powderfreak
New member
Yes. I did just see the 12z GFS. Yes. This is why I'm posting. Yes.
Someone will still get a very nice snowstorm out of this. Only problem
is...will it be useful in a mountainous area?
All along I knew that the Boston suburbs would have a significant
snowfall. Now, if it snows a foot in Lowell, MA is that good for
anything? I do think that right away from the coastal areas, there will
be a zone with 10-14" snows. This might even extend all the way back
towards Worcester and then up towards Condcord, NH depending on where a
deformation band sets up. Can you say Wachusett on Monday evening?
I would not throw out the idea of significant snows for the Berkshires-
Southern VT-Central and Southern NH-ME. 4-8 is still possible (although
that's not what I'm calling for yet) in those areas and looks good even if
the coastal system has nothing to do with it because the clipper moving
through along with orographics should have enough moisture + lift to
produce snowfall.
Anyway, back to the main show. I hate doing this, but I'm going to ride
the GFS right here. Why? The EURO is useless inside of 3-4 days. The
ETA has not come into its limelight yet which is 0-60hrs (past 60hrs the
resolution changes and you get funky stuff). This leaves the GFS and it
does occasionally do something right in the 2-4 day range. It is a
perfect midrange model. ETA is short term, EURO is long term...plus throw
in the Canadian occasionally. That's my model preference.
With that said, I do think the GFS might have the right idea. However, I
am weary of the patterns I have noticed over the past couple years. That
is, you get inside of a certain time, the models lose the original idea
(which is usually around day 5 because after that the GFS is useless),
trend to a different idea, and then within 48 hours trend back out to the
original. So far with this storm system here is the pattern: days 5-7 we
had a solid snowstorm for much of New England...days 4-5 we've got
nothing...now day 3 we are back in it. Does it keep trending to keep us
in it? Or does it go back to its 4-5 day solution?
Negatives:
1. No -NAO. Its really hard to get anything to sit and spin long enough
to bring appreciable snowfall without a -NAO.
2. Cold Air Coming in Reallly fast. There will be an incredibly dry,
cold, arctic airmass right behind the system. Does it dry out the low
levels too quickly to allow for significant precipitation except for right
near the surface low which will be well off the coast of Cape Cod.
3. Strong Pacific Jet. This thing will make sure this storm system keeps
moving...will it strengthen quick enough before becoming only a storm the
fish will remember?
4. Another strong clipper is right behind it. This will act as a kicker
and won't let the storm hang around for long. Its a progressive pattern.
So there are plenty of negatives that are making me very uncomfortable.
Especially the new kicker coming right behind the system. The reason the
ETA has no large snowstorm for anyone is because that clipper behind it is
extremely strong. I think that's overdone. But its something I have to
watch. The strong pacific jet could cause this to dig further south and
strengthen far enough south that only southern New England and the
Atlantic Ocean get snowfall.
So with all of this said...taking the GFS at face value, shows a 6+ inch
snowstorm for a large portion of southern-central New England. Temps will
be cold and fluff factor could be high. So here are my numbers through
12am Tuesday (note, some of these areas may see snowfall only from Sunday
Night into Monday):
Catskills: 2-4" with clipper system, no coastal imput.
Berkshires: 2-7" from western slopes to eastern slopes.
Southern Vermont: 2-5" with most on eastern half.
Central Vermont: 1-4" with most on eastern half.
Northern Vermont: 2-5"...they somehow always get snow regardless of if
there's a storm or not...clipper/upslope with moisture will allow for some
fluff as well as just having vort maxes rotating through the area will
allow for enough dynamics that the N.VT powder mountains crank out some
fluff.
Northern Massachusetts: 6-12" with locally up to 14" depending on where
deformation band sets up. Highest amounts in the east, least in the west.
Southern New Hampshire: 6-12" highest in the SE lowering as you move NW.
Central New Hampshire: 4-8" of light fluff. Again, most in SE and up
against eastern facing mountain slopes. Less in NW and on western facing
slopes.
Northern New Hampshire: 2-4" in far north. Again, with the higher peaks,
just a little bit of dynamics and moisture will allow for some snowfall.
Southwest Maine (Sugarloaf, Sunday River): 5-10" with most on southeast
facing slopes.
Ok. With all of that laid out. If the 12z GFS is right, my amounts in
southern and central Vermont will need to be doubled. But I think the
storm will remain progressive and stay off-shore far enough to miss those
areas. I'm going to be traveling the next 24hrs and will try to find
somewhere to post or look for updates...but I'll be in Boston tonight and
then driving back to Albany tomorrow night. I will update tomorrow night
at some point.
