Snow and Ice for this evening through Monday morning

P

powderfreak

New member
Looking at the radar this morning, we have precipitation stretching from <BR>south-central NY all the way back into Des Moines, IA. Rain to the south, <BR>significant sleet and freezing rain in the middle and a swath of snow to <BR>the north. Chicago to Detroit should be the axis of heaviest snow through <BR>tonight with 6-12 inches of accumulation. I have some good and bad news <BR>for the northeast. Good news is...there will be no liquid rain for the <BR>mountains from the 'Dacks to the Greens and Whites. The bad news is, <BR>there might not be as much snow as currently forecasted, which is 4-8 <BR>inches. The recent 12z models have shown a trend to surpress the precip <BR>southward, with not much getting north of the Killington-Rutland <BR>region...namely the GFS and NGM models. The ETA still blasts significant <BR>precip up to Burlington-Stowe to the tune of .5-.75 in liquid but it would <BR>all fall as snow with periods of sleet possible. The ETA would still <BR>warrent the 4-8 inch forecasted amounts. If the GFS and NGM verfy, <BR>however, the .5-.75 liquid precip line doesn't get north of <BR>Manchester,VT. With around .25 in the Burlington-Stowe area. This would <BR>only produce snowfall more to the tune of 2-4 inches. The storm should be <BR>weakening as it moves to the east, and precip will stream ENE to almost <BR>due east. This sets up perfectly for a little orographic enhancement for <BR>the Green Mountains which run almost due north-south. <BR> <BR>Axis of heaviest precip should be from the southern tier of NY through and <BR>just south of Albany and just to the south of the northern Mass border. <BR>Over and inch to an inch and a half of liquid is possible in these areas. <BR>Model sounding profiles and model output statistics show a significant <BR>amount of sleet in through the northern tier of the heaviest precip and <BR>there should be a band of very significant freezing rain. ETA brings this <BR>significant ice through the Catskills in Greene County to the southern <BR>Berkshires and between RT2 and the Mass Pike. <BR> <BR>This should be an interesting little storm and has at least got me a <BR>little excited with the possibility of significant winter weather for <BR>parts of the northeast. The Killington region might be the best bet right <BR>now for most snow with least amount of sleet. Further north it could be <BR>all snow but amounts should be less. Up to 8 inches still looks good for <BR>most of the Green Mountains, however, as they usually do seem to pick up <BR>the lions share of most storms. Look out for ice further south from the <BR>NYS thruway southward to the NY-PA border and again the MA-CT border. <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
Just when we're back to work and school, the snow comes back ! <BR> <BR>crual mother nature ! (and when I'll be on the slopes wednesday morning at Tremblant, nothing of this little stuff will still be visible...)
 
I would like to be on the west coast now. <BR> <BR>Timberline got something like 50-75" of snow in the next week and it looks to be a gigantic heavy stuff going to reach it, this week. I don't know if it will be some snow or rain, though (I didn't look the temperature) <BR> <BR><A HREF="www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_096m.gif"> GFS 96h look on the west coast... ouch !</A>
 
Just in case you wanted to know.... <BR> <BR>New snow totals (inches) in the past 2 weeks: <BR> <BR>Mammoth 118 <BR>Squaw 99 <BR>Kirkwood 143 <BR>Targhee 87 <BR>Jackson 84 <BR>Alta 128 <BR>Snowbird 124 <BR>Jupiter Bowl 126 <BR>Snowbasin 107 <BR>Wolf Creek 85 <BR>Crested Butte 82 <BR>Durango 73 <BR>Telluride 64 <BR>Aspen 57 <BR>Steamboat 50 <BR>Bachelor 59 <BR>Sun Valley 51 <BR> <BR>... and as Frank points out, we're not done yet.
 
Thanks for those numbers, Tony. Seems like every couple of days I've gone to check the Alta, Mammoth, or Squaw websites there is another 20-40 inches of new snow. Awesome. How's south Cali doing? Are they getting hit with the same systems or are they moving in too far north? <BR> <BR>-Scott
 
mammoth- 118 in 2 weeks?... i think loon averages about 120 a year.. i wonder if the mamas and and the papas were thinking about skiing when they wrote " california dreamin ". the preacher man may have liked it cold, but wonder if he liked snow? if i lived in mammoth, i'd be a bum... there's no doubt about it
 
It is amazing how SoCal, Arizona and New Mexico are still coming up short in snow. Usually the intensity of snowfall fades out gradually as you move away from the center of the storm track. But this time Brian Head, Telluride, Durango get 5-6 feet since Christmas and it's only 1-2 feet at Taos (31% open with no expert runs) and Arizona Snowbowl (still not open) and rain and drizzle here in SoCal. The SoCal mountains had 15 inches in November and 3 in December. The Big Bear Lake areas are about 2/3 open on snowmaking. This Saturday at Big Bear will be my latest ever first day of the ski season. But I will then spend MLK weekend at Mammoth, which has a 10-12 foot base and will probably be skiable to July 4 for the first time since 1998. <BR> <BR>At Mammoth there is such a thing as too much snow. My son was up there from Dec. 27 - Jan. 2 and I will post details of that somewhat frustrating experience soon. <BR> <BR>I still post season progress reports for North America every week at <A HREF="http://bestsnow.net/seas04.htm" TARGET="_top">http://bestsnow.net/seas04.htm</A>. Format has changed some as I am supplying this info to L.A. Times now.
 
Temperatures are going to be good for snowmaking. Since you already paid over $400, you should go. They will make snow and groom all over the mountain. And who knows...maybe it will snow when you are up there. <BR> <BR>This is from the marketing dept, so beware: <BR> <BR><A HREF="http://www.sugarloaf.com/daily_update/" TARGET="_top">http://www.sugarloaf.com/daily_update/</A>
 
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