing in Europe for me did not happen until I retired and Liz came on the scene.

ChrisC said:
(It's especially depressing to watch classmates and co-workers give up anything athletic by 40/50 years old).
Click to expand...
Wait till you see what they are not doing in their 60s and 70s! I'm complaining about slowing down but overall the glass is still more than half full.
 
ChrisC said:
I believe this, too, to an extent, about Australia.
Click to expand...
I see the point, but I have been 4x, once for Adam's Los Angeles Children's Choir tour in 1997, and 3x for eclipses. Once you're there, it's easy to find a couple of weeks more worth of interesting activities. There are two more eclipses coming up in 2028 and 2030.
ChrisC said:
skiing would be more than a trip to the Alps.
Click to expand...
I noticed Aussie skiing was expensive even in 1997. But I was in Canberra on the tour, so the marginal cost to run down to Thredbo for a day was modest.
ChrisC said:
scene from Florida......it even has the same nickname "Gold Coast" - Brisbane/Palm Beach/Ft. Lauderdale/Miami.
Click to expand...
You need to go the other direction (north) from Brisbane: Noosa, Rainbow Beach, Fraser Island, quiet and beautiful.
ChrisC said:
And Ayers Rock....that's a journey not quite worth the reward.
Click to expand...
We were lured by the final chance to climb it in 2019. But it's best to combine that with Top End Australia as we did, and don't even think about those destinations other than in the dead of winter.
ChrisC said:
I am more apt to return to New Zealand than Australia.
Click to expand...
No argument there. I've been 6x.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top