-Scott
Someone will still get a very nice snowstorm out of this. Only problem
is...will it be useful in a mountainous area?
All along I knew that the Boston suburbs would have a significant
snowfall. Now, if it snows a foot in Lowell, MA is that good for
anything? I do think that right away from the coastal areas, there will
be a zone with 10-14" snows. This might even extend all the way back
towards Worcester and then up towards Condcord, NH depending on where a
deformation band sets up. Can you say Wachusett on Monday evening?
I would not throw out the idea of significant snows for the Berkshires-
Southern VT-Central and Southern NH-ME. 4-8 is still possible (although
that's not what I'm calling for yet) in those areas and looks good even if
the coastal system has nothing to do with it because the clipper moving
through along with orographics should have enough moisture + lift to
produce snowfall.
Anyway, back to the main show. I hate doing this, but I'm going to ride
the GFS right here. Why? The EURO is useless inside of 3-4 days. The
ETA has not come into its limelight yet which is 0-60hrs (past 60hrs the
resolution changes and you get funky stuff). This leaves the GFS and it
does occasionally do something right in the 2-4 day range. It is a
perfect midrange model. ETA is short term, EURO is long term...plus throw
in the Canadian occasionally. That's my model preference.
With that said, I do think the GFS might have the right idea. However, I
am weary of the patterns I have noticed over the past couple years. That
is, you get inside of a certain time, the models lose the original idea
(which is usually around day 5 because after that the GFS is useless),
trend to a different idea, and then within 48 hours trend back out to the
original. So far with this storm system here is the pattern: days 5-7 we
had a solid snowstorm for much of New England...days 4-5 we've got
nothing...now day 3 we are back in it. Does it keep trending to keep us
in it? Or does it go back to its 4-5 day solution?
Negatives:
1. No -NAO. Its really hard to get anything to sit and spin long enough
to bring appreciable snowfall without a -NAO.
2. Cold Air Coming in Reallly fast. There will be an incredibly dry,
cold, arctic airmass right behind the system. Does it dry out the low
levels too quickly to allow for significant precipitation except for right
near the surface low which will be well off the coast of Cape Cod.
3. Strong Pacific Jet. This thing will make sure this storm system keeps
moving...will it strengthen quick enough before becoming only a storm the
fish will remember?
4. Another strong clipper is right behind it. This will act as a kicker
and won't let the storm hang around for long. Its a progressive pattern.
So there are plenty of negatives that are making me very uncomfortable.
Especially the new kicker coming right behind the system. The reason the
ETA has no large snowstorm for anyone is because that clipper behind it is
extremely strong. I think that's overdone. But its something I have to
watch. The strong pacific jet could cause this to dig further south and
strengthen far enough south that only southern New England and the
Atlantic Ocean get snowfall.
So with all of this said...taking the GFS at face value, shows a 6+ inch
snowstorm for a large portion of southern-central New England. Temps will
be cold and fluff factor could be high. So here are my numbers through
12am Tuesday (note, some of these areas may see snowfall only from Sunday
Night into Monday):
Catskills: 2-4" with clipper system, no coastal imput.
Berkshires: 2-7" from western slopes to eastern slopes.
Southern Vermont: 2-5" with most on eastern half.
Central Vermont: 1-4" with most on eastern half.
Northern Vermont: 2-5"...they somehow always get snow regardless of if
there's a storm or not...clipper/upslope with moisture will allow for some
fluff as well as just having vort maxes rotating through the area will
allow for enough dynamics that the N.VT powder mountains crank out some
fluff.
Northern Massachusetts: 6-12" with locally up to 14" depending on where
deformation band sets up. Highest amounts in the east, least in the west.
Southern New Hampshire: 6-12" highest in the SE lowering as you move NW.
Central New Hampshire: 4-8" of light fluff. Again, most in SE and up
against eastern facing mountain slopes. Less in NW and on western facing
slopes.
Northern New Hampshire: 2-4" in far north. Again, with the higher peaks,
just a little bit of dynamics and moisture will allow for some snowfall.
Southwest Maine (Sugarloaf, Sunday River): 5-10" with most on southeast
facing slopes.
Ok. With all of that laid out. If the 12z GFS is right, my amounts in
southern and central Vermont will need to be doubled. But I think the
storm will remain progressive and stay off-shore far enough to miss those
areas. I'm going to be traveling the next 24hrs and will try to find
somewhere to post or look for updates...but I'll be in Boston tonight and
then driving back to Albany tomorrow night. I will update tomorrow night
at some point.
-Scott
